The Autowende Is Here: Electric Cars Are The Next Trillion Dollar Industry

http://cleantechnica.com/2015/11/24/the-autowende-is-here-electric-cars-are-the-next-trillion-dollar-industry/ ^ | November 24th, 201 | Michiel Langezaal

[skeeter]

In 61 months the scolds will be dreaming up ways to force people out of their electric cars and into mass transit.

[Cringing Negativism Network]

America is a large country.

That is the part of the equation, which is (strongly) now for gas engines.

Americans need to travel. Sometimes long distances. Very long distances.

Electric cars are not currently able to do that efficiently, so most Americans don’t yet buy them.

[wrench]

Electric cars are either coal powered, or nuclear powered, both greatly hated by the greenies.

Electric cars are not now nor will they ever be “clean”.

An electric car is no different than a spring or rubberband powered car, the power must be produced somewhere else, then stored in the car for later use.

[The_Victor]

An internal combustion engine peaks at ~30% efficiency. This is the result of a century of continuous improvement and trillions of dollars in research and development. The room for improvement that's left in combustion engines is minimal. Yet there I was, driving the first generation of a car that comfortably hit 85-90% efficiency!

Except that the generation of electricity is at best ~30% with the steam turbines used regardless of the heat source. Solar and wind have much lower efficiencies.

[thackney]

The 85~90% efficiency claim is ignoring what it took to bring the electricity into the vehicle.

[thackney]

In the US, some months it is more Natural Gas than any other source of energy.

[Dr. Sivana]

he trend is clear: the price of batteries is declining at an annual rate of around 20%, while the internal combustion engine is getting more expensive in order to comply with emission regulations.

It may be hard to imagine today, but we'll soon see the day that electric cars are cheaper to purchase than comparable gasoline cars. In markets with high taxes on polluting vehicles, electric cars will be competitive even sooner.

Yup, at 20% reduction per year, the batteries will cost $50 in a couple of decades. Clown. Moore's Law does not apply to electricity storage.

The efficiency of the power plant and line transmission varies, but it is NOT 100%, and the author does not factor that in.

The author admits that the only way electricity will be cheaper is because of government regulations on gasoline/diesel engines, not necessarily because the electric cars will be cheaper than existing cars.

[Quality_Not_Quantity]

I couldn’t agree more. I’ve driven the Tesla (the P90D’s acceleration is literally mind-blowing) and can see a day in the next 15-20 years where 30-40% of all cars sold will be electric.

The biggest issue will be keeping up with the needs of the electric infrastructure - and perhaps raw materials for battery technology.

[from occupied ga]

Dunno what the author was smoking, but I don't want any. Someone this delusional may never go back to reality.

You can blow all sorts of pink smoke all over electric cars and fill the public's ears with bullsh!t, but the inescapable facts remain that the batteries do not have the capacity to do anything except short commuter runs, and that they take a long time to recharge. Not to mention that the electric generation capacity doesn't have enough reserves to handle any serious numbers of the tax wasters

[Lurkina.n.Learnin]

“The 85~90% efficiency claim is ignoring what it took to bring the electricity into the vehicle.”

I thought they brought it in on a pack train of unicorns.

[Fai Mao]

Fuel cells will do to electric cars what downloads did to music CD’s

[thackney]

Except that the generation of electricity is at best ~30%

You beat me to it.

Solar and wind have much lower efficiencies.

Efficiency doesn't have the same meaning when the "fuel" is delivered every day for free. Capital cost are the real impact in those tech.

[wita]

A lot of rhetoric, a few quotes from people “in the know”.

Real facts are in short supply.

In short, electric vehicles are going to have to get a lot cheaper while their range increases to what is expected of the infernal combustion engine before they will be even considered a viable transportation source.

[Dr. Sivana]

Thank you for your EXCELLENT illustration. A car engine uses energy only when it is turned on, a power plant has to generate enough to anticipate what will be turned on. Until we all have our personal Toshiba mini-nuke plants in our neighborhoods we cannot possibly have great efficiency at the plant level.

[BBB333]

The BMW i3 can go 81 miles on a single charge.

For an additional $4,500 you can add an internal combustion engine with a 1.5 gallon fuel tank and extend the range to 150 miles.

That is the state of electric cars today.

They suck.

[palmer]

which can be charged on pure sunlight

Last time I crunched the numbers it took 20 parking spaces worth of panels to get to and from work. Add more area if it is winter or cloudy. For any longer trips, juicing up an electric car in any reasonable time will always require fossil or nuclear.

[thackney]

Fuel cells will do to electric cars what downloads did to music CD’s

Lots of truth in that. But I see methane powered fuel cells more viable than hydrogen.

[thackney]

2014 version in PDF format

https://www.eia.gov/totalenergy/data/monthly/pdf/flow/electricity.pdf

[Travis T. OJustice]

We’re going to need a bunch of nuke plants, quickly, to meet the new demand.