It sure does. I"m seeing how we're leaving 15 years of going nowhere just like we were in 1980 as Carter got voted out. What followed was a couple decades with a ten-fold surge.
Posted on 04/14/2016 4:27:49 AM PDT by expat_panama
That is in fact a definite maybe. Just the same later is later and now is now. A couple days ago I dumped 1/5th of my holdings and yesterday I was glad I kept 80%. We'll see...
This market has a long way to go yet...up.
Which ETF’s are you talking about?
To make money in these markets, they have to let go of that charming and naive viewpoint. :)
It sure does. I"m seeing how we're leaving 15 years of going nowhere just like we were in 1980 as Carter got voted out. What followed was a couple decades with a ten-fold surge.
Wealth is not created by not doing something, it's what we are doing that counts. What are you doing for making money in these markets?
Meanwhile, the hot political issue for today is men dressed as women being able to use the women’s restrooms.
Our $20 trillion in debt nation is close to economic disaster and our citizens are being led to focus on LGBTQBS.
I miss Woodstock..compared to today, everything made sense back then.
And earnings will probably follow deflation.
The ship is sinking and we are winding down.
And so, let me get this straight, you see the trend upward even in this earnings season? It is a mixed bag so far I suppose.
expat, you have been bearish as I recall. Am I wrong?
My thought was that they tried to promote the “all is well” Koolaid by raising rates and it was like throwing a bucket of you know what into the wind. The economy is FLAT at best but they, the fed and feds, will prop it up by any means possible, including outright lies, for the election then Lookout. Why they floated the negative rate stuff I don’t get.
I almost got optimistic about some of this commentary, particularly the one about earnings like the 80s. That would fit my retirement pistol just fine but I find no reason for it. We have not seen the “traditional” 8% return in the market for more than a decade. It only goes back up to the mean in spurts and the mean is about 3%. Nobody wins at 3%.
The electricity consumption graph tells the whole story of our dead economy. After decades of steady growth in consumption through thick and thin it turned flat in 2008 and has stayed there.
Our economy has quit growing.
I see a correction within the next 12 months to about 14k.
The P/Es are high but not insane.
Your analysis of the situation is great.
But a lot of big companies have staggering amounts of cash on hand to ride out the two years of pain that a good republican president is going to have to put us through.
But I could be wrong :)
expat:
This post is the basis of my previous comment to you.
I could live with a couple of decades of ten-fold surge but why would it happen? What condition would drive it?
One that I see may be a Megatrend in petroleum cost. Shale may be real and sustainable and break the back of OPEC. The Saudis seem to be preparing for that though their preparation will fail. I am seeing oil and natural gas prices at $60 per barrel for many years to come with oil and gas being plentiful and the sources of the plenty being wide spread, not just concentrated in the hands of a relative few who hold power.
Interesting reply.
60 is enough to make capitalists prosper but leave socialist and muslim countries not nearly as wealthy as at the 100 price.
“that preparation will fail”
with NO history of capitalism, really, how can they succeed in diversifying that quickly?
My scheme has been to ride it up to 17500 this election year and get out then reinvesting in the bust that I think will surely come one way or another but I’m getting greedy and staying stupid. I don’t think this current trend has much steam left.
The FERD has found they can’t raise rates, the economy is too fragile and too accustomed to low rates. They would also skyrocket the national debt if rates go up. National debt is going asymptotic to infinite very soon and our economy is not. “Compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it ... he who doesn’t ... pays it.” Einstein. Who is earning it? Who is really poised to take ALL the money and to what purpose? They will only kill themselves in the process.
In the Bible God instructed the Jews to have a Jubilee every 50 years when all the property returned to the owners at the start of the 50 year period. Hmmm. Why would God have instructed that?
Cruz or Trump I really don’t much care which one just not Sanders or Clintoon. On the selfish and realistic side of things I’m praying not a Rat but in the long haul it will take an absolute miracle for a Pubican to make a difference and save the Republic.
Why are my hopes selfish and realistic? Because I think they are just to prolong the time to what I think is the inevitable collapse and live a few more years in relative prosperity. I figure my twilight years will be wishing for death and end to the misery we have created. Boomers with any money will become targets for harvest and neglect to hasten their extermination.
I doubt anyone, acting within the law, will have enough time to implement the draconian measures to save the Republic. I also doubt anyone who is politician enough to get elected has the guts and ability to do what really needs to be done.
with NO history of capitalism, really, how can they succeed in diversifying that quickly?
The answer is that they probably can’t.
They probably can’t anymore than Apple can decide to stop making computers because they are unprofitable and go to something else.
Ask GE about Capital markets instead of making stuff, ask Tenneco about diversification if they were still around, ask the energy companies about their adventures into minerals and on and on. Overnight change of such things has a low probability of success.
you said so many things I think but am afraid to say out loud because then they become more real.
I’m really hoping Trump is a little insane. and narcissistic.
Because it will take an insane narcissist to turn this thing around. Someone who just HATES to fail.
Cruz might improve things a little. That does us no good.
My only fear in what I say is that I appear to be nuts and lose all credibility.
I have been a pragmatist all my life. I may be narcissistic myself but I have not been that wrong that often.
Frankly, I relate to Trump. I try to live my life by the Bible and Kipling’s “IF” and the 12 Scout Laws.
Please add me to the list, thanks.
nothing you wrote sounded remotely crazy.
I would let you know :)
And that is what scares me. Nobody that listens to me disagrees with me. Even liberals.
Re: My scheme has been to ride it up to 17500 this election year and get out then reinvesting in the bust that I think will surely come
Why?
The DJIA will ALWAYS go up. It is the nature of the index, as poorly performing stocks are routinely taken out while healthy companies replace them. Am always amazed at the people who constantly claim the market must go down. No it doesn’t, especially give how it is comprised.
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