It's pretty good.
I've personally thought he might be short between a handful and a hundred, but also thought it more probable that he gets over the mark.
As far as Cruz breathing down his neck, he'll be somewhere between 700 and 800 at best. That's NOT a tremendously strong position. It's a distant second.
I will say something you may not like: If Cruz were to prevail in a contested convention, one where Trump is barely short and Cruz is close to six hundred short, the GOP might as well say president Hillary right now, because it's going to lose in a landslide.
“I will say something you may not like: If Cruz were to prevail in a contested convention, one where Trump is barely short and Cruz is close to six hundred short, the GOP might as well say president Hillary right now, because it’s going to lose in a landslide.”
I don’t disagree, at all on that point. Except that Joe Biden will be the nominee, since Hillary WILL get indicted.
Regarding the numbers, I think Trump will fall short about 150-200 and Cruz will be around 100-150 behind him. And I think Rubio will throw his delegates behind Cruz from day one, which (when added together) beats Trump.
In such a scenario, that’s what a convention is for.