And this is inaccurate?????
Roughly half the country stayed home.
If you can suppose that all those Evangelical and socially conservative voters would all show up without voters from other groups on the other side showing up or without Republicans losing votes from other groups, Cruz has a point, but not the only possibility. Plus, Cruz may not be the favorite choice of blue collar conservatives.
Well, you don’t need all that half that stayed home to show up. All you need is more of your disaffected orphan voters to show up than the other side turns out from their orphan disaffected voters. Also, it is much easier to drive up turnout than it is to lure new voters.