Posted on 01/30/2016 7:30:59 AM PST by GodGunsGuts
The latest polls show GOP frontrunner Donald Trump and Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) in a virtual dead heat less than 72 hours before Monday's Iowa GOP caucuses begin.
But Cruz has one key advantage none of the other candidates, not even Trump, can claim...
(Excerpt) Read more at breitbart.com ...
Oh yeah. Trump could win for sure. But his support will have to come in a much more conventional way than might have been the case.
We will soon see if this “ground game” theory is true, or just another traditional axiom that has gone out the window in the Age of Trump.
But the real point is, Trump doesn’t need to WIN Iowa, just be in the top two spots, based on analysis of Iowan winners who have gone on to become the nominee.
Trump will no doubt do that. Cruz desperately needs to win Iowa or his campaign is essentially over as Trump will win NH and SC. For Trump, a win in Iowa just shortens the process.
You need rest.
Real Clear Politics has average of Iowa Polls as Trump +7. Don’t know how the author thinks that’s a dead heat. Common Core?
“Guess it’s time for DT to turn his nasty guns on Breitbart now! He dared to post something that might be remotely negative about him!”
You guys really have no idea how pathetically childish you all look.
No idea at all.
Trump (or any other high-profile candidate) doesn’t really need Iowa at all. He committed to Iowa because there were too many doubts about his serious intent. Trump seemed serious in the 2012 campaign and jilted his supporters.
If Trump’s negatives are so high and his poll numbers still up there, I’d conclude that the voters are putting the good of the country ahead of their personal take. Good for them.
Good point.
Trump sent out a letter telling people where their caucus location was , what time to be there, what to bring with them etc. It was a very professional letter thanking them for their support.
He’s pulling a marge chunk of the republican vote. His 60% negative ratings comes from the general population and explains why Trump polls worse than the other GOP leaders against a democratic opponent.
large
Ted did not explain some of his Senate votes clearly enough in advance of this presidential campaign. So many factors are hurting him. I wonder if he will still b in the race by Feb. 10.
I don’t think people have any idea how excited people are to support and vote for Trump. I am predicting a crushing in Iowa epic proportions. After that the rest need to get out for the good of the party - hehehehe.
I want the CRUZ /Rubio eligibility issue settle law ! Then they can drop out!
Sorry, these polls are among likely Republican voters. I've heard callers say they don't like him personally but agree with what he says. Therein lies the key to his coming victory.
And Cruz's campaign sent out shaming letters.
We'll just have to wait and see how this tactic plays out.
Agreed! This place looks like a twitter cess-pool these days.
I dont get it, we all have our favorites but there are a lot of people who probably wont vote in the general if their guy doesnt get the nomination. We really are becoming a nation of children / spoiled brats.
Here are some numbers:
Total Iowa Registered Republicans as of 1/4/16 = 612,112
- per Iowa Secretary of State website
(The 2012 total Republican caucus vote was 121,255).
These are the possible turnout scenarios for 2016:
If 120,000 turn out, that = 19.6% turnout
If 140,000 turn out, that = 22.8%
If 160,000 turn out, that = 26.1%
It is entirely possible that closer to 160,000 could turn out this year, just a one-third increase over 2012 and little more than just a quarter of total registered Republicans.
Add to that the number of party-switchers who will re-register on the spot at the caucuses Monday evening and the results could well be YUGE!
“But Cruz has one key advantage none of the other candidates, not even Trump, can claim...”
Shaming letters. :-)
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