Posted on 09/15/2016 11:28:47 AM PDT by FenwickBabbitt
...there is an unusually high chance Donald Trump could win the Electoral College while losing the popular vote — basically, Democrats’ version of the apocalypse.
Here’s why: Several of Trump’s worst demographic groups happen to be concentrated in states, such as California, New York, Texas and Utah, that are either not competitive or that aren’t on Trump’s must-win list. Conversely, whites without a college degree — one of Trump’s strongest groups — represent a huge bloc in three blue states he would need to turn red to have the best chance of winning 270 electoral votes: Florida, Ohio and Pennsylvania....
Using a prototype of a demographic election calculator that FiveThirtyEight will be unveiling in the next few weeks, I decided to simulate a few election scenarios. Starting with 2012 results as a baseline and adjusting for demographic changes over the past four years, I tested what the map would look like if African-American turnout dipped, GOP support among college-educated whites and Latinos slightly declined, and noncollege whites rallied to Trump in large numbers....
The result? Clinton would carry the popular vote by 1.5 percentage points. However, Trump would win the Electoral College with 280 votes by holding all 24 Romney states and flipping Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Iowa and Maine’s 2nd Congressional District from blue to red. And the real disparity between the electoral and popular votes could be larger, because this model doesn’t even factor in Trump’s Mormon problem.
Don’t get me wrong: This scenario is still very unlikely. But its potential to plunge an already fraught election into absolute chaos means it shouldn’t be discounted, either.
(Excerpt) Read more at fivethirtyeight.com ...
CA and one or two others could turn out to be the freaks of the country who side with corrupt habitual liars. All that will do is prove what is already known about certain states.
Not so sure about that. Trump had a "Romney" problem, and Romney is looking more and more stupid by the day. As we get closer to the general election, Trump is surging in Utah and Nevada, and it looks like Romney is having a Mormon problem.
The popular vote is not going to be a problem.
Trump is leading Hillary by 15 points in Utah...
The problem Utah has is Romney, and they have pretty much shut him up...
BTTT
Once again showing the genius of the Founding Fathers....
Hey Wasserman, know what they call the candidate with 270 EV?
And Wasserman, know what they call the candidate who wins the popular vote without 270 EV”s.
Mr. President and Loser, respectively.
Amazing to think that if he keeps the Romney states and flips Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Iowa he wins. Pennsylvania is a huge cornerstone state, if the GOP can put that state in the red column, everything changes in terms of national elections.
Popular Vote means nothing, Democrats pad millions of votes from 2 States CA & NY
It would be wonderful if Trump won only the Electoral College. Make the Rats riot. Feed their sense of victimhood/unfairness.
“Moral of the story: Do not give a damn about any reports before or after election night...get out and vote!”
*Vote Early, Vote Often*
*BUMP*
Gee, wasn’t it last week when a headline said that Trump could win the popular vote and lose the White House?
Like Slick Willie was? Didn't hear much about that!
I'd almost like to see that just to watch the Democrats and Hillary Clinton go into fit of rage, pull their hair out, throw tantrums and scream about how they was "robbed". (but the more sensible part of knows it would be better if Trump won in a landslide).
While we’re talking about unlikely scenarios, I’d like to discuss my winning the powerball and having Taylor Swift hire on as my personal masseuse. That’s about as likely of a scenario as the one Nate is outlining. He must get paid by the word.
We keep on forgetting who is presently in the WH. Hussein can still create serious havoc during the elections. He has no intention to peacefully give up his job.
SO now instead of saying that Trump would win the popular vote but lose the electoral college, they are now saying he wins the electoral but loses the popular.
Trump has them bumfuzzled
Ignore all media
Get Out The Vote
Donald Trump: The Echo of Our Framers Uncorrupted President.
Setup for the “Trump stole the election” meme.
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