Posted on 02/20/2016 8:55:29 PM PST by 2ndDivisionVet
Today, South Carolina Republicans cast votes in the 2016 presidential primary. As expected, two things happened. First, Donald Trump wiped the floor with the competition. Second, pundits have overreacted in declaring that his second win clears him a path to the nomination. The latter is not only premature, but rabidly underestimates how the party primary system works. But in due fairness, let's address both points.
Trump continues to be underestimated
This is not a post to bash Donald Trump. In fact, as a student of elections, Trump wildly impresses me. He entered a crowded race in which Republicans had not just a number of choices, but a diverse set of good choices. The GOP had young and old, white and nonwhite, male and female, domestic policy guys and foreign policy wonks, experienced politicians and newcomers. Ben and Jerry may have endorsed Bernie Sanders, but the GOP race quickly became the Baskin Robbins of politics.
Enter Donald Trump. He surely brought something different and new to the table. But along with his success as a businessman and tremendous wealth, he also had an easily critiqued history and absolutely no political experience. Combine that with the lack of polish and decorum expected of presidential contenders, and his candidacy seemed not only easily undermined, but doomed. Everyone underestimated Trump, assuming his brash, flippant, offensive, brutally honest, and clearly genuine rhetoric would force him out of the race quickly. Nothing was further from the truth.
As time went on, he just grew more popular. Comments that would normally force a candidate from the race--and political relevance generally--seemed to propel Trump further. And that success continues. After losing a controversial race to an even more controversial Ted Cruz in Iowa, Trump went on to win in New Hampshire and again tonight in South Carolina. That success is indisputable. It is a testament to a very different candidate, who does whatever he wants, in a year where predictions and expectations are thrown out the window. Actually, somehow Mr. Trump has built a wall to combat common wisdom and he's making the political intelligentsia pay for it.
Tonight's win in South Carolina is not only impressive in itself, but it is in a state that had clear currents and moments that favored other candidates. Jeb Bush should have won South Carolina because his father and brother were successful in the state and still remain very well liked. Marco Rubio should have won South Carolina because his story is a compelling one; his foreign policy chops connect well with a defense-oriented state, and Nikki Haley, the popular Republican governor, endorsed him. Ted Cruz should have won South Carolina because the Republican electorate is deeply conservative and disproportionately evangelical Christian. Donald Trump most certainly should not have won South Carolina. He's a wealthy New York businessman with New York values, multiple divorces, a slight relationship to religion, and a history of supporting liberal causes--traits that typically don't resonate with South Carolina Republicans. Yet, despite all of the things other candidates had going for them and the myriad reasons Trump shouldn't have won, the Palmetto State picked the Donald. His message focused on fear, anger, disgust, and a desire to "Make America Great Again" touched a nerve. It's quite odd. In some ways, "Make America Great Again" is the 2016 version of "Yes, We Can." People are responding to the message not necessarily because of its substance, but it makes them feel the way they want to feel. It inspires them as the kind of alternative they want to see. Earlier this week, I drew parallels between how Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump connect with very different supporters in very similar ways. But perhaps, instead, Donald Trump is the 2016 and Republican version of Barack Obama. Trump supporters hope he can change Obama's "Hope and Change."
There is no reason on paper, by demographics, or by outward appearance Donald Trump should be successful in South Carolina, but alas, he won the primary there and marches on to Nevada and then Super Tuesday with more wind at his back than any other candidate by far. His momentum is huge.
Why Donald Trump is overestimated
Every other Republican candidate--and probably both Democratic candidates--would love to be in Donald Trump's shoes. Dominant, in control of most news cycles, Teflon to scandal and his own gaffes, connecting with should-be-out-of-reach demographic groups with ease, and trouncing the competition. Despite that, the reports of Donald Trump's coronation as the next Republican nominee are quite premature. He may well end up the GOP nominee. Yet, there are several reasons why he may not.
