Posted on 11/28/2015 6:00:43 AM PST by HomerBohn
Once upon a time, "Black Friday" was a major event in the United States. Yes, the mainstream media is still endlessly hyping it up, and major retailers are still rolling out their "incredible deals", but it appears that most Americans are tiring of this particular gimmick. Or perhaps it is just that U.S. consumers don't have as much discretionary income as they once did.
As you will see below, retail traffic this Black Friday was "much, much slower" than anticipated. And expectations were not great anyway - the number of shoppers was down last year, and it was being projected that there would be another decline in 2015. Yes, there were still a few fights on Black Friday, but mostly the "holiday" was marked by giant piles of unsold merchandise sitting around collecting dust.
The inventory to sales ratio in the U.S. has surged to levels not seen since the last recession, and so the truth is that most retailers were hoping for much more contrived chaos on Black Friday than we actually witnessed.
Personally, I wish that this whole phenomenon would just simply disappear, because it definitely doesn't bring out the best in the American people.
Who wants to see fellow citizens trampling one another and fighting with one another for cheaply made electronics that aren't even manufactured in this country anyway?
Black Friday was always a disgusting spectacle, and now it appear to be fading.
Let's start with Thanksgiving sales. More stores than ever are opening on Thanksgiving Day itself, and according to SunTrust that was a total "bust" this year...
We believe Thanksgiving shopping was a bust. We note that traffic seemed below last year both on- and off-mall.
Members of our team who went to the malls first had no problem finding parking or navigating stores. Crowds were tame and, with some exceptions there seemed to be more browsing than buying and less items purchased.
We heard many people discussing that deals were not that compelling compared to years past. Interestingly, many retailers closed at midnight- which contributed to a sharp decline in traffic shortly thereafter.
Off-mall, members of our team visited Walmart and Target for the openings and had no problem finding parking. Customers at both were focused on electronics. Lines, even early, were about half of what they were last year and quickly dissipated. The only off-mall big box retailer we visited with consistently long lines and customers making multiple item purchases was Kohl's -- where buys were focused on deals not available online.
Once Black Friday rolled around, things didn't get any better. For example, one analyst said that traffic at the Mall of America didn't "look much busier than an average Saturday morning"...
At the Mall of America in Minneapolis, the largest in the country, Edward Yruma, managing director at KeyBanc Capital Markets, said he's seeing less traffic than years past as well. He was there from 6 p.m. to 1 a.m. last night and arrived again at 8 a.m. this morning.
"It doesn't look much busier than an average Saturday morning," said Yruma.
And in North Carolina, retailers saw "much less traffic than was anticipated"...
Jeff Simpson, a director at Deloitte Consulting LLP's retail practice, surveyed shopping centers in North Carolina and saw smaller crowds than expected for Black Friday.
"Across the board, much less traffic than was anticipated," he said. "Much, much slower."
Of course this wasn't much of a surprise. A global recession has already begun, and investors were dumping retail stocks ahead of Thanksgiving in anticipation of a horrible shopping season. The following comes from the New York Post...
Wall Street, fearful that consumers are running out of cash heading into the crucial Christmas retail season, are selling off retail stocks and everything else sensitive to consumer spending.
So why are consumers running out of cash?
Well, it is because the middle class is dying, poverty in America is explodingand the cost of living continues to soar.
Just look at what is happening to healthcare costs. It turns out that employees that work for medium and large companies in the U.S. are now paying more than double for health insurance than they were a decade ago...
Employees of midsize and large companies in 2015 paid an average of $4,700 for their health insurance, up from $2,001 in 2005, according to recent analysis from Aon Hewitt.
For much more on how the cost of living is absolutely crippling families all over this nation, please see my previous article entitled "Inflation Is Crushing The Middle Class".
Meanwhile, things continue to get worse around the rest of the globe as well. The number of unemployed job seekers just hit a brand new record high in France, Puerto Rico is on the verge of a major debt default, and on Friday there was an absolutely massive stock market decline in China...
In China, equities saw a significant sell off as a result of investigations by the Chinese securities regulatory body into several brokerages for breaking regulations. The Shanghai Composite closed 199 points, or 5.48 percent, lower; the Shenzhen Composite closed 6.1 percent lower, the Chinext was down 6.1 percent, and the CSI300 Index saw a decline of 5.38 percent.
Chinese brokerages took major hits, with Citic Securities, Founder Securities, and China Merchants closing 10.1, 10, and 9.98 percent lower after news broke that the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has launched investigations into these firms to weed out short selling and speculation.
I hope that you enjoyed this Thanksgiving as much as you possibly could, because all of the underlying economic numbers are absolutely screaming that hard times are ahead.
This year, Americans are going to spend an average of $130 on "self-gifting" and more than $800 on the holiday season overall. People are spending money that they don't have on things that they don't need, and meanwhile very few of us are actively preparing for what promises to be a very challenging 2016.
So yes, let us enjoy the time that we have with our families, but let us also not be completely oblivious to the huge changes that are literally happening all around us.
FWIW, I think you’d be surprised how many seniors support Donald Trump.
