Posted on 12/15/2015 8:41:04 AM PST by SeekAndFind
My friend and terrific reporter, Eli Lake, has reported that American and other Western defense experts believe that Iran is withdrawing troops from Syria. The Saudis' London outlet says the same, with feebler sources (some FSA guy who says he was listening to Iranian communications).
I have my doubts. An Iranian retreat would be a watershed event, because it would mean that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had done a 180 on a fundamental principle of his regime: doing whatever it takes to save Bashar al-Assad's tyrannical rule in Syria.
Our eyes in the skies are very keen, and no doubt some Iranian ground forces, spurred by the significant loss of life they have suffered in the past couple of years, are returning to the Islamic Republic. On the other hand -- if you follow Emanuele Ottolenghi's tweets (@eottolenghi) -- you'll see significant air traffic between Iran and Syria. As Emanuele says, those airplanes are carrying weapons, ammunition, and fighters. It doesn't look as if this resupply operation is diminishing.
My own sources in Iran insist that there is no retreat from Khamenei's long-standing insistence that Iran do everything necessary to ensure the survival of the Assad regime. He has given his military commanders unlimited funds and unrestricted freedom of action. To be sure, the fight hasn't been a great success thus far -- the Russians' bloody bombing spree proves that. And the reports of grave injuries to the Revolutionary Guards leadership, including General Qasssem Suleimani, suggest there is undoubtedly intense rancor within the country's fractious elites. I am told that Suleimani is in the same Tehran hospital suite where Khamenei himself was treated when he was in a coma a couple of years ago. Suleimani is said to have three bad wounds: one to the back of his head, one to his neck, and the third to an arm/wrist.
So what's going on?
The Quds Force includes thousands of foreigners, primarily from Afghanistan, Pakistan, Yemen, and Iraq. It wouldn’t be surprising if such foreign fighters were replacing Iranian cannon fodder on the Syrian battlefield. The four allies fighting for Assad -- Iran, Iraq, Russia, and Syria -- have scheduled a high-level strategy meeting in Baghdad later this week to review the situation.
Finally, there is always the possibility that the intelligence is either wrong or manipulated. The Pentagon's inspector general is investigating complaints from CENTCOM analysts that their reports and analyses from Afghanistan have been systematically and deliberately suppressed or doctored to conform to the policy preferences of the White House and military appointees. Maybe there is an element of such politicization in this story.
Pending further enlightenment, color me dubious.
“I have my doubts. An Iranian retreat would be a watershed event, because it would mean that Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei had done a 180 on a fundamental principle of his regime: doing whatever it takes to save Bashar al-Assad’s tyrannical rule in Syria.”
They probably thought that since Obama has now committed the US to take on ISIS, why should he let any of his troops get killed.
Are there any Iranians left to retreat ?
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If true, why not pull back and reduce Iranian casualties if the Russians are doing the job of saving Assad for you? As totalitarian as the regime in Iran is, they are still sensitive to public opinion and if a handful of senior generals/officers have been killed or wounded, you can bet that many hundreds more of regular troops have also been killed.
Clearing the bomb test area?
Lots of possibilities here:
- They are pulling back because Assad is no longer at imminent risk.
- They are hurting domestically (politically) because of the casualties (including several high ranking in the ruling elite). Budgets could be strained as well.
- They are shifting priority elsewhere (Iraq, Yemen, etc.), for a Spring/Summer offensive, or to defend against a developing threat.
- They are rotating their regulars back home, and sending in foreign replacements (Shi’ite mercenaries).
- There has been a secret deal to dial back intensity. The Saudis have also cut back funding to rebel groups in the NW of Syria, which have started cutting deals with the Assad regime (e.g. the recent handover of Homs).
- Some combination of the above.
“To be sure, the fight hasn’t been a great success thus far — the Russians’ bloody bombing spree proves that.”
That’s a stupid deduction.
I’ve wondered about political unrest just because so many Iranians hate the regime. Nothing so much directly about the war, but that too many loyalists are away, inviting unrest.
Depends on the source.
Obie and company???...Yeah ...right...
Israel...then I'd believe it.
Maybe they think Russians are gonna nuke ISIS...
If so, why? Russian’s going to boom the place? Where are our boots?
On the other hand Iran has suffered tthe loss of numerous command level generals ... also heard that Iranian troops have had their rear ends waxed and have taken major casualties.
pretty good list!
I was wondering about a secret deal, wondering what Kerry and Obama, the EU or ?? might have promised Iran to get them to cut back
Pretty sure Israel would prefer to see Hezbollah tied down along with the SAA in northwestern Syria than in Lebanon closer to their border
“Where are our boots?”
My boots are on the floor near my desk - unoccupied at the moment ... we are waiting for the Russian booms ... will we hear them this far away, or will we think they are just car backfires?
I would not be surprised if the powers in the region are cutting their own deals, without involving the US.
The Saudi Defense Minister (The King’s son) went to meet with the Russians in Sochi a couple of months ago.
It seems to me that most of the players in the region are dealing with the Russians, and disregarding, patronizing or playing the Americans.
As always in the Middle East, there is likely a mess of shifting alliances, and changing bi-lateral and multi-lateral agreements working against each other.
Russia’s and Iran’s commitments have fundamentally changed the calculus in Syria, as did the Western capitulation on the Iran nuke deal - the Saudis are feeling the heat, and probably need a deal to get out of the Syrian mess, after Obama dropped the ball for them there.
Pulling out the Iranians would be a reasonable trade for the Saudis to stop paying their mercenaries in Syria. Oil prices are kicking all their butts at the same time, so they all need to cut expenses, like war.
Israel has been wise to keep their powder dry, and let the others punch themselves out. Turkey seems to still be committed fighting in Syria/Iraq, and milking out their oil for the Erdogan family retirement fund.
Some sort of deal is on the cards - Iran and the Saudis have just announced a cease-fire agreement for the Yemen.
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Iran is going to have to worry about defending Iran, very soon I believe. The geo-political situation in the Gulf is heating up. The two houses of Islam are waging a proxy war in Yemen, but it going to “enGulf” the entire region, shorty.
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