Posted on 08/18/2016 2:36:32 PM PDT by LS
new USDW telephone and online survey finds Republican nominee Donald Trump expanding his lead to six point with forty-four percent (44%) support to Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton’s thirty-eight (38%).
Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson pulled in seven percent (7%), with five percent (5%) backing Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
Another six percent (6%) remain undecided.
Trump has a 14 point lead among men, only 1 down among women!
The Survey, conducted August 13-17, was a sample of 1,405 likely voters, of which 475 were Democrats (34%), 462 were Republicans (33%), and 468 were Independent or Other (33%).
(Excerpt) Read more at usdailywire.com ...
Here is the issue. And the problem.
If the D/R/I mix is imposed after a sample, then you can target that mix to be perhaps what 2012’s turnout was, or 2008 or whatever target you choose.
But if the D/R/I mix is determined by random sample, that’s another matter. That would be the mix obtained randomly. Though this requires a careful arrangement of area codes and prefixes to be sure of randomness, which is somewhat impossible because prefixes and area codes specify geography, which is largely mix definitive.
So declaring a D+1 mix to be “reasonable” doesn’t mean anything at all.
Shoot I love the headline... Trump leads Clinton by 6....sounds so presidentially awesome!!! Please Lord let it be!!!
I would like this to be true, but I’m not sure this is a legitimate outfit.
In all the years that I have been involved with surveying / polling, I’ve never heard of them before.
Republican and Democrat vote totals for primary indicate it may be closer to -1(D)...but you are right -3D much closer then -10D
Look at the internals. The south is oversampled. But the good news is, the only region Hillary is winning is the west and the margin is paper thin.
Make that + instead of - ...oops
Who is USDW? I obviously like the results, but who ran it? Look, Trump has a 100% to 0% lead in my house....
Does a poll matter if its not reported?
According to this left-wing looney website, USDW is not credible:
http://lunaticoutpost.com/thread-681939-page-2.html
If a poll is taken in the woods does it really matter?
Is that oversampled? Texas, Florida combined vs NY, NJ, PA, et. al. The south has had pop growth and NE has not.
The real issue is the D/R/I mix. Was that imposed after the sample or was that the self identification?
I do not answer the phone when caller id says “POLL C” or anything POLL
“USDW is a completely self-financed, independent polling firm. We do not endorse any political parties or special interest groups. Additionally, USDW does not contribute to candidates or political parties.”
This brings up a good point. Do we know if the principles of the other polling companies donate to campaigns. The university polling outfits we know are run by left wing hacks.
Who’s really fired up about Hillary ??!! Her voters will be the dead and the illegals and cartoon characters ...
Yet I would say Suffolk/Reuters et al are not credible.
You cannot be credible if you ask for “youngest voter in the home” or if you (CNN/ORC) completely omit the Millennial age group or if you (Reuters) retool you methodology if the wrong guy is winning.
Well, all I do is look at the internals. Looks damn solid to me, actually one of the more solid polls I’ve seen.
“Says who?” /s
There are more registered dems than repubs?
Ask her if she realistically expects the Libertarian to win? If not, is she voting third party so that if Hillary wins she can claim no responsibility for putting a criminal in the White House? Did you marry down?
Never heard of Daily Wire Poll
Now that being said the fact they weight it bout 1/3 GOP, 1/3 Dem, and 1/3 independent that is about the ratio in America
so we shall see
polling will not work in this election because of the monster vote of folks who never voted who will come out n vote Trump
I still expect a landslide
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