Why Donald Trump's poll numbers may actually be understated

americanthinker.com ^ | 12/5/2015 | Ed Straker

[rktman]

Politico has a thoughtful piece explaining why Donald Trump's lead may not be as large as it seems. Reading the article carefully, I came away with the opposite conclusion.

According to the latest polls, Donald Trump is in the lead with anywhere between 27% and 36% of the vote - quite a wide gap, depending on which poll you look at.

The big problem with polls is you don't know exactly who is going to vote, and many people who are polled don't end up voting.

[Talisker]

...I'm not abandoning Hillary for Trump ... as I was never going to vote for her in the first place...

Don't be getting me all riled up for nothing...

[rktman]

You talkin’ to me? LOL! No accounting for metrosexuals. :>)

[CodeToad]

Of course Trump’s numbers are understated. The eGOP and the liberals do not want anyone to support him so they mark down his numbers. Still, Trump has high numbers.

[GilGil]

I have noticed a shift in his speeches. First he is going after Hillary and Obama and is not mentioning the candidates much.

It is as if he knows the nomination is his; however, he is taking nothing for granted. As such he is going after Hillary especially after her health when he says she is low energy. That is codes-peak for her health. He is releasing his health records which means he will go after her to release hers which she will not.

He is also now mentioning what he would do on day one of the presidency which he has not mentioned before which tells me he is planning and thinking about all this.

His candidacy has taken on a very different intensity and direction where he is acting as the nominee. He smells blood in the water and that blood is Hillary bleeding out and all the other candidates. The man has done over 50 rallies in 4 months. No one can keep up with him.

As Trump’s dad used to say of Trump:” Whatever he touches turns to gold.”

[ClearCase_guy]

It occurs to me that Trump has plenty of money, and reason to be confident of his eventual election. He knows how to hire good people -- why not start paying some of them now, in a quiet sort of way?

Imagine a list of really solid people who are not currently in the spotlight -- Derek Hunter? Allen West? Steve Forbes? Lawyers we've never heard of? Trump could hire 100 really brilliant (expensive) people and give them a range of assignments:

I want to end the SEIU as quickly as possible -- how could I accomplish that?
I want to build a wall, and some of the water rights along the Rio Grande are going to be a problem -- how do I solve that?
How could I do this?
How could I do that?

A phone and a pen? Trump could start work in Jan 2017 knowing precisely what he wants to accomplish and know precisely how he will accomplish it. If he wins in a landslide, and then manages to have achievement after achievement after achievement, his political capital will grow to monumental proportions.

Much of government can be reformed within the Executive Branch, if the Chief Executive wants those reforms to happen. THEN, after a string of amazing accomplishments, he could turn to the Legislative Branch, and say, "You guys want to stand in my way? I know you could. But maybe your re-election will be a lot harder than you think. Why don't we sit down and negotiate?"

[ken in texas]

... Trump could start work in Jan 2017 knowing precisely what he wants to accomplish and know precisely how he will accomplish it.

I wonder how many White House computer keyboards will need repair because of a missing "T" key.

[sasportas]

Are they taking into consideration Repubs who will vote for Cruz, or some other Repub, in the primary, but if Trump gets the nomination, will vote for him?

I dare say most Repubs, despite the aversions they have of Trump, if it comes down to Trump vs Hillary, will vote for Trump.

[ripnbang]

“polls are all over the map”

Every poll shows Trump with something between a big and demanding lead. How are they all over the map?

---

I think they’re probably referring to state-by-state polls. They mostly have Trump up, some by more, some have other candidates closer, but they are all (national and state) trending Trump’s direction. It’s less than 60 days now and absent Trump going totally off the rails, I don’t see much change in that overall, though some states (Iowa) could be very close or he may lose by a small percentage. From there it depends on the momentum. If he’s close or wins Iowa, I don’t see the juggernaut stopping. If he loses Iowa significantly, there could be a momentum switch that makes the next few states tighter (NH and SC), but again, barring some major flub (at this point I don’t know what that could be he’s “offended” just about everybody), I don’t think he loses. That being said, what is the GOP going to do when it comes to the convention. If Trump runs away with the primaries, I think they will support him. If it’s close in some states and/or he loses some, it could be ugly.

[Duchess47]

Trump has been 10 steps ahead of everyone else so far. I’m just guessing he already has a team lined up who knows exactly what can be done and how.

I’d bet money one of the first things is replace every computer in the White House :)

[GilGil]

Trump is a businessman and very cost conscious. While he smells victory, I bet he watches the cash very very closely.

To make an outlay as you suggest would be tens of millions.

It may be a little premature to do as you suggest; however, I am willing to bet hands down that he is making overtures to the kind of people you mention so that when he is ready they will all fall in place.

What people do not really understand is that Trump is the decision maker and the leader here. How things roll out,and when they do Trump calls the shots. It is all him.

The genius of this campaign is all Trump. He is like a military commander moving the chess pieces across the board. The other candidates are trying to mimic what he does but they are not Trump and will not be able to compete because Trump is real, unscripted and a genius.

[af_vet_1981]

I see a 50-state sweep as a real possibility

Preposterous; from one extreme to the other.

[Ted Grant]

I think Trump can carry the day with anywhere from 350-375 electoral votes, but nobody is likely to ever win all 50 states.

[libstripper]

If the Paris atrocity had an impact, the SB Mudslime artocity will have a WALLOP, such a WALLOP as Trump may be President in all but title.

[BobL]

“I think Trump can carry the day with anywhere from 350-375 electoral votes, but nobody is likely to ever win all 50 states.”

I agree...many states Trump (along with all other Republicans) can never win. But the Midwest will come into play with Trump, meaning MN,WI,MI, with Ohio being cakewalk. PA and possibly IL could be competitive (and costly for Dems) to hold. Lots of other written-off states will be won by Trump, or at least require Dem resources to hold.

Add them up, and I get about what you estimated. If things break for Trump, he could win 400, if not a great night only 300-320 - still good enough.

[DannyTN]

Even if he doesn’t sweep all 50, another candidate has to win at least 7 primaries to be nominated at the convention. I don’t see any other candidate being able to win 7 states. So Trump will be the only nominee.

[Johnny B.]

I think one of the big surprises of the election will be the large number of former Obama voters who vote for Trump. Most of them will be doing so because he's a "celebrity" (just as Obama was).

Expect media heads to explode in record numbers.

[Georgia Girl 2]

I agree. I can’t think of one other GOP candidate who get more than one primary. Cruz might win Iowa but I doubt it.

[rktman]

Media heads ‘sploding? Baited breath.

[SamAdams76]

Many women will be heartbroken that they can't vote for Shrillary because they want a woman president so badly. But I think a lot of women realize that this woman is a horrible choice and does not deserve to go down in history as our first woman president. However, many will feel obligated to "support their six" and will vote for her anyway, the same way many black felt that they absolutely had to vote for Obama or they would be a traitor against their race.

It's a shame that our first black president was such a horrible man and a devastating choice for our country. We may never recover. I hope we do not make the same mistake again simply because we want to elect a woman.

I think Trump has the best chance to beat Shrillary in the general election because Trump appeals to a lot of women. I don't see that with Cruz. Cruz is more of a "man's" candidate and many women are frightened of him.

[Ted Grant]

Yes, we need to have clarity. A clean sweet just isn’t going to happen.

Frankly, I will settle for 281 electoral votes. :-)