Posted on 09/27/2016 1:37:46 PM PDT by Ravi
9/26/16: DEM-4,116,095; GOP-3,200,191; UAF-1,142,543
11/4/14: DEM-4,088,149; GOP-3,030,017; UAF-1,132,884
11/6/12: DEM-4,266,317; GOP-3,131,144; UAF-1,110,554
(Excerpt) Read more at dos.pa.gov ...
That is a positive trend with regard to voting registration. The gap has narrowed between D’s and R’s.
so I get (from 2012):
Dems: -150,222
GOP: +69,047
UAF: +31,989
D losses=150,000
R gains +69,000
Net: Rgain+Dloss=219,000
So, he really only has to flip 35,000 (51% of 68,000, which is 287,000 - 219,000).
Right?
I’m always concerned with Is, which are +32,000 since 2012, and just for argument I ALWAYS count them as 100%D, so
Dloss=Rgain-I gains=90,000 x. 51%=real “flip” #=
46,000.
Yes this is true. Will these new registrations vote. I would think so. Will they vote their particular registration status. I believe they will. How will unaffiliated vote? I presume 50/50 but not entirely sure. So apples for apples, improved REGISTRATION stats compared to 2012/2014. We will see how this translates going forward.
Then there are those blue collar dimoKKKRATS who will vote for Trump. Trump has a very good chance to carry Pennsylvania.
As long as Philly does not have 150% turnout.
I think this is the year Pennsylvania stops teasing us and goes to Trump !!
And of those, 100% for Clinton (as happened in a few precincts with Obama/Romney.)
I don’t think your Math is correct.
If Obama won by 287,000=x votes, Trump needs(x/2)+1.
(287,000/2)+1 = 143,501
The 219,000 flop is enough as is.
And Bush/Kerry.
A PA Freeper posted they are getting carpet bombed with Clinton ads. That would indicate the Dems are fearful of the trend in PA
A lot of ads out here. I moved to PA recently and I’m registered - voting Trump all the way.
But you have to subtract from that 219,000 the LOST Ds (150,000) and additional new Rs since 2012.
Can we get a breakdown on these statistics so we know how many registered voters are:
a. Dead
b. Illegal aliens
c. Felons
d. Foreign national Islamic terrorists
Just discovered the Islamic terrorist, Arcan Cetin, 20 year old Turk who murdered 5 in Burlington, WA voted in the past 3 elections. He posted on social media that he planned to vote for Hillary. Care to take bets on his vote being counted in November?
Don’t forget many ‘D’s will be voting for Trump.
Registration is one thing and voting turn out within those registrants is another.
Yes, in at least the Harrisburg / Lancaster area and NE PA, there’s a commercial on every local channel, every segment during local news in the evenings, and most of the network news as well. (They don’t elbow out all the ads for big pharma though.) Might be the case in the mornings as well.
He almost certainly will not be convicted of a felony before voting day, so I think legally he’s entitled to vote. And you know prisons would have to do everything by the book to allow non-felons to vote.
I beg your pardon. I thought prisoners were allowed to vote from prison if they never had a felony conviction. I now see that is not correct — only a few states allow any prisoners to vote, and WA is not one of them.
https://www.aclu.org/map/state-criminal-re-enfranchisement-laws-map
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