Posted on 02/03/2016 12:11:55 PM PST by Trumpinator
If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly
War games show NATO’s eastern flank is vulnerable. To deter Moscow, the United States will need to deploy heavy armor on a large scale, a new study says.
By Dan De Luce
February 3, 2016
If Russian tanks and troops rolled into the Baltics tomorrow, outgunned and outnumbered NATO forces would be overrun in under three days. That’s the sobering conclusion of war games carried out by a think tank with American military officers and civilian officials.
“The games’ findings are unambiguous: As currently postured, NATO cannot successfully defend the territory of its most exposed members,†said a report by the Rand Corp., which led the war gaming research.
In numerous tabletop war games played over several months between 2014-2015, Russian forces were knocking on the doors of the Estonian capital of Tallinn or the Latvian capital of Riga within 36 to 60 hours. U.S. and Baltic troops — and American airpower — proved unable to halt the advance of mechanized Russian units and suffered heavy casualties, the report said.
The study argues that NATO has been caught napping by a resurgent and unpredictable Russia, which has begun to boost defense spending after having seized the Crimean peninsula in Ukraine and intervened in support of pro-Moscow separatists in eastern Ukraine. In the event of a potential Russian incursion in the Baltics, the United States and its allies lack sufficient troop numbers, or tanks and armored vehicles, to slow the advance of Russian armor, said the report by Rand’s David Shlapak and Michael Johnson.
“Such a rapid defeat would leave NATO with a limited number of options, all bad,†it said.
(Excerpt) Read more at foreignpolicy.com ...
So let us say they grant the Baltic Russians voting rights? Putin wins again because now there is a sizable Russian political bloc that won't allow the Baltic States to be a reliable NATO partner. Win for Putin again.
Putin has options. It seems the US foreign policy has been constructed in such a way that the USA has no options - no plan Bs. If any of the foreign policy plans in play fail for the USA it all crumbles.
That is how I see it as a foreign policy nerd.
Though I don’t a lot of faith in an Obama-run military, that really isn’t the issue here. To stop the Russians requires that you have some strategic depth, which you don’t have in the Baltics, and it requires that you are prepared to do what it takes to defeat the Russians... which I doubt most governments are prepared to do for Estonia.
And if the Russians use the same tactics they use in Ukraine, send its troops in without official insignia, and deny they are there, it will be difficult to arouse the political will to fight them. For proof, see Ukraine. Not just that you don’t see US troops there, you don’t see Poles or Germans there either.
By the way, the arabs have learned their lesson. If you want to invade a country, just send in your people without insignia, and they can just walk in. No problem.
he Baltics have sizable Russian populations which are denied a vote - this is good for Putin because he can say their rights are violated and he would be correct. No European - not even the Poles - will fight Russia to deny a minority that was born in that country they live in the right to vote. All Putin has to do is send in Spetnaz and Cossacks to mix in with the native Russian male population. Is NATO going to fight a Civil War to deny a minority the right to vote? So let us say they grant the Baltic Russians voting rights? Putin wins again because now there is a sizable Russian political bloc that won't allow the Baltic States to be a reliable NATO partner. Win for Putin again. No shots fired. Putin has options. It seems the US foreign policy has been constructed in such a way that the USA has no options - no plan Bs. If any of the foreign policy plans in play fail for the USA it all crumbles. That is how I see it as a foreign policy nerd.
The Soviet tanks could only do about 100-200 miles before they were toast. They either broke down or just became too difficult to be inside. It also would take them months of easily detected preparations to get an invasion spun up.
In this kind of asymmetrical fight you can only use asymmetrical means. Find separatists somewhere else in the Russian empire and fund them. No one will risk nuclear war for Estonia, but they could find other ways to exact a price while remaining ostensibly above the fray.
“Pourquoi Mourir Pour Danzig?”
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-------- See Chechnya. Luckily for Russia - Muslims lose their minds and act barbaric so they West can't push the sympathy card easily. They tried though - I recall a bunch of "free Chechnya" think tanks on Washington full of respectable Republicans and Democrats before 9/11 hit. After that they kind of shut down operations.
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Luckily, the Baltic states are not that wide then for these tanks to reach the sea.
End Time Bible Prophecy
Ezekiel 39-39 Gog/Magog
To be on the End Time Bible Prophecy Ping List, FReep mail me or Saveferris
you and I are of the same mind. They play chess and we play tic-tac-toe.
I hope we have some adults in the next administration minus the idiotic “reset” button. God, I almost puked when I saw that imbecile Clinton with the red button.
I am not much of a chess player - but I have played a few games of strategy online.
Germany to shut down coal-fired plants, extend power grid
Germany to shut all nuclear reactors
So how is Germany going to get energy for industry and heating? Why predominately from Russian gas pipelines after the alt.energy craps out, thus becoming a client state of Russia on a short leash.
The Bundeswehr, NATO's third largest force, becomes a non-factor in any collective defense against Russian aggression.
After we kicked Saddam out of Kuwait, Russian Generals said they were glad they never had to face our Air Power and Armor in Europe.
Germany can’t be bothered with things like defending their borders and those of their allies. They’re too busy hosting Muslims.
And the Muslims aren’t on the rampage....yet.
When the Muslims start their rampage, European armies are going to be busy within their own borders.
No way, Russia can’t even execute two skirmishes. It has all abandoned the Russians in Ukraine because of Syria. War require supply lines, maintenance of equipment and $$.
Baltics are right next door.
“If Russia Started a War in the Baltics, NATO Would Lose — Quickly”
And nothing would make a despicable Putinista like you happier.
“Not really news, NATO is essentially twisting in the wind until the the American army arrrives with reinforcements.”
REFORLAT ?
“I’ve said that for over 5 years. That’s Putin’s play into the baltic states.... to “protect” soviet citizens.
It’s classic. He’ll “stabilize” the situation.”
Putin’s Greater Russia strategy is just a replay of Hitler’s Greater Germany strategy in the run-up to WWII
“I served in Germany 1969-70. My boss was career, and he said the plan if hostilities broke out in Europe, was to hold Germany for a few days, until nukes could be used to even things out.
IOW the USSR was dominant in terms of conventional forces.”
That is why the Soviets fought so hard to prevent or retard the deployment of INF in Europe in the 1970s and 1980s.
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