Posted on 11/27/2015 6:31:22 AM PST by Kaslin
Turkey's decision to shoot down a Russian warplane was a provocative and portentous act.
That Sukhoi Su-24, which the Turks say intruded into their air space, crashed and burned -- in Syria. One of the Russian pilots was executed while parachuting to safety. A Russian rescue helicopter was destroyed by rebels using a U.S. TOW missile. A Russian marine was killed.
"A stab in the back by the accomplices of terrorists," said Vladimir Putin of the first downing of a Russian warplane by a NATO nation in half a century. Putin has a point, as the Russians are bombing rebels in northwest Syria, some of which are linked to al-Qaida.
As it is impossible to believe Turkish F-16 pilots would fire missiles at a Russian plane without authorization from President Tayyip Recep Erdogan, we must ask: Why did the Turkish autocrat do it?
Why is he risking a clash with Russia?
Answer: Erdogan is probably less outraged by intrusions into his air space than by Putin's success in securing the Syrian regime of Bashar Assad, whom Erdogan detests, and by relentless Russian air strikes on Turkmen rebels seeking to overthrow Assad.
Imperiled strategic goals and ethnicity may explain Erdogan. But what does the Turkish president see down at the end of this road?
And what about us? Was the U.S. government aware Turkey might attack Russian planes? Did we give Erdogan a green light to shoot them down?
These are not insignificant questions.
For Turkey is a NATO ally. And if Russia strikes back, there is a possibility Ankara will invoke Article V of NATO and demand that we come in on their side in any fight with Russia.
And Putin was not at all cowed. Twenty-four hours after that plane went down, his planes, ships and artillery were firing on those same Turkmen rebels and their jihadist allies.
Politically, the Turkish attack on the Sukhoi Su-24 has probably aborted plans to have Russia join France and the U.S. in targeting ISIS, a diplomatic reversal of the first order.
Indeed, it now seems clear that in Syria's civil war, Turkey is on the rebel-jihadist side, with Russia, Iran and Hezbollah on the side of the Syrian regime.
But whose side are we on?
As for what strategy and solution President Obama offers, and how exactly he plans to achieve it, it remains an enigma.
Nor is this the end of the alarming news.
According to The Times of Israel, Damascus reports that, on Monday, Israel launched four strikes, killing five Syrian soldiers and eight Hezbollah fighters, and wounding others.
Should Assad or Hezbollah retaliate, this could bring Israel more openly into the Syrian civil war. And if Israel is attacked, the pressure on Washington to join her in attacking the Syrian regime and Hezbollah would become intense.
Yet, should we accede to that pressure, it could bring us into direct conflict with Russia, which is now the fighting ally of the Assad regime.
Something U.S. presidents conscientiously avoided through 45 years of Cold War -- a military clash with Moscow -- could become a real possibility. Does the White House see what is unfolding here?
Elsewhere, yet another Russia-NATO clash may be brewing.
In southern Ukraine, pylons supporting the power lines that deliver electricity to Crimea have been sabotaged, blown up, reportedly by nationalists, shutting off much of the electric power to the peninsula.
Repair crews have been prevented from fixing the pylons by Crimean Tatars, angry at the treatment of their kinfolk in Crimea.
In solidarity with the Tatars, Kiev has declared that trucks carrying goods to Crimea will not be allowed to cross the border.
A state of emergency has been declared in Crimea.
Russia is retaliating, saying it will not buy produce from Ukraine, and may start cutting off gas and coal as winter begins to set in.
Ukraine is as dependent upon Russia for fossil fuels as Crimea is upon Ukraine for electricity. Crimea receives 85 percent of its water and 80 percent of its electricity from Ukraine.
Moreover, Moscow's hopes for a lifting of U.S. and EU sanctions, imposed after the annexation of Crimea, appear to be fading.
Are these events coordinated? Has the U.S. government given a go-ahead to Erdogan to shoot down Russian planes? Has Obama authorized a Ukrainian economic quarantine of Crimea?
For Vladimir Putin is not without options. The Russian Army and pro-Russian rebels in southeast Ukraine could occupy Mariupol on the Black Sea and establish a land bridge to Crimea in two weeks.
In Syria, the Russians, with 4,000 troops, could escalate far more rapidly than either us or our French allies.
As of today, Putin supports U.S.-French attacks on ISIS. But if we follow the Turks and begin aiding the rebels who are attacking the Syrian army, we could find ourselves eyeball to eyeball in a confrontation with Russia, where our NATO allies will be nowhere to be found.
Has anyone thought this through?
I think Erdogan is meant here? Ergogan a misspelling?
To have activist Muslims be NATO sure sounds like a deal with the devil. Or with Obama in office, a deal with two devils.
