Posted on 09/02/2016 11:35:07 AM PDT by BlackFemaleArmyColonel
Ipsos is a top-ranked polling firm — and it is producing a series of state polls showing Donald Trump doing dramatically better than the polls by other trusted polling firms.
Those Ipsos state polls show Trump clinching leads in New Hampshire, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Maine.
That’s really big because President Barack Obama won all those states in 2012. Obama won Wisconsin by 6.7 points, Michigan by 9.5 points, Maine by 15.1 points, and New Hampshire by 5.8 points.
The Real Clear Politics poll-aggregation site shows Trump behind Clinton in Michigan by eight percentage points, but Ipsos shows Trump just ahead of Clinton, at 44 percent to 43 percent.
In Maine, Ipsos shows Trump scoring 40 percent to Clinton’s 39 percent, while RCP puts Clinton ahead by roughly eight points.
In Wisconsin, Ipsos shows Trump ahead 39 percent to 36 percent, while RCP puts Clinton ahead by five points.
In New Hampshire, Ipsos gives Trump 48 percent support, compared to Clinton’s 34 percent. In contrast, RCP’s polling average shows Clinton ahead by nine points.
The firm’s accumulation of state polls, however, still leaves Clinton far ahead of Trump in total electoral votes.
The likely difference between Ipsos — which conducts polling for the Reuters news service — and the many other polling firms is their turnout prediction for November.
“Winning the White House depends as much on who comes out to vote as which candidate Americans prefer. Each week, we poll more than 15,000 people, then factor in likely turnout among key demographics to see how voting would play out in the Electoral College,” according to Ipsos.
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
If neither candidate gets a majority, election is tossed to the House Of Representatives.
In that case, Trump becomes President and the Senate would give the nod to Pence as Vice President.
We haven’t had a contested election since 1824.
This is not a regular election. Trump is running on his image as a “winner,” who is going to make the country a “winner” again too. If his polls are so bad that it looks like he’s going to lose then that damages the image that he’s trying to cultivate.
Understood.
I think.
So, if Trump is behind in the polls come election day, that, in and of itself, will discourage his supporters from voting?
Conversely, if Hillary is ahead in the polls come election day and seems the inevitable winner, what is left to motivate them to actually vote?
I mean, why bother voting if you already believe your candidate will easily win?
I spoke with the president of the College Republican Club
at a public college in Maine today. Trump is tied or nearly so in CD-1, southern Maine and ahead in CD-2,the northern 2/3 of Maine by about six point. Trump may get at least one electoral vote from Maine. I will be an election clerk for part of the day and will report results when I can.
Trump will will in a landslide of Reagan proportions.
Maine is left of NH, I believe, so a win in Maine portends a NH win, and perhaps key wins elsewhere (PA, OH, and VA).
Obama won Maine by 15%, Michigan by 9.5%, Wisconsin by 7%, and New Hampshire by 5.5%. While the accuracy of this poll may be uncertain, it's at least a good sign.
Doesn’t surprise me. Hillary is nowhere to be found. The people are supposed to vote for the wench but she only shows up in her jammies to fundraisers with rich folks in swanky places.
Good grief, this woman doesn’t need to be anywhere near the Office of the President.
She is a freaking disaster.
“If its a Trump blowout, watch for establishment Republicans racing to hitch themselves to Trump.”
While the GOPe has thrown a temper tantrum here and there in August, they have been a bit quiet overall ... I just hope they keep their mouths shut before cozying up to Trump. Not having the support of Bush and Romney helps him in my opinion.
No rallies. No press conferences. No meet and greets (unless you have CASH in hand). No campaign......................
Signs of an impending Trump win:
1) Rubio wants to campaign with Trump in Florida.
2) CBS poll that shows Trump ahead by 5 points in PA...then it is scrubbed for their site in 24 hours.
3) VA which was supposed to be a easier Hillary win...Trump only down by 1 point. He should lose this state by demographic projections by around 3 to 5 %
4) Florida primary this week, republicans were out by something like 300,000 more then Dems. All the enthusiasm is on the republican side.
5) Here is PA, Dem part of state at that, I see no Hillary signs, but more and more Trump signs.
6) Liberals who are for Hillary are foaming at the mouth. they are spitting with derision against trump, something I never saw with McCain and Romney. Including my sister in law. They can tell something is in the air and it does not bode well for them, the press blather notwithstanding. It is a very good feeling after 8 years of eating liberal crap.
could all be wrong... but...It has the feel of 1980. At this point in 1980 the press was going on how Carter had the lead, Regan was a dunce B grade actor, all the smart people saw Reagan as dangerous, blah, blah, blah, blah.
There isn't. HOWEVER, I've talked to people who REALLY, REALLY don't like Trump, and would thus vote for Hillary to stop him, even though they aren't enthusiastic about Hillary.
The humidity broke here in WI yesterday. Cool at night and color showing on the maples. Tuesday the campaigns get real.
We get teased in CD-2 about winning and don’t but, this time
we may win. A moonbat may defeat the Republican Congressman
from CD-2, Bruce Poliquin
“see post 23. They still predict hitlery in a blowout.”
However, if you apply a bit of logic and/or common sense, if Trump is going to win in very liberal Wisconsin, then he is undoubtedly a lot more popular than the numbers nationwide (in this poll) would seem to indicate.
Bottom line: The overall numbers don’t make sense in light of the numbers in the headlined states. Something is off.
I think even those who aren’t political are seeing that one candidate is working every day to become president and the other is not. One is acting presidential, speaking to foreign leaders and the other is not. One appears to be in very good health for a 70-year-old and the other slightly younger candidate is not.
There there is the constant e-mail leak stories and assorted tie-ins with the Clinton Foundation that are disturbing to most average Americans.
Male-Female or Democrat-Republican aside, the apolitical or going to choose the candidate who is showing effort and vitality in the absence of such behavior from the opponent.
So divide by a third.,....probably over estimating the effects that the “other” party candidates are having on the polling!
“Maine is left of NH, I believe...”
________________________________________________
Not anymore.
Lots of libs have moved to New Hampshire from Massachusetts, so NH has been much “bluer” in recent years than it once was.
NH has a lib governor. In Paul LePage, Maine has probably the most conservative GOP governor in the U.S.A. He ended Maine’s status as a sanctuary state in January, 2011, just two days after being sworn in. He is very pro-business and anti-tax, and signed Constitutional Carry into law last year.
The Maine House is controlled by dems; the Maine Senate is controlled by the GOP. One U.S. senator, Susan Collins, is a RINO republican; Angus King, the other U.S. senator, is an “independent” who likes to caucus with the democrats in Washington. He endorsed Hillary for president.
The first congressional district congress critter is a liberal dem, Shelley Pingree; the second district congressman is Bruce Poliquin, a republican (who voted to fund Obama’s executive amnesty). It’s a mixed bag.
I would say Maine is purple, trending red.
Hillary treading water or dropping. No forward momentum. No energy. No excitement.
“In order to reverse that she has to get out and campaign hard. I don’t think she has the energy or stamina to do it.”
That’s a good point. Her strategy has been to let Trump hang himself, but Mexico invalidates that grand design.
Stuff it newb. Come with a link.
TTTT!
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