PPP's newest national poll finds the race on the Republican side tightening considerably in the wake of Donald Trump's surprise loss in Iowa on Monday night. Trump's lead has fallen to just 4 points - he's at 25% to 21% each for Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, 11% for Ben Carson, 5% each for Jeb Bush, John Kasich, and the now departed Rand Paul, 3% each for Chris Christie and Carly Fiorina, and 1% for Jim Gilmore. Rick Santorum had literally zero supporters on our final poll including him.
Trump's 25% standing reflects a 9 point drop from our last national poll, which was taken the week before Christmas. It reflects an overall decline in Trump's popularity with GOP voters. Trump's favorability has dropped a net 17 points, from a previous +24 standing at 58/34 to now just +7 at 48/41.Trump is particularly starting to struggle on the right - he's dropped to 3rd place with 'very conservative' voters at 19% with Cruz at 34% and Rubio at 22% outpacing him with that group. He does still lead with moderates and 'somewhat conservative' voters to give him the overall advantage.
Rubio is the candidate with the real momentum in the race. He's up 8 points from his 13% standing in our poll right before Christmas. Beyond that he's seen a large spike in his favorability rating - it's improved a net 28 points from +15 at 49/34 to +43 at 64/21. That ties him with Ben Carson as being the most broadly popular candidate on the Republican side.
Things also bode well for Rubio as the field gets smaller in the coming weeks. In a four candidate field he gets 32% to 31% for Trump, 23% for Cruz, and 8% for Bush. In a three candidate field he gets 34% to 33% for Trump and 25% for Cruz. And in head to heads he leads both Trump (52/40) and Cruz (46/40). As other candidates drop out of the race Rubio is the most likely destination of their supporters.
Cruz is actually pretty steady in his national standing even after his surprise victory in Iowa. His 21% standing is up just slightly from 18% in December and his favorability rating is basically unchanged - it was 59/27 then and it's 58/28 now. One thing Cruz has going for him is that when you combine first and second choices he comes out ahead with 41% to 36% for Rubio, and 32% for Trump. That's another metric indicating the difficulty Trump may have in growing his support. Additionally Trump trails Cruz 47/41 head to head, which bodes poorly for him if they end up being the finalists.
The race continues to be very fluid. Only 50% of voters say they're firmly committed to their current candidate choice with the other 50% saying they're open to changing their minds between now and the election. This is one place where there continues to be good news for Trump. 71% of his voters are firmly committed to him, compared to 52% of Cruz's and 44% of Rubio's. Among just voters who say their minds are totally made up Trump's lead grows to 13 points at 35% to 22% for Cruz, and 19% for Rubio. Of course there was a similar dynamic in late Iowa polling, and that wasn't enough to push him to victory there.
Rand Paul saw the writing on the wall and dropped out of the race yesterday but others with similar or even less support than him continue on. Bush continues to be unpopular with GOP voters nationally - only 37% see him favorably to 47% with a negative opinion. He continues to face intense distrust from conservatives with just 32% having a positive opinion to 52% who view him unfavorably.
On the Democratic side Hillary Clinton leads Bernie Sanders 53/32. Sanders does keep gradually moving closer - our previous couple polls had her leading 56/28 in December and 59/26 in November. But he still has some weaknesses that may make it hard for him to catch up. Primary among these is African American voters - Clinton leads 82/8 with them and has a 79/9 favorability compared to 27/23 for Sanders. That does suggest some possibility for Sanders to improve his position - part of his problem is just that black voters don't really know him yet - but he's starting at a tremendous disadvantage that will make the upcoming run of Southern primaries very difficult for him.
How many did Cruz have in Arkansas last night? None. Funny. I do know that he had a coffee house that he stopped by with 20 people so I can see why you would laugh at Trump getting a nice large number supporting him.
Keep it up. Maybe we can get Cruz out of the Senate in 2018.
Never mind I looked at the by line. It is an article from the nutty Leon Wolf. The coo coo bird.
Leon is just wrong yet again. But keep trotting him out if it makes you feel good.
Video is unassailable.
Just having a half full arena us not the issue.
It’s trying to make it seem like it was full.
The media were trying to make it seem like Trump’s rally’s were smaller than they were. Trump had a camera pan the arena to show it was full, packed.
I doubt he gad the cameras pan this crowd.
Trump’s buzz reminds me of Charlie Sheen’s thing a few years ago.
I heard Cruz’s scheduled events today, after the Snake handling convention, was to visit a an Old Folks home during a Bingo game.
I dare you to watch BOTH these videos of the same rally, you are total liar and bogus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toBb6fbqDFM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=toBb6fbqDFM
Red State is on Twitter every day bashing Trump.
Get real.
How do we know that “Trump speaking” and the video are timed together?
Does not match the YUGE crowd from other pictures posted in Little Rock, not the comment of the facility manager that the arena was full!
CARS LINED UP OUT OF TOWN as Hordes Attend Trump NH Rally; Fox, WaPo Journos Barred by Fire Marshal
Kristinn Taylor Feb 4th, 2016 11:10 am —477 Comments
Donald Trump is drawing a huge crowd for his campaign rally in Exeter, New Hampshire at noon Thursday.
The rally is being held at the historic Exeter Town Hall.
CBS News reporter Jacqueline Alemany posted a photo to Twitter showing a long line of parked cars of rally attendees on a street that extended out of town.
http://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2016/02/cars-lined-up-out-of-town-as-hordes-attend-trump-rally-in-exeter-nh-fox-news-barred-by-fire-marshal/
On one side there is Trump and his opponent that is willing to go through peoples garbage and facebook cat pictures to find out what you think...The other candidate says one thing to Americans and another to illegals. On the democrat side Hillary is a fascist and Sanders is a Marxist. Oy Vey....Help Mr. Wizard! Make it all go away...No more Broncobama!
DWIZZLE, DWAZZLE, DWITTLE DOOZ...TIME FOR THIS ONE TO GO HOME!
Wasn’t a full house, but it still appeared to be a goo size crowd.
But I do think Trump has peaked. It gets tiresome listening to his insults after a while.
Back to the Leon hate train - you are so sad.
Don’t you guys always say it’s the crowd size that matters?
Why does lil Leon concern himself with such trivia?
ILLEGALS BABY - that’s where it’s at!
Somehow cw I think you’re delighted with the Rubio train that’s going to plow through everything.
sure...whatever you say
Go rest on your laurels.
So, Lucius Quinctius Cincinnatus had a wife ... you? Still living? After 2500 years or so?
So keep on Cruz’n...Donald to the rescue! Go Trump!
Keep up the good work!!!!!
Ouch!
I’ll be honest. Getting worried.