Posted on 04/18/2016 2:40:48 PM PDT by Innovative
Here is a link from the very pro-Trump Brietbart:
If Trump knocks it out of the park from here on, he’ll fall short 50-100 delegates.
The more likely scenario is 200 or so, with Cruz breathing down his neck.
Again, it will be a contested convention, like it or not.
Has nothing to do with being a Cruz or Trump supporter.
It’s just a fact.
It's pretty good.
I've personally thought he might be short between a handful and a hundred, but also thought it more probable that he gets over the mark.
As far as Cruz breathing down his neck, he'll be somewhere between 700 and 800 at best. That's NOT a tremendously strong position. It's a distant second.
I will say something you may not like: If Cruz were to prevail in a contested convention, one where Trump is barely short and Cruz is close to six hundred short, the GOP might as well say president Hillary right now, because it's going to lose in a landslide.
“I will say something you may not like: If Cruz were to prevail in a contested convention, one where Trump is barely short and Cruz is close to six hundred short, the GOP might as well say president Hillary right now, because it’s going to lose in a landslide.”
I don’t disagree, at all on that point. Except that Joe Biden will be the nominee, since Hillary WILL get indicted.
Regarding the numbers, I think Trump will fall short about 150-200 and Cruz will be around 100-150 behind him. And I think Rubio will throw his delegates behind Cruz from day one, which (when added together) beats Trump.
In such a scenario, that’s what a convention is for.
Insofar as Hillary's indictment, I kind of doubt that will happen. Strange to say, I think it depends on how bad her poll numbers are. She's a really bad candidate, boring and witchy at the same time, not well liked. If they think she'll be blown out, they'll indict her and replace her. Unfotunately for them, they have even worse back up candidates than the GOP does, so they have a problem.
a) Not true. Both Ford and Reagan failed to reach the required number of bound delegates before the convention in 1976 and neither stopped campaigning.
b) In the many cases where that was true, that's because no front runner had only 38% of the total vote before this year. Candidates dropped out because they were out of money or knew there would be no 2nd ballot.
a) Not true. Both Ford and Reagan failed to reach the required number of bound delegates before the convention in 1976 and neither stopped campaigning.
b) In the many cases where that was true, that’s because no front runner had only 38% of the total vote before this year. Candidates dropped out because they were out of money or knew there would be no 2nd ballot.
Reagan and Ford was a contest. This one isn’t. Cruz has only won 2 out of the 20 biggest states. After next tuesday Trump will have won 13 of them. In the end an election is about winning. And Cruz hasn’t. Sorry.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.