Posted on 09/19/2016 11:00:44 AM PDT by Viper652
I can't find the internals of this Florida poll
At this point Trumps best bet is to assume he’ll take Florida. Focus attention on the other swing states.
Outlier poll and not just because it I want to be. Florida even by the tools over at MSNBC is a strong Trump lean. Florida is going Trump, he’s up 4-6 points depending on the poll. I think even election day there was a poll or two showing Romney winning.
Anyone here have an opinion on 55% women to 45% men and also the percentages of bachelor and + grads vs. non-grads. Are those accurate for Florida?
The survey was conducted September 10-14, 2016 by telephone calls to 867 likely voters.
Calls were made to a stratified weighted sample of voters from the L-2 Voter list via both land and cell phones.
Interviews were conducted in English and Spanish.
A likely-to-vote probability was computed for each respondent based on both their stated likelihood to vote as well as by virtue of the imputation of a turnout probability score based on past voting behavior applied to their specific voting history.
This probability to vote was applied as a weight along with a weight that considered party registration, age, region, gender and race.
Seems a bit high, but I don’t have any empirical evidence to back that up.
Also, race/ethnicity only adds up to 93%. I dunno if the rest is Asian or what, but why didn’t they include that in the sample?? Maybe that missing 7% was something else like “too conservative” to be polled.
Way oversamples women, misses the FL massive GOP registration surge. Next.
I’ve seen alot of Gary Johnson ads in southwest FL trashing both Clinton and Trump. Hopefully he doesn’t hurt Trump too much. He uses the same clip Hillary uses where Trump is making weird faces, sounds and movements with his hands. Don’t know what that was all about. haha.
“likely-to-vote probability”...
I applaud the effort to find a reasonable “likely voter” profile but the Obama factor- racism- distorts the last two presidential elections.
People who want to vote against a Caucasian have no reason to turn out for Hillary!.
And they mix an historical ‘likely voter’ model with self-proclaimed ‘likely voters’ so one can’t adjust the results to match a different ‘likely voter’ profile.
So this poll is useless, except to the media.
Sienna + College = Bull$**t
Yep! I saw it this morning and saved that image in case someone posted a story about this poll :)
https://www.siena.edu/about/about-siena/fair-trade-status
Bull$**t College. The Current Pope probably approves this institution. Looks like Liberation Theology Central.
Women are 51% of the FL population.
Most polls apply their own “special sauce”.
Individually, they all need to be taken with a grain of salt.
It is more important to observe the trending.
Most poll ‘sauces’ aren’t special, they’re standard.
RV, LV by response, or LV by past history, or historical turnout.
Here, they mixed two standard methods and added a turnout model, so indeed it’s ‘special’.
It’s VERY special:
“The sample was balanced to match the demographic and political characteristics of active registered voters in the L2 voter file by age, race, gender, party registration, region and a modeled turnout score. The voter file data on respondents, not the self-reported information provided by respondents, was used for weighting.
Likely voters were determined by averaging a self-reported likely-voter screen and a modeled turnout score.
• Self-reported likely voters were those who indicated that they were “almost certain” or “very likely” to vote, or rated their chance of voting as a “9” or “10” on a scale from 1 to 10.
• The turnout score was based on a model of turnout in the 2012 presidential election. The probabilties were applied to 2016.
The probability that a registered voter would turn out was based on the average of whether they were a self-reported voter and their modeled turnout score.”
“... 59 percent of interviews were completed on cellphones”
I wish pollsters would settle on a set ratio of cell/land lines. They’re all over the place on this.
Only 9% in SW Florida under samples heavily Republican areas. Trump is now speaking in Estero (between Naples and Ft. Myers) to a packed coliseum. Love how he counters Hillary’s comment of earlier today that his rhetoric makes us less safe. She looks more like toast each day. Even my heavily Democratic neighbors will not put up a yard sign for her.
My rock band used to tour FL and play at Ft. Meyers all the time. Cape Coral? I think the club was “the Corner Cue.”
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.