Posted on 09/24/2016 9:40:51 PM PDT by NYRepublican72
The ABC WaPo (and most every poll) is weighted to reflect assumed party ID spread, demographics, and probabilities for registered/likely voters. random sample. They didn’t go into survey with set goal of D+10 but their model and assumptions are clearly skewed with a house bias towards the D. For instance they are assuming that x% of blacks will show up and y% of whites with college degree and z% of Hispanics. So how you weight these will impact the D/R split. That’s how they cut down from adult to registered to likely. Bottom line, they didn’t just find D+10 out of the phone book. It’s their house bias and special sauce.
It was my understanding that no pollster - except maybe a college poli sci class doing a poll as a class project — just calls up people and takes what they get as their sample. They all screen and/ or weight the raw sample to model the electorate that they think will actually vote. Wasn’t that what that recent NYT article said, the one that gave the same raw numbers to 5 pollsters and got 4 different results?
“D+4 for 2012 is not going to be too far off”
In 2004 when W got reelected the turnout was R+4 and W wasn’t even that popular.
Obama had unprecedented high turnout among minorities and millenials that no other dem has been able to replicate. That’s why they don’t have majorities in the house or the senate.
And Romney had turnout issues among evangelicals because of his religion.
It should be added Gallup exited the polling business in part because the difficulty of obtaining truly random sampling at a time when most people have cell phones and tweet or use IM online.
Take me. I tweet and being a deaf person, I neither have a landline phone or cell phone. I do have Skype/Yahoo IM installed because text chat compensates for my hearing loss. Pollsters can’t reach me and therefore that’s part of the bias built into present polling methods.
When you aren’t reaching Internet-era voters, your polling results are likely to be way off. We’ll see that again in November. Polling is junk science and Ouija boards have more reliability. There we are.
Heh. Have a 10 by 4 sign hanging in front of my garage. That is feet. I asked at the campaign headquarters how much for one of those. They just gave it to me. ;-) Pisses a few people off in the neighborhood, but they are idiots... so F em.
In my neck of the woods, I have seen one Trump sign in my neighborhood - no Hillary signs or bumper stickers.
In my rural region, there are liberals here but there appears to be scant enthusiasm for Hillary.
Trump sign on my front lawn. Hillary for Prison bumpersticker on my car in liberal NY, 20 miles or so away from the compound where Bill still d**ks bimbos. Zero damns given.
I normally keep my political views to myself, my friends and fellow FReepers, but Hillary calling us “Deplorables” really put me over the top.
We don’t need another crooked, unethical, immoral Clinton in the White House.
Where is your sign? ;-) Leave it off the car. At home, .... castle doctrine.
Id like to have a beer with you.
R +4 sounds like a return to normal.
Obama was the exception because of his biracial heritage and his broad appeal to Democrats, Independents and moderate Republicans.
Hillary doesn’t have that advantage and she also comes across as a hardcore leftist true believer. Obama had charisma and likability and Hillary doesn’t have those qualities in evidence.
No wonder she’s tanking in the polls.
GREAT NEWS about JOHNSON!!!!! #### you johnson!! your votes are going to Trump!!
I said on another thread I haven’t been this nervous since my last boxing match 23 years ago!!
And I’m not even getting in the ring!
Same thing I guess. No one can help you in the ring or on stage during a debate.
Except Trump wont have someone telling him he sucks and spitting in his face while he talks every three minutes :)
Here in Northern Kalifornia there are very, I mean VERY few presidential signs this year. You see a few Trump signs here and there, and once a month (I drive about 40000 miles a year through 4 different counties in my business, through residential neighborhoods) I see a Hitlary sign.
Bottom line - even in a state that will go Dummycrat for the rest of this century - is that there is ZERO “0” enthusiasm for Hitlary amongst regular Dummycrat voters.
Trump’s support, of course, runs “under cover” because people - especially in a state like this one - don’t want to be hassled.
Now he just has to be coherent, persuasive, presidential, and magnanimous on Monday Night ....
Trump knows the election is his to lose.
Hillary has the nearly impossible task of knocking him out or getting him to meltdown on national TV to change the dynamics of the race.
If its a draw, Trump wins and the rest of the debates won’t really matter.
Especially not the VP debate since no one votes for the VP.
Nice! I`ve had a yard sign since last year. I put a bumper sticker on my car a few weeks ago. The first week of i had the bumper sticker I had somebody tailgating me, which I suspect was related to the bumper sticker. But I set him straight. Since then, no problems.
LOL There is no way TRUMP is only up 5 with INDEPENDENTS in PA when he is up 20 with them in 3-5 other States!!
36% of “INDEPENDENT” ?
Independent - independent or independent - libtatds ?
That’s why obhamaSS is shamelessly campaining with and for clinton !
She can’t do it by herself AND BTW obama is a lying lame duck , a fake preacher third-world black activist
2012 was D+6 in actual turnout. D+10 is a joke.
Pollsters will do their best to keep polls in the margin of error or show Clinton lead in attempt to create that reality. That said, the excessive oversampling cannot cover the enthusiasm for Trump. The debates may become pivotal. While news events impact the election, I think tomorrow’s debate will set tone for balance of election.
I am so tired of this horse race crap I don't even watch. This is all for advertising revenue? Pathetic these media outlets are and the Consultants taking Hilda's $...
The one that got me was Brett Baird's chart of 269 vs 269 Electorally and Maine being the tie breaker. It was a variation of George Carlin's skit about the smart Alec in class asking the priest about eating a Hamburger @ 11:59pm on the verge of Lent at Sea and the Ship sinks after it crosses the international dateline.
At least Carlin was Funny...
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