USC Dornsife/LA Times Election Poll: Trump lead widens day after debate

USC Dornsife ^ | September 28, 2016

[BlueStateRightist]

This chart tracks our best estimate, over time, of how America plans to vote in November.

[Principled]

Welcome to FR Ciaphas Cain.

I too see that this defeat will be unbearable for Hillary. My fear is that she will go batshot crazy and try to have Trump hurt... I can imagine her saying “I had to do it...don’t you see? I had to!”

I’m gratified that more people are choosing to not see through the liberal/msm worldview and Trump is pulling away...can’t wait for November 8. Best election since 1980.

[Ciaphas Cain]

Thank you Principled. I was kind of shocked that this screenname wasn’t already being used LOL. I’ve been watching from the peanut gallery awhile. Decided to join in the fun!

[nathanbedford]

I find no evidence whatsoever that Donald tramp intends to cut the deficit or reduce the debt by cutting spending.

He wants to cut taxes and increase military spending and massively increase in her spending on infrastructure. The only cuts that he recommends are "waste fraud and abuse," the shopworn siren of politicians who never seem to cut anything. A cursory review of the federal budget reveals that it is entitlements that are the cause of the overruns and Donald Trump has expressed no inclination whatsoever to cut any entitlement, indeed, he wants to create a whole new entitlement.

Trump's only solution to runaway deficits and mounting and catastrophic debt is to grow our way out of these difficulties which he proposes to do by cutting taxes and increasing economic activity, cutting regulation and increasing economic activity, by renegotiating trade deals and increasing domestic manufacturing activity; and repatriating corporate funds from abroad increasing domestic economic activity.

As to looking to the House and Senate, even if Donald Trump has an epiphany and wants to cut spending, do we really have any hope that Mitch McConnell will go along? He already has scheduled votes on the budget post election in the lame-duck time so that he can increase spending.

We better pray that the economy does grow and we better pray the Janet Yellin keeps interest rates under control so that there can be a "beautiful" rate of growth.

[InterceptPoint]

There is nothing in your post that I disagree with. But a couple of points:

1. Cutting entitlements. As a practical matter you can no longer run for President on this plank. Sad to say but true. We now attempt to elect Presidents who will slow down that train. Clearly Trump is a far, far better choice than the Marxist Hillary with that as a goal.

2. Cutting Regulations. Trump made a big point of this in the debate. I noticed. I hope others did as well. We are over-regulated in this country in the extreme. If he is serious about this he can cut the reach of the Federal Government into our business, industries, homes, kitchens and bedrooms. That is a good thing. That will boost economic progress. It will at least inch us toward bringing back some of the manufacturing jobs to this country. And it would be a huge boost for the energy industry if we just get the Global Warming Foolishness out of our regulatory system.

[Sir Napsalot]

Yep.

My local news kept repeating Hillary shouting ‘Have you seen the debate’ at a rally yesterday and all the pundit class empty heads declaring her the debate winner all day long.

Just wait for more frequent and much louder “Trump supporters are less educated, less well-to-do, less ..., less ....” etc. etc. As if that will win over voters for Hillary. But. Let them keep that up.

[petercooper]

Dingell Norwood????

[GLDNGUN]

A word of caution as I have noted before, it takes a week for a new event to be baked into this week. His bump reflects something that happened a week ago, perhaps the riots in North Carolina. He’s the “law and order” candidate, while Clinton is the “blame the cop” candidate.

[mason-dixon]

The 26 September event was not a debate/contest to be "won" by some sort of points scoring. It was a marketing event... Trump's first opportunity to "pitch" to those voters who are not yet on the Trump Train.

He is approaching this like a salesman, knowing he has 3 meetings in order to make the sale. First task, done on 26 September, is to prove he is trustable and not the demon which Hillary's ads and MSM have painted him.. so he should not be too emotional or attacking. Second Task, to be done at next event, is to illustrate that the current supplier (ie Obama/Clinton) is not satisfying the needs of the uncommitted or Democrat leaning voter. Third Task, to be done at the last event, is to demonstrate the value of his product (Trump as president & Republicans in charge) and close the sale.

[Pravious]

“It’s like the primaries all over again. The pundits and the Luntz focus group declare Rubio the winner, dismiss all the online polls and we know what happens next.”

