Posted on 02/04/2016 10:23:44 AM PST by LS
On the night of the Iowa caucus events, I was getting pinged from all sides about what was happening. Unfortunately, some of us still work for a living (joke). I was on the road for an assignment and did not have access to a reliable computer or wireless. I was not "hiding" form critics, and I wasn't ignoring those of a like mind.
Finally I can address what has happened, and I don't think anyone will be happy.
The obvious:
*The polls were horribly wrong. Only the Emerson Poll got it right, but I think that was a total accident. The "gold standard" Des Moines Register is discredited; Nate Silver (thank God) is discredited. So, for myself, until proven otherwise through SEVERAL accurate polls, I'm paying no heed to these. That means we don't know if Trump is ahead in NH or nationally. Likewise, Cruzers, it blows out of the water the notion that "Cruz does better than Trump against Hillary." We don't know now, good or bad.
*While initially Trump had a classy statement of congratulations to Cruz, then he accepted full blame for not "taking Iowa seriously enough," he quickly fell into the "Cruz cheated" mantra.
Politics is vicious and I have no problem with any tricks you can get away with. Period. Moreover, it's over. You absolutely cannot fight the last battle. Every second that Trump spends on this is not only wasted time, but shows he isn't properly focused on NH and beyond. (I'll discuss the "Carson tweet/voter shaming in a minute, but not as some of my fellow Trumpers think).
Whatever happened with Carson/Cruz, the biggest takeaway of this caucus and the biggest negative for Trump is that his strength---his business acumen and organization---took a severe hit. I understand Iowa's unique religious and grass-roots character. But for someone whose reputation is based on organizing, cutting costs and getting things done, it doesn't look good. The story today from the always questionable National Journal that he still has not taken the advice of his campaign team to expand his ground operation in NH is distressing. Trump has been claiming this entire campaign (with experience to support it) that he will "put the right people" in the right positions. Iowa is an inauspicious start. Word is that Cruz has built a powerful similar grassroots network in Tennessee---another Bible Belt state where he'll do well. How The Donald responds to this challenge to his business acumen, not his political instincts, will be critical.
*Carsongate. As I said before, this is politics. I don't know who did what, and as Rush said, we can't prove that any number of voters had their votes changed. The notion that "just four votes per precinct" would give Trump the win is undeniable and just like saying that just one more touchdown a quarter would have given the Patriots the victory over the Broncos. But Cruzers, don't think this doesn't hurt Cruz and his image. He has built an image early on, well, being "St. Ted." He is the "pure" candidate, the one with God on his side. These kinds of shenanigans, combined with the "voter shaming" letter, are minor things ... but they do add up. Cruz can afford one or two of these, but if it ever gets the point that he is viewed as a hypocrite---as opposed to just "a conservative" (or even a "radical right winger"), that charge will have legs.
*The biggest winner---and yet, from another perspective, biggest loser---is Rubio. THE GOPe'S GOAL IS TO BAIT AND SWITCH RUBIO FOR CRUZ AFTER STOPPING TRUMP. Now, Cruzers, I do not think Ted intends that to happen (nor does Trump), and it's not a "conspiracy" between the two men. This is totally "strategerized" by the GOPe, knowing that one on one, Rubio cannot beat either Cruz or Trump. (I would say that to date, Trump's biggest mistake was not in skipping the Iowa debate, but in July and August, when he had Rubio in the grave, not burying him then).
But how is Rubio a loser? He exceeded expectations in Iowa and seems to have (ugh) "momentum." Except ... of ALL the candidates, Rubio not only had money and had the most campaign experience at this level, but had the entire GOPe, National Review, ALL the bloggers and the entire GOP establishment shilling for him (even attacking Jeb for wanting to stay in the race). If Rubio, with all those advantages, couldn't win, that does not speak well for his future chances. Trump may have lacked a "ground game" in Iowa, but Rubio had no excuse.
In short, we are right where the Cruzers hoped we would be: and IA win preventing a Trump landslide. But we're also where the GOPe hoped we'd be, because remember, now matter how unlikely you think it to be, THEY think they will take Cruz out easily---more easily than Trump. Even if Trump wins NH, now, nothing will be proved until a real one-on-one Trump/Cruz match occurs in the neutral battlefield of South Carolina.
The biggest loser: The USA.
None of these guys are qualified for the job.
Polls are for fools.
Neither are any of the gals
Well, yeah, that too, I forgot about Fio-RINO.
Rubio > Trump. If they take Trump out and replace him with Rubio, at least we won’t have a fascist nationalist with zealous, irrational minions as president. A constitutional conservative who can articulate conservative principals, on the spot, without needing focus groups, would be a lot better. However, Trump is the most evil of the evils running, and between Bernie/Hillary and Trump, the former are less evil than the latter.
Who is your choice?
Rubio has the homo arrest to deal with.. and Ken Mehlman’s gay FL GOP-e crowd will not be able to innoculate him against that in the South.
Consolidate around Cruz is the answer.
don’t forget Hillary the Corrupt.
Well for me, it’s still Trump or Cruz, by default.
Well I was focusing just on the Republicans. The Democrats, well that goes without saying.
Caucus’s by their very nature are voodoo and indicative of nothing.
And wide open borders and amnesty is what we would get with Rubio. Also there is a “gay prostitute” scandal brewing involving him.
Pretty good analysis. One thing came to my mind this morning and that is for all predictions that the establishment will gang up for Rubio and stick with him or take him out later in favor of Jeb/Christie; the establishment has a very bad record of understanding voters and how things will turn out for Republicans this primary. It is similar to how they botched the last several presidential elections. They aren’t the brightest but that doesn’t mean they are not the meanest when attacking their own.
After New Hampshire, I think the picture will be much clearer between Trump or Cruz. But for now the important thing is to Stop Rubio, and make sure Yeb is killed off once and for all.
Methinks you'd say the same if the candidates were Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln, Reagan, Mother Theresa, and Jesus.
The nation has a small pool to select from... Hillary, Bernie, Trump, Cruz, Rubio... and that's about it now. I don't see Carson lasting long if he has to announce that he has to go home for a change of clothes during the very first event.
Them's your five. Pick, or stay home and whine. (I guess I know already which you'll do.)
Forget sex scandals. Jeb’s campaign is behind those rumors and I don’t believe they are more than slander.
Yep, McCain finished fourth.
That’s why I’m mad at Cruz and Trump....It’s over...Move on.
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