Posted on 03/28/2016 10:24:41 AM PDT by Elderberry
The media and the Washington chattering class are very focused on the prospect of a "brokered" Republican convention – despite the fact that, as former Republican National Committee chairman Haley Barbour has pointed out, there are no "brokers" in smoke-filled back rooms anymore. Seriously: Who do people think the brokers are – Bob Dole? John McCain? Mitt Romney? Maybe a bunch of cigar-chomping scotch-drinking fat-cat lobbyists? Things don't work that way anymore, and they haven't for years. Voters wouldn't stand for it.
"Our nominee is going to be picked by the voters in the primaries and the caucuses," Barbour told MSNBC's Chris Matthews in January. "And if nobody gets a majority, those people selected by them are going to work that out."
The people who will work it out, as Barbour puts it, are the delegates to the Republican National Convention. RNC Chairman Reince Priebus isn't going to work it out, and unlike the Democrats, the GOP doesn't have unbound superdelegates who can fix any "mistakes" the primary voters make.
This spring, in states and localities all over the nation, delegates to the convention are being selected. Primaries and caucuses may decide the number of delegates each candidate receives, but the actual names of the delegates are yet to be determined. In fact, we won't know for a few more months exactly who is going to the convention. We can make some guesses, though, because in the past many of the attendees are people who tend to run for delegate every four years. They're regulars.
Over the last few election cycles, it didn't matter too much who the individual delegates were, since their candidate had won a majority of pledged delegates so everything was pretty much decided in advance.
But this time may be different. Already, there's been a tremendous amount of speculation regarding the role of the convention's Rules Committee: How many candidates will be allowed to appear on the first ballot? Will delegates be able to switch candidates after the first ballot? Can they retroactively change some states from winner-take-all to proportional? Bottom line: Can they change the rules to keep Donald Trump off the ticket?
Questions like those are the talk of the town right now in Washington. Everyone has an opinion, and it seems everyone is suddenly an expert on arcane Republican convention rules. "Republican convention rules" is getting searched on Google 100 times more in mid-March than it was in mid-January.
With all this in mind I consulted with an actual authority on these matters: Sean Spicer, the RNC's spokesman and chief strategist.
Here's what I learned: Spicer says that while the media is focused on the convention nominating a candidate for president, its real function is to pass the rules which provide the mechanism for the party to exist for four more years. "It's like going to a [Parent-Teacher Association] meeting and thinking that the primary business of the PTA is to elect a PTA president," he says.
There's also this: The GOP's convention rules are based on a modified version of the same rules used to run the House of Representatives. (In fact, traditionally the speaker of the House runs the convention, as will be the case this year.) Just as in every new session of the House, the first order of business at a GOP convention, after the call to order, is to pass a rules package. Spicer compared it to a condo board or neighborhood association meeting, where people need to know the process and how the meeting will run before they start voting on new business.
Most people think that the last convention's rules are the default – that the 2012 rules are in effect until the 2016 committee changes them – but that is not the case. The Rules Committee doesn't get to pick and choose from among the previous rules; it has to come up with a complete package from scratch every four years. "The 115th Congress cannot operate until it first passes a rules package, and we're the same way," Spicer says. Each convention passes its own new set of rules, and they can be similar to prior ones – or they can be vastly different. It depends on what the delegates want.
In terms of how much the rules can differ from year to year: "The Romney delegates wrote rules to ensure a Romney nomination; the McCain delegates wrote rules for a McCain nomination. Those rules were written by delegates whose candidates are not on the ballot this time," Spicer says. Contrary to popular belief, the 2016 rules don't exist yet – and won't until a new set is passed by the 2016 delegates. Those who talk about "changing the rules" don't really understand the process, he says. It's a blank slate: There are no rules to change yet.
That is why the remaining Republican campaigns are working hard to make sure that people friendly to their candidates are being selected as delegates, no matter who won the state. The RNC chairman selects the chair of the Rules Committee, but the rest of the committee is comprised of delegates from all 50 states and the territories, one man and one woman from each. Those delegates can write whatever rules they'd like.
"The thing so interesting about this year's process," says Spicer, "is that for the first time in 40 years, people are paying attention. And it's not because the process has changed, because it hasn't. We're not doing anything different."
One final thought: In addition to writing the rules, the delegates will also be writing the party platform and voting on it. And while we've seen platform fights in the past – mostly on hot-button social issues – this year, the Platform Committee will likely be negotiating on a wider range of issues such as immigration, free trade and foreign policy. If Donald Trump becomes the nominee, will the Republican Party platform really call for building a wall with Mexico, imposing a 35 percent tax on goods made by companies that have left the United States and temporarily banning all Muslims?
Stay tuned.
Why do we have to get 1237 then if the old rules don’t apply? Wheres that rule from if none of the others are constant? Are rules changes by majority? does it take 1237 to change them or just the most? Anyone out there knows this stuff?
Thanks Elderberry.
Now is the time for him to step to the plate, behind the scenes, and begin to negotiate.
The “Art of the Deal” needs to be put to practice. If Trump seizes this historic monumental opportunity for deal making, then he deserves the presidency.
If he relies on sheer heavy handiness and bluster he does not.
Over the last few election cycles, it didn’t matter too much who the individual delegates were, since their candidate had won a majority of pledged delegates so everything was pretty much decided in advance///
Because when candidates couldn’t win on the first ballot they conceded to the front runner.
Now we have candidates needing 90% or more of the remaining delegates dragging out the rancor only to stop the front runner.
Cruz needs to put the party ahead of his personal ambition and suspend.
If he insists on dragging this out to the last vote and then stealing the nomination at the convention, he will split the party and lose it all.
There are no stinkin’ rules.
We will make them at the last minute to suit our needs.
And then alter them accordingly, as needed.
All this after 12 debates and 100’s of millions of dollars and wasted effort.
Who knew.
The part is already split. All that remains to be decided is which side of the split wins the nomination.
*****Cruz needs to put the party ahead of his personal ambition and suspend. If he insists on dragging this out to the last vote and then stealing the nomination at the convention, he will split the party and lose it all.****
Trump is the thief, Trump is not a Republican, never has been and is only using the GOP to advance his narcissistic self and likely pave the way for a Clinton presidency.
SIXY PERCENT OF Republican voters have opposed him in the primaries. The 40% “supporting” Trump are crossover Democrats (like him).
I imagine Trump could make some deals. Perhaps Trump will show up with 1300 delegates — a nice little excess.
BUT ... since the new rules will require 1301 delegates Trump will be sent home and Mitt shall be our king.
Yep. Exactly what I have been saying. There are no rules. There are only guidelines until the convention.
There are 2,472 Republican delegates to the national convention this year. Every past convention has adopted a rule that a candidate must have 50% + 1 (i.e. a majority) to become the nominee. 50% of 2,472 is 1,236. Plus one is 1,237.
So conventional wisdom predicts that this year's convention will adopt the same 50% + 1 rule. Technically speaking, the convention can set whatever number they want, but it is unlikely to do so.
You’ll be in a closet by yourself eventually with that attitude. Trump will get 1237 despite 17 opponents - fair and square.
Well, that was simple enough. The old: “the only rule is that there are no rules.” But whenever anyone brings up Trump having a plurality if no one has a majority, there are screeches about THE RULES. Almost anyone voting must assume there is a modicum of common sense in THE RULES. So if Trump has most delegates, his delegates make THE RULES. No skullduggery allowed.
But you don't get to make the rules unless you have a majority.
Good. Then 1237 means nothing and we voters can expect the candidate with the most vote to be the nominee.
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