At this point Trumps best bet is to assume he’ll take Florida. Focus attention on the other swing states.
Outlier poll and not just because it I want to be. Florida even by the tools over at MSNBC is a strong Trump lean. Florida is going Trump, he’s up 4-6 points depending on the poll. I think even election day there was a poll or two showing Romney winning.
The survey was conducted September 10-14, 2016 by telephone calls to 867 likely voters.
Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history.
This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, gender and race.