Perhaps even you don’t know why it is called Black Friday..... When I was much younger (those days when stores were closed on Thanksgiving and you spent time with family), the Friday after Thanksgiving was a large money day that brought most stores into the black (i.e. net profit) for the year. The sales between Thanksgiving and New Year’s were considered the gravy for the business.
These days companies are crunching numbers even as sales are being made. They make adjustments to work schedules, loss leaders, and all sorts of other metrics to squeeze every last dime out of the consumer.
I hope Staples did bang up business on Friday since they decided to be closed on Thanksgiving so their employees could be with family.
If stores are successful doing that we will see more of that
The sanity of the author is in question with that comment.
Liberal elites do their best to mock Christmas and make it ‘not cool’ for the young... it's the little people in flyover clinging to their guns and religion... contempt dripping from their liberal superiority.
Liberals ruining Christmas is not an exception - they ruin everything we treasure.
They hate traditional Americans. They hate our lives, our children, our beliefs. Then after lecturing us on how we must treat trans-genders as a new ‘protected’ victim group - along with the other ‘morality's based on hole of choice’ groups - they say ‘shop at my store’.... ‘Happy Holidays’...
More shopping this time of the year is being steered that way. We hear the criticism about not shopping at local stores, but when you see the setup for huge crowds and deceiving discounts, I am not too surprised.
Our family moved away from Christmas shopping years ago except for the children. Between my wife and I, if we need or want something during the year and it is on sale, we buy it.
I start shopping in early Nov so I know what’s out there and what the prices are and what’s a real sale. I too am concerned about no increase in federal retiree pension checks ditto for Social Security recipients (I don’t get SS but I feel for those people). The system has changed the rules that we grew up with when they don’t give us any interest on our savings accounts and CD’s. I will never vote for another Democrat since this policy chsnge was made since 2008. I want America to reward savers and not punish us. I feel bad for the young people in our country, they will have nothing to inherit and they’ll live in a Socialist wasteland and be a nation of serfs.
Retailers here in Canada have been pushing Black Friday over the past few years, even though American Thanksgiving is just another Thursday here, and Boxing Day had been the traditional discount retail event of the year every December 26.
Never understood why unless it was to sync up with American headquarters.
WTF? Who writes this drivel?
Did the writer got his numbers reversed? After all, we save $2700 a year under ObamaCare, not lose $2699.
I'm sure he'll correct the mistake in his next column, right?
In the pic you posted, it appears only Biden (!) has a clue to the travesty occurring at that moment...
Top Hat syndrome. ;)
Black Lives Matter went off the tracks from the beginning when they chose Michael Brown as their poster boy instead of far more questionable shootings like Tamir Rice or John Crawford.
We cut way back our Christmas gift spending last year and are cutting it back even further this year.
It's anecdotal, I know, but I'm guessing it's a tale repeated millions of times across this once bright, prosperous land. I suspect 2015 will be one of the biggest Christmas Season busts ever.
The Baltic Dry Shipping Index Just Collapsed To An All-Time Record Low [Ominous for Global Trade]
We buy for our daughter and other children in the family and maybe an item or two for each other. Usually for each other it’s fun stuff that is cheap. (Like this year she is getting me one of those little quad copters with a camera in it. We will use it for taking pics at family events and taking family movies and such.) My dad we always get something he wants and needs. Usually tools or something for his vehicles or good foodstuffs.
Personally, I wish that this whole phenomenon [Black Fridday] would just simply disappear .....
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As a child, nothing ‘Christmas’ started until the day after Thanksgiving - no store decorations, no Christmas carols, etc. & there was no “Black Friday”. The current situation is depressing to me. Also, about 3 years ago, I was so miserable with having to buy presents, I decided that I would make all of my presents - either handmake something or bake cookies/holiday goodies. It’s a real challenge to come up with handmade presents for people ranging from 13 to 92, but it has put the joy of gift-giving back into Christmas for me. For the first time in eons, I am excited to see people open my gifts ..... some of the younger ones may not be so excited when they get what I give, but I did have a 16 year old picky niece tell me last year that I “give the BEST presents” and that made it all worthwhile. Not being in a mall for years (literally) is just wonderful - I only have to buy craft supplies/yarn & I use 40 - 50% coupons that are available all year & occasionally, I’ll buy something from someone who has a sheep or alpaca farm & makes their own fiber. Back in “the day”, my dad got a 5 cent sleeve of BB’s, an orange, and if a good year for the family, a pair of socks because he was the youngest. Going back to making my presents has been a blessing for me with the gift of my time, the thought that goes into it, and it helps focus on keeping the true meaning of Christmas front and center, too.
Good observation. A Demorat with even half a conscience is rare indeed.
Maybe there’s a 4th reason...people don’t want to be in crowds
We got out and went to the mall for a little bit yesterday afternoon. Either the crowd there has changed a lot... or I have. Left there and journeyed back to my little suburb on the outskirts of town and life seemed normal again. We have a ranch in the middle of nowhere Oklahoma. If it gets to bad here in the burbs, we'll move there someday. It is the unplugged off the grid, sit and watch the grass grow and shoot turtles in the pond deal.
Yep. I agree with that.
Lucky you! Being in the middle if nowhere is when I’m happiest.
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