Aggregate polling from BigEdLB

BigEdLB's Computer | 7/17/16 | BigEdLB

[BigEdLB]

Since Morning consult did all states, and we have polling going back, I decided to [put together a hypothetical aggregate of state pols. I assumed Hillary as de-facto incumbent, so I apportioned undecideds as 2-1 for Trump.

See Below

[BigEdLB]

								Electoral Vote
	# Polls	Trump	Clinton	other		Margin	:	Trump	Clinton
							:	305	233
AL	1	62.0%	38.0%	0.0%	24.0%	Trump	:	9
AK	2	62.6%	37.4%	0.0%	25.3%	Trump	:	3
AZ	6	53.8%	44.4%	1.8%	9.3%	Trump	:	11
AR	2	56.6%	41.6%	1.8%	15.0%	Trump	:	6
CA	12	39.3%	57.4%	3.4%	18.1%	Clinton	:		55
CO	8	42.3%	46.3%	11.4%	4.0%	Clinton	:		9
CT	3	49.1%	49.4%	1.6%	0.3%	Clinton	:		7
DE	1	49.7%	50.3%	0.0%	0.7%	Clinton	:		3
DC	0	-	-	-		Clinton	:		3
FL	21	47.9%	45.9%	6.3%	2.0%	Trump	:	29
GA	6	52.8%	46.3%	1.0%	6.5%	Trump	:	16
HI	1	43.7%	56.3%	0.0%	12.7%	Clinton	:		4
ID	3	59.7%	40.3%	0.0%	19.3%	Trump	:	4
IL	5	44.8%	53.4%	1.7%	8.6%	Clinton	:		20
IN	4	57.0%	43.0%	0.0%	14.1%	Trump	:	11
IA	14	47.8%	44.0%	8.1%	3.8%	Trump	:	6
KS	1	58.7%	41.3%	0.0%	17.3%	Trump	:	6
KY	3	58.9%	41.1%	0.0%	17.7%	Trump	:	8
LA	2	61.1%	38.4%	0.5%	22.7%	Trump	:	8
ME	3	49.9%	45.5%	4.6%	4.4%	Trump	:	4
MD	5	41.1%	58.8%	0.1%	17.7%	Clinton	:		10
MA	3	42.4%	57.6%	0.0%	15.2%	Clinton	:		11
MI	8	46.0%	46.9%	7.1%	0.9%	Clinton	:		16
MN	3	48.4%	51.6%	0.0%	3.1%	Clinton	:		10
MS	2	60.9%	39.1%	0.0%	21.7%	Trump	:	6
MO	6	55.1%	41.8%	3.1%	13.3%	Trump	:	10
MT	3	57.7%	42.3%	0.0%	15.4%	Trump	:	3
NE	1	59.3%	40.7%	0.0%	18.7%	Trump	:	5
NV	6	47.9%	48.0%	4.1%	0.0%	Clinton	:		6
NH	15	49.9%	47.8%	2.3%	2.1%	Trump	:	4
NJ	9	44.4%	50.5%	5.1%	6.1%	Clinton	:		14
NM	3	49.7%	48.5%	1.8%	1.1%	Trump	:	5
NY	13	41.4%	57.3%	1.3%	16.0%	Clinton	:		29
NC	15	49.2%	46.6%	4.2%	2.5%	Trump	:	15
ND	1	57.3%	42.7%	0.0%	14.7%	Trump	:	3
OH	19	47.0%	44.6%	8.4%	2.4%	Trump	:	18
OK	2	60.0%	39.3%	0.7%	20.7%	Trump	:	7
OR	4	48.6%	51.4%	0.0%	2.8%	Clinton	:		7
PA	18	46.6%	45.4%	8.0%	1.2%	Trump	:	20
RI	1	47.3%	52.7%	0.0%	5.3%	Clinton	:		4
SC	3	56.9%	43.1%	0.0%	13.7%	Trump	:	9
SD	1	61.0%	39.0%	0.0%	22.0%	Trump	:	3
TN	2	60.6%	39.4%	0.0%	21.2%	Trump	:	11
TX	2	55.9%	44.1%	0.0%	11.9%	Trump	:	38
UT	7	54.7%	40.5%	4.8%	14.3%	Trump	:	6
VT	2	43.9%	53.3%	2.7%	9.4%	Clinton	:		3
VA	10	47.0%	46.1%	6.9%	0.9%	Trump	:	13
WA	3	46.4%	53.6%	0.0%	7.2%	Clinton	:		12
WV	3	66.9%	33.1%	0.0%	33.7%	Trump	:	5
WI	13	46.5%	48.0%	5.5%	1.5%	Clinton	:		10
WY	1	69.7%	30.3%	0.0%	39.3%	Trump	:	3

