Posted on 08/13/2016 4:20:32 PM PDT by MichelleWSC3
Republican Donald Trump should win the presidency by a slim margin according to a model that has accurately predicted the popular vote since 1988.
Using several standards to make his prediction, Alan Abramowitz’s “Time for Change” model done for the University of Virginia’s Center for Politics “Crystal Ball” shows Trump winning 51.4 percent to 48.6 percent for Hillary Clinton.
He added that the model shows a 66 percent chance of a Trump victory.
“Based on a predicted vote share of 48.6 percent for the incumbent party, these results indicate that Trump should be a clear but not overwhelming favorite to defeat Clinton: There should be about a 66 percent chance of a Republican victory,” Abramowitz added.
(Excerpt) Read more at thegatewaypundit.com ...
Popular vote is meaningless...
I predict massive fraud in swing states to get Hillary enough electoral votes to win...
I also predict Trump won’t concede and SCOTUS will install her...
No need to run ADs now Trump is getting lots of free advertising. Also, most people aren’t really paying a lot of attention now so it would be a waste of money.
Trump needs to do really well/strong in the debates then run ADs based on that until election
Bookmark.
“I predict massive fraud in swing states to get Hillary enough electoral votes to win”
-—Then why even have an election? Why don’t we all just concede now and be done with it?
Add about 10 percentage points for Trump.
Agreed.
This is why dems and the msm are going nuts
Get Out The Vote
August is a vacation and downtime month.
I have learned not to second guess Trump when it comes to media.
It's like a footrace.
Save your speed and strength til the last lap...maybe even the last half lap.
Trump has a strategy.
Hillary's plan is to stay awake and coherent until election day.
I have been wrong before (like on the election evening of 2012)...but I don't think Trump will choke like Mitt.
Mitt coulda had it but he wimped out.
Mitt didn't have the guts.
Typical nice Morman boy.
Trump is tough. He brings out our tough side.
We're gonna win this time.
Yep! I'm sure the fraud machine is working overtime as we speak. All they need is a few key states.
“Mitt coulda had it but he wimped out”
-—Very true! Besides, Romney didn’t campaign like Trump is doing. Romney didn’t have all the rallies Trump is doing. Last time a GOP candidate even came close to having as many rallies was GWB in 2000
""Based on the results of other recent presidential elections, however, as well as Trump's extraordinary unpopularity, it appears very likely that the Republican vote share will fall several points below what would be expected if the GOP had nominated a mainstream candidate and that candidate had run a reasonably competent campaign. Therefore, despite the prediction of the Time for Change model, Clinton should probably be considered a strong favorite to win the 2016 presidential election as suggested by the results of recent national and state polls," he concluded on the Crystal Ball site."
What do I think? I think this is not a normal election year -- but it's interesting to see model-makers second-guessing their own models. I'd wait a few weeks and pay more attention to predictions after Labor Day.
Umm with the Libertard and Green party pulling 10%+, how does this guy get to 51 vs 48?
NBC is pushing the Trump losing meme...even said he has babysitters now...
Wait for the first debate. Hillary will face withering fire and she can’t handle it.
Okay you guys win...Trump has already lost the election so why even vote! Happy now?
-—Then why even have an election? Why don’t we all just concede now and be done with it?-—
You are reading something that isn’t in my post...
anyone with a brain knows the dems will commit voter fraud on a massive scale
..
it’s up to us to fight it...
Beware of vote fraud in Ohio, Florida, WI, NC, VA & IA.
Those are critical states for Trump.
I plan to volunteer as poll watcher in Florida.
I am so hoping you are right. I just get sick of seeing Hitlery’s ads so “sweet” sounding and so Trump bashing.
Another idiot spouts off.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.