Nobody national might want to actually declare a war but even so this is going to be one “hell” of skirmish city.
God makes it no secret. God wants peace. But God will allow wars to let wickedness destroy itself and to be a warning display to the world.
It’s interesting, I believe, that C. S. Lewis’ Screwtape Letters were set in wartime.
This only makes sense if he's an apocalyptic Muslim. Let's get the two big non-Muslim powers to fight each other."
Erdogan wants Syria and Obama wants him to have it. Its that simple. Obama is one spoiled brat who will do anything at all to get whatever he wants. I’m being polite and restrained here.
Only God can change people.
There was a burst of hope on the Russian scene when it opened up and open Christian worship became widespread again. That has had some influence to the good. But some just follow the church and not the Christ, and the church is in Russia’s pocket. It would be easy to gin up a self serving “crusade” that had nothing to do with the desires of God.
It’s time we all concentrated on getting right with the Lord. Confess our known sins, ask God for forgiveness and salvation and guidance. The Blood needs to be allowed to be thicker than the Mud.
That was more than a generation ago. Even before then, the “elites” wanted a way out of the failing Soviet system...Remember Gorbachev? We really shouldn’t have our minds stuck in 1978.
Turkey has violated Syrian airspace. Should Russia shoot them down? And it is not clear — depends on the source — that Russia was actually in Turkish airspace.
Turkey has supported ISIS. They can rot.
We talk as if Obama were the source of the desires and will behind this, but that probably isn’t the case. He’s probably just a puppet doing what he has been told to do as a good little figurehead, and not giving a care as long as his own hide gets sufficiently celebrated and guarded.
Dictators are usually removed by military coops. Either their own nations or anothers.
Hussein's deposing will be no different.
Part of the whole idea of NATO was that we wouldn’t have wildcat members picking or fomenting private fights. That just throws its moral basis all to hell.
Would NATO be willing to ostracize Turkey?
No.
I am hoping that Obama is replaced by Cruz in the ordinary way and I am confident that Cruz will be careful about what he eats.
Russia has been known to do some pretty sneaky and nasty things. If prior to next year’s elections, the proverbial umbrella jab for The Won? But what would Slow Joe do. But if it were both of those... now up comes Paul Ryan, a relative hawk.
Looking like it is going to be either Trump or Cruz.
We will just have to wait and see.
Who’s going to be better able to “learn” into a success trajectory. Cruz could stand to lose some stiffness. He’s almost “too” good. Not everyone is going to want a Christian doctrinaire; I’d personally be willing but I know my neighbors and what sells. Trump is up and coming on the “let’s make a deal” premise and some nice things have been cooked up together with Jeff Sessions.
We are just going to have to wait and see. Only one can win.
Unless the pair became running mates. Cruz as Robin to Trump’s Batman. Trump has been documented as a good listener.
Cruz is a believer, it is overt. Fault him for pride maybe, but not for never accepting Christ.
Trump is almost all about his now troubled and liberal mainline church, when he addresses the subject at all. No idea where he is with Christ, though I think there is cognitive dissonance between that church and positions he has taken. He might be remembering his childhood Presbyterian church fondly, which was more conservative. Sometimes childhood faith is more honest.
I agree with you about Trump's relationship with Christ. Nothing is clear except what he says. Who am I to judge?
It would be more revealing if someone like Franklin Graham did an interview with Trump, someone that Trump does not feel is out to get him like the news media tend to be. I could pass over Trump’s wisecrack about forgiveness (that he tries to do things not needing forgiveness) in the context of Trump’s coyly not wanting to give the media another gotcha on him. But that leaves the question unaddressed. And Trump has seemed to learn on the level of leaving some old positions, which would imply a kind of repentance.
Trump may be just barely a believer.
Yeah Pat , I have thought it through and my response is WGAFF. Russian technology and Russian GDP, along with Putin’s love of the good life virtually rules out any mutually assured destruction since the destruction would be one sided. Putin’s side.
Putin is a scumbag as is Erdogan, the mullahs in Iran and Assad. So why should the US care if Turkey shoots down a Russian bomber or Syrian rebels shoot down a Russian helicopter?
NATO obligations? Lol, the Europeans are not interested in anything that upsets their evenings spent telling each other how sophisticated and erudite they are for allowing Muslims to invade without a shot being fired.
Obama? That feckless pos would treat Turkey the same way he treats Israel as an “ally” if push came to shove.
When your enemy goes to war with your enemy don’t fret too much. Light up a cigar, sip some scotch and enjoy.
Disclaimer: Opinions posted on Free Republic are those of the individual posters and do not necessarily represent the opinion of Free Republic or its management. All materials posted herein are protected by copyright law and the exemption for fair use of copyrighted works.