Here is the issue. And the problem.
If the D/R/I mix is imposed after a sample, then you can target that mix to be perhaps what 2012’s turnout was, or 2008 or whatever target you choose.
But if the D/R/I mix is determined by random sample, that’s another matter. That would be the mix obtained randomly. Though this requires a careful arrangement of area codes and prefixes to be sure of randomness, which is somewhat impossible because prefixes and area codes specify geography, which is largely mix definitive.
So declaring a D+1 mix to be “reasonable” doesn’t mean anything at all.
“So declaring a D+1 mix to be “reasonable” doesn’t mean anything at all.”
You can say that for any of the polls. Most polls are using 2012 data which IMHO will not apply this time around. Trump is a different kind of candidate.
Haven’t the past two POTUS elections caused serious pollsters to overweigh Republicans based on midterm ratios?
Meaning lately they’ve overweighed for GOP
No question Dems wil be more than plus one in turnout unless they stay home in record numbers
I think area code is flawed. People move around and carry their phone numbers with them. In my family one son is in Colorado and daughter is in Tennessee but both have Florida numbers because they used to live here. Know of many retirees in Florida with New York, Massachusetts, and New Hampshire numbers. Is any of this taken into consideration?
Yes it does, if that mix is in-line with the current partisan breakdown of the (likely voting) electorate.