Posted on 01/31/2016 8:00:38 PM PST by drewh
We polled Iowa over the weekend for the upcoming Republican caucus, and the final results show that Trump has lost some of his edge, while Rubio has climbed to within one point of Cruz. In fact, all three candidates are within two points of each other; this race is now truly anyone’s game.
The narrowing is thanks to several key factors: expected evangelical turnout; the Cruz voter scorecard debacle; and Trump’s debate absence. Among those who watched the Republican debate, voters prefer Cruz and Rubio to Trump by a margin of 10 points. As the results came in, there was a marked shift in support for Rubio on Saturday night, likely as a result of Cruz’s mailer mishap. Nevertheless, Cruz maintains relatively strong performance among evangelicals, who we expect to comprise nearly 48% of caucus-goers.
Click here for the full Iowa tabs
Inquiries: Matthew Towery matt@opinioinsavvy.com 404-480-3670
(Excerpt) Read more at opinionsavvy.com ...
at this point I always want Rubio to win Iowa, just to teach both Trump and Cruz a lesson about pettiness.
I was posting the headline of the piece so I didn’t make note of the date. However it’s still the last poll that she will be releasing, and her last polls are almost always correct.
Is the poll a real sign of the fight turning voters to some other candidate?
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I think Rubio had a good debate showing thus his rise at this time.
The ups/downs will settle out and we’ll see how it turns out.
Trump could finish THIRD!!
I believe this poll is correct. 12 hours and we will know.
“As for his position on Amnesty....I don’t believe for a minute any of them will stop that.....including Trump....only Cruz seems the most firm on no Amnesty but that will not deter Congress form what their intentions are..which is to give some sort of pathway to that end.”
Cruz only came out against amnesty after he saw how popular Trump was because of his wall/deportation policy. Cruz copied.
I know, because in the beginning I supported Cruz and defended him here from people blasting his legal status statements and H1B increases. I was sure he would come out and explain those any day, as well as have a plan better than Trump’s. I waited months. Cruz was silent for way too ling, and I began to distrust him. A solid conservative on immigration wouldn’t be silent, and especially wouldn’t say “Americans don’t want to have that conversation.” That condescending statement was the last straw. I switched to one willing to have that conversation.
So no, Cruz cannot be trusted on illegal immigration. He gave illegals teddy bears and soccer balls with Glenn Beck (who I knew was pro-amnesty ling ago when he had in one pro-amnesty politician after another and never disagreed with them.)
Iowa is proportional, so any ‘win’ is purely psychological.
This poll is an outlier. I’ve seen 3 others that put Trump 5-8% ahead of Cruz.
Poll: Donald Trump Holds Iowa Lead, Ted Cruz Fades (Trump 31, Cruz 24)
Breitbart ^ | 1 Feb 16 | Flynn
Posted on 2/1/2016, 6:21:43 AM by xzins
A final Quinnipiac poll ahead of the Iowa caucus finds Donald Trump’s support steady at 31 percent while Texas Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX)97% has dropped 5 points in the last week.
Cruz currently has the support of 24 percent of likely caucus-goers, according to the poll. Last week, his support was 29 percent.
The poll also shows a late increases in support for third-place Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL)79% . The Florida senator has 17 percent support, up from 13 percent last week.
Trump’s current 7-point lead in the poll, released on the day of the Iowa caucus, seems to come completely from the drop in support for Cruz. The poll anticipates a big surge in turnout for the caucus. Trump has an 18-point lead among first-time caucus-goers.
The surge in turnout anticipated by Quinnipiac would change greatly the composition of the electorate voting Monday. If the Quinnipiac assumption on turnout is correct, only around 40 percent of caucus-goers would be evangelicals, a dramatic drop from the previous two caucuses.
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3391314/posts
Fighting amnesty by pushing for legal status is spin.
He said he wanted Rubio’s bill to pass.
He opposed Prop 187 - that is the most damaging thing to me, along with saying “The American people don’t want to have that conversation.” A conservative doesn’t put off saying what he’ll do with the illegals here. Rubio does the exact same thing.
He advised W on his illegal immigration plan - which was amnesty.
Rubio’s bill and Cruz’s fight against the Gang of eight has been discussed at length here....no point in doing it yet again....the truth is what it is...not what Trumpers want to make it otherwise.
These push polls have the same effect on us, as the open borders paid for Trump attack posts and replies on FR.
Thanks for those excellent comparative polls versus this bs posing as a poll.
Excellent!
Crush Rubio.
Proportional is a good way to go. Psychological is what happens with the discussion around here.
Everything until March 15 is proportional. Party rules.
ok.
I think the truce is off for now, but we’ll meet up again when the nominee is chosen.
I’m pretty sure we want the same outcome, but doubt the ability of certain candidates to deliver. I hope whoever is chosen does exactly what they are saying right now. The country will be in much better shape, whichever it is, if we don’t get stabbed in the back. I think we all have different ideas on we will be the traitor, since we’ve been through that way too many times.
If it is Cruz and he does what he is saying on his website, I will be happy.
Isn’t it nice though, to not be arguing amnesty vs no amnesty. I remember when that was the topic here - not an agreement on no amnesty, and who will deliver being the question. We’re certainly one step closer.
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