With Cruz, they’d lose

The Economist ^ | 11/28/15 | Lexington

[ghost of stonewall jackson]

THE presidential candidate who has most harmed American politics this year is Donald Trump, a bully who has prospered by inciting rage. Yet from the narrower perspective of the Republican Party, the most dangerous candidate of the 2016 pack may just be Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, who is rising in the polls by telling conservative activists a seductive but misleading story about how their party wins elections.

Since launching his presidential run, the 44-year-old Texan has built his campaign around a simple pitch: assuring the most conservative third of the Republican electorate, from born-again Christian voters to hardline members of the Tea Party, that they form a natural majority of the conservative movement, and indeed would decide general elections if they would only turn out and vote. In his telling, this stirring truth frightens a cowardly Republican establishment in Washington, which urges conservatives to run to the middle as "Democrats-lite"—whereupon, Mr Cruz argues, "We get whipped." By way of proof, the first-term senator informs Republican crowds that in 2012, when the party nominated Mitt Romney, roughly half of all born-again Christian voters and millions of blue-collar conservatives stayed home.

New polls show Mr Cruz rising to second place behind Mr Trump in Iowa, which will hold the first contest of the presidential primary season on February 1st.

[Red Badger]

Econo-MISSED.................

[skeeter]

Briar patch - don’t throw me there, etc. Meh.

[Rodamala]

I really wish people would stop posting articles from The Economist.

The Economist is nothing more than a coffee table decoration for liberals that want to fool visitors at their next quinoa and kale themed potluck dinner that they are so really smart about monetary policy and the ways of the world.

It's garbage.

[American Constitutionalist]

Stonewall Jackson lost his arm in the Chancellorsville campaign in Challorsville Va. Near route 3 # Germana Highway.

Brilliant leader and general by the way.

If Robert E. Lee didn’t loose Thomas Stonewall Jackson, and didn’t try to invade the North the south would or could have won the war.

On to news about Ted Cruz...

TRUSTed and ELECTed 2016

[BlueStateRightist]

Who is your favorite candidate and why?

[tanknetter]

I can’t post the links to them from my phone, but folks should look up the PJMedia and Breitbart articles on Catalist and Romney’s botched Orca voter turnout system.

Obama went very hard for his base, targeting ideological supporters who didn’t have a good history of voting. Romney did the traditional tack to the center thing.

Obama’s strategy was much more effective, including cost effective and had the benefit of a software system that worked. Romney’s strategy was much less effective and cost a lot more per-vote. Plus the expensive turnout system collapsed on election day, which Breitbart says resulted in the Romney Campaign suppressing it’s own vote.

Cruz may be looking at this and thinking that he can replicate on the right what Obama did on the Left. Which is a high-risk, high-reward move. Especially given that the Conservative base isn’t as easy to access and doesn’t behave similarly to the Liberal one.

[SandRat]

Put the source for this (The Economist) in the same Outhouse Pit as the NY Slimes.

[x]

'We get whipped." By way of proof, the first-term senator informs Republican crowds that in 2012, when the party nominated Mitt Romney, roughly half of all born-again Christian voters and millions of blue-collar conservatives stayed home."

And this is inaccurate?????

Roughly half the country stayed home.

If you can suppose that all those Evangelical and socially conservative voters would all show up without voters from other groups on the other side showing up or without Republicans losing votes from other groups, Cruz has a point, but not the only possibility. Plus, Cruz may not be the favorite choice of blue collar conservatives.

