Why the Fourth Most Popular Candidate in Iowa Is in First Place

Weekly Standard ^ | John McCormack | Jan 31, 2016

[Isara]

Des Moines - In the final Des Moines Register/Bloomberg poll, Donald Trump leads the field at 28 percent with Ted Cruz in second place at 23 percent and Marco Rubio in third at 15 percent.

What's remarkable is that Trump is leading despite fact that's he's a deeply polarizing figure among Republicans: Nearly half of likely caucusgoers (47 percent) view him unfavorably, while 50 percent view him favorably. Trump's +3 favorability rating is well behind the favorability ratings of Ben Carson (+50), Marco Rubio (+49), and Ted Cruz (+37). Polling analysts note this is highly unusual:

...

"It makes you scratch your head," J. Ann Selzer, the pollster who conducted the Des Moines Register survey, tells me. "The field is so big--that's part of it. You've got more popular candidates not getting the first-place vote."

The poll found that Trump would lose a two-man race against Cruz by 18 points--53 percent to 35 percent. Close to a majority of Iowa caucusgoers (48 percent) have become less comfortable with Trump winning the GOP nomination. And the largest percentage of caucusgoers (37 percent) said the nomination of Trump would be "not OK" with them. (Just 20 percent said the same of Cruz and 15 percent said the same of Rubio.)

...

[Neu Pragmatist]

I made two posts , both true and accurate ..

[topspinr]

[URL=http://s809.photobucket.com/user/dropshot8/media/trump/Trump_Phonenix_Rising_zpsw9mm0b0i.jpg.html][IMG]http://i809.photobucket.com/albums/zz14/dropshot8/trump/Trump_Phonenix_Rising_zpsw9mm0b0i.jpg[/IMG][/URL]

[SunkenCiv]

Weekly Standard -- that's Bill Kristol's, right? William "Third Party if it's Trump" Kristol? One of the National Review smear squad?

Nearly half of likely caucusgoers (47 percent) view him unfavorably, while 50 percent view him favorably.

In 2012, Romney said he couldn't get that 47 percent.

[SunkenCiv]

• Huh? Glenn Beck Tells Iowa Crowd He Prefers Bernie Sanders Over Donald Trump
• Beck Pleads Cruz Rally To Accept Even 'Marxist Atheists' Because 'They Renew Us '
• Selective Outrage: National Review Trashes Trump, Rallies Behind Ryan

Senator Cruz -- Dump This Dumb S.O.B.!

Glenn Beck to Vote for Hillary if McCain is GOP Nominee<

Glenn Beck - Why he would of voted for Hillary instead of John McCain

Glenn Beck: McCain would've been worse

Glenn Beck: I May have Voted for Hillary Clinton

Glenn Beck: 'I won't vote for Trump.' (Even if running against Hillary)

[SunkenCiv]

[topspinr]

The link does not work, sorry

[topspinr]

http://i809.photobucket.com/albums/zz14/dropshot8/trump/Trump_Phonenix_Rising_zpsw9mm0b0i.jpg

[Neu Pragmatist]

With the exception of Trump ,they are all being advised by the same group on Foreign Policy ... very scary

https://theintercept.com/2015/12/18/beacon-global-strategies/

[topspinr]

The link at post 87 does work.

[caww]

It really doesn’t matter ...they want a Deal maker and a fighter.....what they don’t realize is their support is all based on what he says. ..and that’s flip flopped enough in his lifetime to give more than pause he will do what he says......

But what’s interesting is how Trump presents what he wants to do...leaving a great deal of room for him to wiggle... and he already conditioned his followers so he can sell any bill of goods to them and make it appear in their interests.

[gleeaikin]

What happened to the story about Cruz’s people sending shaming letters to infrequent GOP voters? According to a extensive FR thread yesterday, this was being heavily spread by Twitter and Facebook. I have not heard word ONE about it on TV today, not even the talk shows. Here is the link which has over 1,100 comments. Most comments felt it would have a very negative effect with those voters. Is there anyone here from Iowa who knows if it got local notice? After posting I will have to double check to see if this is the right one. Will be back if I am mistaken.

http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/3390550/posts

[topspinr]

We voted for the past 2 losers and what did that get us.

Flip or flop, we have a winner in Trump and if we don’t grab the ring now, then it’s all over.

[catnipman]

“What happened to the story about Cruz’s people sending shaming letters to infrequent GOP voters?”

You’re not paying attention; it’s already been on all the Sunday shows; be sure to check all the TV coverage tomorrow on Iowa caucus day.

https://www.google.com/?gws_rd=ssl#q=cruz+mailer+iowa+secretary+of+state&tbm=nws

[gleeaikin]

The link I posted on the Cruz campaign sending out a mailing to shame GOP infrequent voters is correct. Another factor which might influence the vote on Monday is the weather. Here is a post on the weather in the midwest the next two days. If the weather is not so bad one Monday, they fear the weather on Tuesday could severely hamper travel to New Hampshire.

http://www.aol.com/article/2016/01/31/winter-storm-kayla-to-bring-heavy-snow-blizzard-conditions-to-r/21305494/

[nopardons]

Thus keeping the candidates stuck in Iowa,you mean?

[gleeaikin]

Are you referring to the shaming story being covered on Sunday shows in Iowa, or the MSM ones nationwide? Actually I did not listen to all the MSM shows, but there was not a word about it on the general news coverage programs. It would not surprise me if the pro Democrat media factions did not want spread news that would sink Cruz as they believe that a Democrat has a better chance of beating Cruz and beating Trump.

[caww]

Well I expected Trumps flip flopping would have no affect ....it’s the standard response around here.

[topspinr]

There’s’ plenty of Ethanol in Iowa to keep them warm.

[Grampa Dave]

Trump just donated 1 million $’s to the Vets~

http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-donates-1-million-for-veterans-event/article/2581771

Trump donates $1 million for veterans’ event

By CURT MILLS (@CURTMILLS) • 1/28/16 9:39 PM

You also lied about his donation to the Clintoons. Post a link to the documentation backing your claim that he gave $250 K to the Clintoons.

[DoughtyOne]

Your guess is as good as mine.

When a high state official makes a statement on it, you would think it would get some play.

Very interesting.