Swing State Poll: Clinton Leads Trump in Florida; Dead Heat in Ohio, Pa.

News Max ^ | 21 Jun 2016 | Sandy Fitzgerald

[OKSooner]

Okay... whatever you say...

[xzins]

those are just the numbers on record

[xzins]

I tend to agree with you. It’s a different game after the convention.

[Grampa Dave]

But there have been polls that have put Donald either neck and neck or even ahead in Florida. Isn’t Quinnipiac one of these firms that tend to oversample the Dem vote in their polling?

Thanks Timestax!

[edie1960]

At least in Florida, Trump has a popular governor totally behind him, which ought to give Trump a significant edge.
Sadly, Trump won’t be able to count on any help from Kasich in Ohio and Pennsylvania has a democrat governor.
It’s a shame that Rubio is so antithetical to Trump’s anti illegal immigration stance because he would offer Hispanic appeal and some charisma as a running mate!

[Grampa Dave]

“I think this is actually great news! A look back at poll numbers for Reagan Vs. Carter had Reagan way back at this time and we know how that turned-out. So, for Mr. Trump to be neck and neck tells me that he is probably ahead in these states.”

Special Report:

How Carter Beat Reagan
Washington Post admits polling was “in-kind contribution”; New York Times agenda polling.
By Jeffrey Lord – 9.25.12
Dick Morris is right.

Here’s something Dick Morris doesn’t mention. And he’s charitable.

Remember when Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980?

That’s right. Jimmy Carter beat Ronald Reagan in 1980.

In a series of nine stories in 1980 on “Crucial States” — battleground states as they are known today — the New York Times repeatedly told readers then-President Carter was in a close and decidedly winnable race with the former California governor. And used polling data from the New York Times/CBS polls to back up its stories.

Four years later, it was the Washington Post that played the polling game — and when called out by Reagan campaign manager Ed Rollins a famous Post executive called his paper’s polling an “in-kind contribution to the Mondale campaign.” Mondale, of course, being then-President Reagan’s 1984 opponent and Carter’s vice president.

All of which will doubtless serve as a reminder of just how blatantly polling data is manipulated by liberal media — used essentially as a political weapon to support the liberal of the moment, whether Jimmy Carter in 1980, Walter Mondale in 1984 — or Barack Obama in 2012.
First the Times in 1980 and how it played the polling game.
The states involved, and the datelines for the stories:
· California — October 6, 1980
· Texas — October 8, 1980
· Pennsylvania — October 10, 1980
· Illinois — October 13, 1980
· Ohio — October 15, 1980
· New Jersey — October 16, 1980
· Florida — October 19, 1980
· New York — October 21, 1980
· Michigan — October 23, 1980

Of these nine only one was depicted as “likely” for Reagan: Reagan’s own California. A second — New Jersey — was presented as a state that “appears to support” Reagan.

The Times led their readers to believe that each of the remaining seven states were “close” — or the Times had Carter leading outright.

In every single case the Times was proven grossly wrong on election day. Reagan in fact carried every one of the nine states.

Here is how the Times played the game with the seven of the nine states in question.

• Texas: In a story datelined October 8 from Houston, the Times headlined:

Texas Looming as a Close Battle Between President and Reagan
The Reagan-Carter race in Texas, the paper claimed, had “suddenly tightened and now shapes up as a close, bruising battle to the finish.” The paper said “a New York Times/CBS News Poll, the second of seven in crucial big states, showing the Reagan-Carter race now a virtual dead heat despite a string of earlier polls on both sides that had shown the state leaning toward Mr. Reagan.”

The narrative? It was like the famous scene in the Wizard of Oz where Dorothy and her friends stare in astonishment as dog Toto pulls back the curtain in the wizard’s lair to reveal merely a man bellowing through a microphone. Causing the startled “wizard” caught in the act to frantically start yelling, “Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain!” In the case of the Times in its look at Texas in October of 1980 the paper dismissed “a string of earlier polls on both sides” that repeatedly showed Texas going for Reagan. Instead, the Times presented this data:

A survey of 1,050 registered voters, weighted to form a probable electorate, gave Mr. Carter 40 percent support, Mr. Reagan 39 percent, John. B. Anderson, the independent candidate, 3 percent, and 18 percent were undecided. The survey, conducted by telephone from Oct. 1 to Oct. 6, has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.

In other words, the race in Texas is close, assures the Times, with Carter actually in the lead.

What happened? Reagan beat Carter by over 13 points. It wasn’t even close to close.

http://spectator.org/articles/34732/how-carter-beat-reagan

[38special]

You can blame the women voters

[Lakeshark]

Florida?