The GOP race remains a crowded field. There are five other candidates of varying success and even if you discount Carson (you should) and Bush (you probably should), Cruz and Rubio are serious contenders. So long as that many candidates remain in the race, it becomes difficult for Trump to amass a majority of delegates heading into Cleveland. Cruz and Rubio may not be able to beat Trump in many of the states to come, but they can be enough of a nuisance to keep him from the type of "clinch" we have seen in previous years after a handful of primaries and caucuses. That moment usually comes early (or early-ish) when it becomes clear someone will march to the convention and the race effectively ends. This year is not one of those years.
Party rules make it hard for Trump to clinch. While some states are winner-take-all in their allocation of delegates. Many are not. Many allocate strictly proportionally or function as a winner-take-all if and only if a candidate receives a supermajority (between 66 percent and 85 percent depending on the state). Trump is "winning" by pulling 30-40 percent of states' votes, making those winner-take-all-thresholds far out of reach. It also makes securing the nomination formally (winning a majority of delegates) or informally (broad support being so obvious that further competition is seen as fruitless) that much more difficult.
Party leaders don't like Donald Trump and they're scared to death of his candidacy. The GOP brass see themselves--right or not--to be in a very strong position this year. Secretary Clinton's candidacy exists in the shadow of scandals and investigations and her primary competition is a self-described socialist. They think their chances to retake the White House are quite good, but only if they have the right candidate. They believe Donald Trump is not that candidate. The Republican primary contest has "uncommitted delegates" (Democrats call them "superdelegates") who are able to cast convention votes without input from voters. There are fewer of them than Democrats have, but in a close primary contest, they may make a difference. These unpledged delegates tend to be state party leaders.
If Republicans head to Cleveland with no candidate securing a majority of delegates (every political pundit's daydream), and a brokered convention comes to fruition, the uncommitted delegates may play an outsized role. So, too, may the party brass--the baron-like establishment that Trump and his supporters rail against. It would be a risky proposition to strip the man with the most delegates from being the nominee, but the party may see it as their only avenue to beating a Democrat in November and thus make it a reality. For the GOP leadership the calculus is easy: if we nominate Trump we absolutely lose; if we give the nomination to someone else, Trump's supporters will be angry, but we at least have a chance of winning. Economists' expected value calculations make that decision a no-brainier. The politician's calculations make it more difficult.
That said, if Republican leadership have any opportunity to usurp Trump's momentum and keep him from being the 2016 Republican Party nominee, they will do it. The crowded field, the primary rules, and the preferences of many in the party mean it's a real possibility. Trump and, in a similar way, Ted Cruz have built campaigns and candidacies based on running against and explicitly spitting in the face of the party brass. They work well with angry voters, but in a brokered convention it is a death knell. A brokered convention is great news for party leaders afraid of Trump, for more mainstream candidates like Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio, and for the health of the Republican Party. But at the end of the day, the almost unbelievable state of the Republican primary could be salvaged on the floor of Cleveland's Quicken Loans Arena. If it takes that long, the man or woman chosen in a smoke-filled room may bask in the glow of being the Republican nominee. But the real winner in that situation will be the person Democrats select as their nominee a week later in Philadelphia. In that way, the only thing worse for the Republican Party than Donald Trump would be an establishment-led overthrow of Donald Trump.
For those making absolutist predictions based on the South Carolina results, take a deep breath. This race is nowhere near over. We have no idea who the nominee will be. The only thing Trump's unbelievable win in South Carolina tells us is that the Republican primary will continue to be an unbelievable mess...maybe even a YUGE one.
Foam boy is not eligible, but let that go, Trump will crush him. He will send him more water, lol.
Compared to Hillary? Are you being serious?
But he didn’t win in NH. Read the comment carefully
Actors. What can you do? People think they know them because of their familiarity. Americans are conned every day by marketing.
Sounds familiar...said about Reagan.
Looks like America is going to be a communist nation.
Carson people aren’t going to Trump, theynarentmgoing anywhere special. Most have already gone.
Add the Bush and Kasich votes to Repeal bio and see what you get. Rubio wins. Trump smeared the wrong candidate.
Trump had a chance of getting Cruz voters before he started his ugly smear campaign, not any more.
Trump underestimates the resolve of the Insiders to knock off the Conservative rebellion. Rubio is already moving away from the Conservative voters. Look at his response to the Breitbart article, he just attacked the messengers.