[aposiopetic]

Thanks.

[E. Pluribus Unum]

Landslide!

[edie1960]

BEAUTIFUL!!
THANKS SO MUCH FOR SHARING!!

[LS]

Just got into the internals of the WaPo/ABC poll:

“registered” voters . . . but then they asked for the “youngest” adult in the house,
so it’s deeply skewed to NON-voters and people less likely to vote Republican.

Folks, this ABC poll is about a 2 point Trump lead.

[mountn man]

I know it's an impossibility...

But I'd love Trump to take California and/or NY.

It'd be like pi$$ing on Hillary's forehead.

[ri4dc]

Nice work. I approve this message.
MonsterVote, invisible but potent.
Joe Sixpack

[Col Frank Slade]

PA, OH, FL go Trump.

Game over.

[dp0622]

Let’s get to that date first!!!

ANd lets put the pressure on. Donate whatever one can to Trump, even 5 bucks. Make sure everyone who cant get to polls has absentee ballot. Get lazy friends to vote!!

I apologize for mocking FReepers who thought NJ was in play. It is!!!!

I stand by my NY comment. God help me, I live in NYC. 16 percent in Trump’s favor in a state, no one would consider it a contender.

But NJ and PA!!! VERY MUCH PA!!!!

[usafa92]

Thanks Big Ed. Good work as always. Not sure if you saw the following YouGov polls today

https://today.yougov.com/news/2016/07/17/clinton-trump-neck-and-neck-key-battlegrounds/

Ohio makes no sense,but it’s 41-40 Clinton across the 11 battlegrounds. I still think these polls can’t find all the Trump voters. He’s always at 40%. It’s statiscally impossible to be at 40% in virtually every poll.

[Yo-Yo]

New York would be a long shot but still within the realm of possibilities.

[Timpanagos1]

A very well structured hypothetical aggregate of all states’ polls and very good news that Trump will win all the Swing States.

And winning Swing States is a problem for Clinton, as she cannot win them all.

[Williams]

Why would you ask for the youngest adult? Is that a normal polling procedure?

In this house parents are conservative, voting age child is liberal our won’t vote.

Are you sure they did that for the whole poll?

Years ago I would track down poll methodology and post about it here. Amazing the stuff they will do, like take those who think a democrat is doing a poor job, and include them in the positive approval column.

[Be Careful]

From your keyboard to God’s ears......

[Timpanagos1]

They ask for the youngest adult because young people are less likely to answer the phone and a large percentage do not have landlines.

Interviewing the youngest adult allows the pollster to not have to weight that sample as heavily.

[LS]

Great job. I notice you give Cankles MI and CO, certainly MI is likely to go Cankles and this cycle, CO is more so than in the past, but these two are not givens. Also, I notice that you give Trump ME and NH. That’s questionable, although he should win at least one ME vote.

[BigEdLB]

YouGov polls included. Remember it is an aggregate weighted by age. There have been 19 polls for Ohio since the first of the year. Most of the weight goes to the June and July polls including Yougov. And, remember, I apportion undecideds 2-1 for Trump as the non incumbent.

[InterceptPoint]

Nice job. You're hired and our expectations for your performance are very high. I recommend once a week updates that include a plot of the EC count trend line.😉

[LS]

Um, you may be low: See this-—Trump/Cankles tied in CT.

http://www.newsmax.com/JohnGizzi/trump-hillary-clinton-poll/2016/07/17/id/739056/

[BigEdLB]

I would like to be low in CT... Most excellent.