The place where the latest carnage happened?

On its face I don't believe it, and if that's really true, they're older, and dumber, than I ever thought possible.

[LS]

Just lady week Q-Poll had Trump up 1 in FL, consistent with all other FL polls, so, no, I don’t believe the FL poll. The others about right and great news for Trump.

[Beernoser]

Please understand that in 1980 Carter suffered through the Iranian hostage crisis during his campaign. Every day there were rumors of the negotiations working, then not working, working, then broken off. At the very end of the campaign Reagan beat Carter in the only debate between them and then word came out the last week that negotiations with the Iranians collapsed and the hostages would not be released.

Carter’s support collapsed at that point.

This election could work out the same way. There could be some gigantic world or national event that collapses Hillary’s support and Trump wins easily. Of course the opposite could happen to Trump too.

Anyway, please understand that 1980 race had very specific issues on why it changed suddenly in the last week.

[Red in Blue PA]

And this is without Trump spending a dime on ads yet!

[entropy12]

You need to learn some basic facts about immigration in general and anchor babies in particular.

Definition of anchor baby: A child born on US soil to parents who do not have legal status to remain in US permanently. The child acquires US citizenship by birth right. I personally do not think that is right, but that is how our gov’t has been operating for several decades.

If parents of that child are here illegally -or- on a temporary visa such as student or tourist, then those parents get to stay in US as parents of a US citizen. In that situation, it is an anchor baby for obvious reasons.

Both Rubio & Haley’s parents had PERMANENT residence visa’s at the time of their birth. Which simply means they did not need a child born on US soil to stay as long as they wish. Therefore both are NOT anchor babies.

A permanent residence visa, also known as green card is always the first step for immigrants to apply for US citizenship. I went through that process myself, so have first hand knowledge how the process works. No one is given US citizenship directly as first step. One always must acquire green card first, then wait 3 to 5 years, break no laws, and only then becomes eligible to apply for US citizenship.

Making erroneous statements does not enhance your credibility and stature.

[montag813]

Florida is very concerning. Don't these people know that ISIS terrorist Omar Mateen was a Hillary supporter?

[Grampa Dave]

So you are saying Trump is dead, and we should just forget it!

[ncalburt]

You realize
There was another FL state poll from yesterday showing Trump ahead.
So, I think the state polling is usually poor unless done by state local poll group.

And which poll group are we supposed to believe ?

I know QU is a Dem Media hatchet push poll group.
QU is always way way off ..and particular
Way Off in FL .
They blew the 2014 ekection cycle badly but I think they are hired by lib media to cook up slanted polls.

A few posters have experienced QU on the phone.
As the story goes , QU hires these surly rude Black lefties to conduct the poll and they will hang up if there responses are not what they want.

[entropy12]

Do not worry. Me and my significant other just moved to Florida, and that is 2 more votes for Trump.

[HangUpNow]

Bull shit! They are just setting the stage in order to steal the election for Hillary.

Agreed.

And by "THEY" I'm assuming you mean the Uni-Party Globalists. Check out the spread HERE:

Republicans: Trump 82 - 8 percent
Democrats: Clinton 93 - 2 among Democrats
Independents among 44 - 35 percent

IF we're to believe this poll (and I don't), there an approximate +8 1/2 point swing for Hitlery because GOP loyalty for Trump (thanks to #NeverTrumpTraitors) lags way behind the Dem's near unanimous voting for The Hag.

And are we really supposed to believe Indies are voting for The Hag, 44-35?? They CAN'T be THAT stupid. None of them can duplicate the idiocy of 2012. OR, was it Diebold/FRAUD that "won" Zero's 2012 Election? I believe the latter.

[ncalburt]

But , I recall it differently .
The 1980 Dem media was blissfully peddling Reagan was losing and John Anderson third party run was the reason .
The lib media had the same push they were promoting .

Carter was hanging on was the theme .

The lib media were shocked and ticked off by the results .I mean really ticked off. But ,it's a vastly different left wing media now that is run by Global elite and we have 24/7 news which can promote the Dem lies 24-7. The media now is far more radical left . A Hard core left wing lib like George Stephanopolis and his resume would never be hired at ABC on air.

[JBW1949]

He is waiting...Waiting till the exact time to unleash...

He was good friends with Ali...He is using Ali’s “rope-a-dope” tactic at this point...

When Trump is ready, it will be astonishing and we’ll all be loving what will happen...

Wait and see.....

[Georgia Girl 2]

Those OH and PA stats should give Hillary the vapors. Florida will come around. Its early.