Rove and Rubio think that they have won because they will now get a brokered convention.
Macro Robocito and his amnesty immigration platform would be better in a White Mosque than in The Whitehouse. Amnesty is what really separates Macro from Trump and Cruz. Either of the two will be far better for the country.
Is there an echo in here? I distinctly remember this conversation from 2008 and 2012: blowing off conservatives to get the much more significant crossovers and liberal Republicans and Reagan Democrats.
It's the same calculation all the Christopher Caldwells and Bill Kristols and Karl Roves made in days gone by.
So far, it's Epic Fail X 2.
Shouldn't that be the White Cabana? Or maybe just the White Casita?
Thanks for the correction, he does seem to be more slanted to southerly aliens vs. those from the middle east.
Wait until you get a load of the Hildebeast and what she laid down yesterday at the Nevada Caucuses, about going for Amnesty all the way. I'm guessing that that would include citizenship.
In 1994, Michigan State University political scientists completed a study of elected politicians' responses to voting blocs at all levels. The study proved that, when a voting bloc reaches 10% of the electorate, the bloc begins to distort reprentatives' voting behavior. At 15% the representatives' behavior was seriously disturbed, and at the 25% level the bloc achieved total control of the agenda, to the exclusion of all other voters' interests. This is, of course, a good example of what bloc-voting means in a democracy.
It has long been taught that democracy can be abusive because the majority oppresses the minority. What the Michigan State professors proved, and backed up with actual data, is that minorities can oppress the majority in democratically-governed States, cities, and counties. And in the country as a whole.
A white Democratic woman who attended the Nevada caucus told a Texas FReeper that the Mexicans were fully in charge of the caucus and totally organized -- the NALEO guys have got to be licking their chops. Their dream has been for years to replace the Black Caucus as the "steering committee" of the Democratic Party and kingmakers and incumbent godlings of the United States.
And clowns like Rove still think they've got a shot at getting Mexican votes? That's just a cover story. They're all about wide-open borders and uncontrolled, wide-open, wage-busting immigration. That stuff about "Well, Dubya got 40%!" is just a line, a cover for the real policy. Open borders, tumbling wages, and happy happy rich people in Manhattan.
good point....which no doubt will be repeated for the next few days in the media....but then McCain had no fire and Trump is constantly on fire. Definitely the GOPe is going to try and do whatever they can do make it a two man race before Super Tuesday or else.
Like the unelectable screen cowboy, Ronald Reagan?
How long are you guys going to keep channeling CBS News ca 1980 and The Daily Beast and Salon today, who keep telling us whom to nominate and which of our candidates are "electable"?
What are you guys going to do about the persistent polls that warn that Trump isn't hacking it against The Hildebeast?
You can't repeal the Law of Politics, that given a choice between a faux Democrat "Me-Too'er" like Wendell Willkie, Bob Dole, John McCain, or Mitt Romney, and a real Democrat, the voters will always go for the real thing.
Why do Republican "consultants" and other brainiacs keep insisting that they can win by letting the conservatives go home with "GET LOST!" ringing in their ears, and somehow peeling off 20% of the 47% of the bought-and-paid-for Children of Darkness?
I'm beginning to think that Trump wants the historical distinction of being the first Democrat to take the Republican nomination.
+1
Did you read the articles about Rubo and the Gang of Eight. They are going for citizenship, full benefits and everything, too.
There is not one dimes of difference between what Rubio wants and what Hillary wants. Rubio just got caught in the poison pill and was forced to back off. Rubio helped write the School met bill. It was all in there, just not spelled out. That was what the poison pill did, exposed the intent of the bill.
Do you know what is in Ryan’s TPP? Jobs for more immigrants. They want to send the workers here to fill jobs created by the bill.
If I were to vote in a 'Rat primary, I'd go for the Hildebeest, hands down. The crook over the true believer, every time!
As for me, I sure wish the D’s could come up with someone with better policies for what USA needs now. More communistic bs is exactly the wrong prescription for our economy and jobs , for example
JFK is long dead and buried. No member of the living 'Rat party deserves any respect!
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