[SeekAndFind]

2016 Presidential Race

|

General Election: Trump vs. Clinton

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Clinton (D)	Trump (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/25 - 11/19	--	--	47.6	43.2	Clinton +4.4
FOX NewsFOX News	11/16 - 11/19	1016 RV	4.0	41	46	Trump +5
PPP (D)PPP (D)	11/16 - 11/17	1360 RV	2.7	45	44	Clinton +1
McClatchy/MaristMcClatchy	10/29 - 11/4	541 RV	4.2	56	41	Clinton +15
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac	10/29 - 11/2	1144 RV	2.9	46	43	Clinton +3
NBC News/Wall St. JrnlNBC/WSJ	10/25 - 10/29	847 RV	3.4	50	42	Clinton +8

All General Election: Trump vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Clinton (D)	Cruz (R)	Spread
RCP Average	10/29 - 11/19	--	--	45.8	44.5	Clinton +1.3
FOX NewsFOX News	11/16 - 11/19	1016 RV	4.0	41	45	Cruz +4
PPP (D)PPP (D)	11/16 - 11/17	1360 RV	2.7	46	44	Clinton +2
McClatchy/MaristMcClatchy	10/29 - 11/4	541 RV	4.2	53	43	Clinton +10
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac	10/29 - 11/2	1144 RV	2.9	43	46	Cruz +3

All General Election: Cruz vs. Clinton Polling Data

General Election: Rubio vs. Clinton

Poll	Date	Sample	MoE	Rubio (R)	Clinton (D)	Spread
RCP Average	10/25 - 11/19	--	--	46.0	44.6	Rubio +1.4
FOX NewsFOX News	11/16 - 11/19	1016 RV	4.0	50	42	Rubio +8
PPP (D)PPP (D)	11/16 - 11/17	1360 RV	2.7	45	43	Rubio +2
McClatchy/MaristMcClatchy	10/29 - 11/4	541 RV	4.2	45	50	Clinton +5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac	10/29 - 11/2	1144 RV	2.9	46	41	Rubio +5
NBC News/Wall St. JrnlNBC/WSJ	10/25 - 10/29	847 RV	3.4	44	47	Clinton +3

[hardspunned]

Had Jackson been alive at Gettysburg Lee would have won on the first day. More than likely president McClellan would have accepted the CSA 18 months later.

[zeugma]

The euroweenies at the economist don’t like Cruz. Big surprise there.

[American Constitutionalist]

A catchy tune, Roll out the barrel. ( must have been a 1930s depression tune ).

To the words of : Dole out the Moderates.

Dole out the Moderates, we have won elections of none.

Dole out the Moderates, we got the Conservatives on the run.

Wash ing ton Cartel, sing out a song of good cheer.

Now’s the time to Dole out the GOPe barrel, for the gang of 8 is all here.

[MNJohnnie]

But, of course, Hillary and the Democrats running as far left as possible is “smart politics”

What an utter waste of ink “The Economist” has become.

[fieldmarshaldj]

Your candidate is ?

[American Constitutionalist]

Brandywine Va interesting enough was used as a staging point for both sides if I remember correctly.

You are correct about had Stonewall Jackson been alive at Gettysburg.

Robert E. Lee should have never attempted Gettysburg.

[Boogieman]

“But it is a fable: no Republican has won the White House without hefty moderate support.”

The moderates support the Dems, have supported the Dems for several decades now, and will continue to support the Dems for the foreseeable future.

We’ve tried nominating “moderate Republicans” to get their votes, so we already know that is a failing strategy. It’s time to try something else.

[MNJohnnie]

Source to back up your statistics?

Because the published statistic show your claims to be, at best, off by about 4 million missing GOP voters.

The Case of the Missing White Voters

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/articles/2012/11/08/the_case_of_the_missing_white_voters_116106-2.html

Decision 2012: What went wrong for the GOP ?

http://winwithjmc.com/archives/4751

[mrsmith]

Cruz got enough moderate support to win in Texas.
Doing it nationally is a bigger challenge.
We just have to see if he can.

If he hasn’t shown he can get moderate support by South Carolina I don’t think he can be a viable candidate.
But he may: he has lots of money, good skills, and a good case to make.

[Boogieman]

1988 was a moderate riding the wave of goodwill his conservative running mate had bequeathed him.

[The Ghost of FReepers Past]

In their dreams.