Thanks for the reminder. I’ll never forget that debate! It ends and ALL the commentators can talk about is Rubio, Rubio, Rubio - while all the while the camera ignores everyone else and stays focused on.. you guessed it, Rubio, showing his wonderful, adorable, family. And, by the way, have we mentioned how impressive Rubio was? Now, we’re going to go to our focus group, who will surprise all of us by all agreeing that Rubio crushed everyone else in the debate... ah, memories!

Such utter, complete media corruption. They’re an even worse danger to this country than the politicians.

[oblomov]

Living among NYC progressives clarifies my thinking and has only reinforced my conservative beliefs.

There is an active and engaged right wing subculture in Manhattan. Conservative groups are libertarian-friendly, and vice versa. Some well known authors and conservative public figures mingle with ordinary conservatives and are accessible and friendly. It’s a lot more fun to be a conservative in NYC than it was in the Midwest.

[cgbg]

Initially I was not happy with Trump’s performance—as a former debater myself I was frustrated with his failure to come up with the best answers—I also wanted him to slam dunk the “moderator”.

But, on reflection, the Donald was right and I (and the MSM and many other experts) got it wrong. This was not about debating points but rather about the likeability factor.

Donald came across as a nice normal guy and Hillary came across as the pompous policy wonk stiff jerk that everybody loves to hate.

Donald made beaucoup bucks and yet he isn’t smooth on the stump—he is the personification of the American dream—the idea that anyone can make it regardless of how smooth they talk or how much they know about the intricacies of legislation.

The states that will decide this election—Wisconsin, PA, Michigan, Ohio—these are states where the “normal folks” pay no attention to the NY Times and do pay attention when their jobs and the jobs of their friends and family are shipped overseas by policy wonks.

[HamiltonJay]

The claim that Hillary won the debate is a valid argument, but she lost the election because as I have pointed out repeatedly no one cares... The undecideds weren’t watching to see who would win, they were watching because the only reason they were undecided was because they were not sure if they could support Trump. They had long ago decided they would not support Hillary. Nothing she said or did was going to get them to vote for her.

They just needed assured that Trump was not the crazy racist that the media and left have claimed he is for the last year.

So arguing she won the debate on points can be made, but it doesn’t matter.

Polling indicate Trump won the voters with him getting undecideds to decide to vote for him at a 3 to 1 margin. While polls do show slightly more viewers polled though Hillary won the debate.

[NYC-RepublicanCT]

Progressives? I’d say they are marxists

[epluribus_2]

My answer would be that Noone cares about the nyt in Michigan but if the Democrats really are worried about Mi, Pa, and WI in September thus election is already over.

[commish]

My favorite debate “winner” was Al Gore in 2000.

Ah yes, Al Gore definitely put the election in a lock box with his Dingell-Norwood that night!

[Paradox]

This is a rolling poll, 7 days if I recall correctly, so while I am heartened that one days worth of post debate polling has seemed to increase Trumps lead, this slight uptick is well within the margin of error. I am cautiously optimistic, but realistic, and will breath better once I see a few other polls, and see the results of this one after 7 days.

[Ancesthntr]

No, she won’t do that. She will follow All Gore’s path: go into seclusion, fatten up by 50 pounds and grow an ugly beard.

[Ciaphas Cain]

Sounds like a reality TV show in the making. She can make it pay per view. $5,000 for an entire season.

[InterceptPoint]

A word of caution as I have noted before, it takes a week for a new event to be baked into this week. His bump reflects something that happened a week ago, perhaps the riots in North Carolina. He’s the “law and order” candidate, while Clinton is the “blame the cop” candidate.

True enough. But 1/7th of the 2600 or so participants voted yesterday after, I assume, most viewed the debate.

So this could be an uptick due to a Trump "Victory" in the debate or an uptick from a partial cancellation of the downtick from from 7 days ago. There is really no way to tell from just this one data point.

But even a small uptick is welcomed. If Hillary had the big day that the MSM is touting that uptick and the Internet Popularity Contests that are referred to as Snap Polls should be keeping the Dems awake at night. Very good news for our side.

OTOH, if we see a Hillary recovery over the next few days in this poll I will personally concede that the MSM was correct and Hillary won. I don't think that is going to happen but we will know for sure by the weekend.

[flaglady47]

“As to looking to the House and Senate, even if Donald Trump has an epiphany and wants to cut spending, do we really have any hope that Mitch McConnell will go along? He already has scheduled votes on the budget post election in the lame-duck time so that he can increase spending.”

Then vote for Hillary Clinton. I’m sure she’ll do the job much better.