Carson edges Trump in national poll

The Hill ^ | 10/27/15 | Jesse Byrnes

[jimbo123]

Ben Carson has edged out fellow GOP presidential candidate Donald Trump in a new national poll, taking the top spot from the real estate mogul for the first time in months.

Carson is supported by 26 percent of GOP primary voters, followed by Trump at 22 percent, according to the CBS News/New York Times poll released early Tuesday. All other candidates follow in the single digits, with Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 8 percent and businesswoman Carly Fiorina and former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush at 7 percent each.

The poll represents growing momentum for Carson, who surpassed Trump in several polls in the early voting state of Iowa over the past week ahead of the next GOP debate on Wednesday.

"Ben Carson is now doing well," Trump acknowledged on MSNBC's "Morning Joe" after the poll came out, adding that he believed Carson would see more scrutiny as a front-runner.

[LS]

That’s true. MOE of 7% in a sample of 1200 is huge.

[manc]

I was surprised to read this m because of Trump leading so much , that until I saw the internals of the poll itself which is basically useless.

[deport]

while he seals NH, NV, SC, GA, FL, TX,

***************

Trump may win Tx but I wouldn’t cross off Cruz. It may well
depend upon cross over votes, home boy approach, etc.

I agree that Iowa is a different approach and that Trump may not
be concerned with trying to get people to the caucuses. 1,800 or so
precincts and 99 counties does require a ground approach.

At this stage it is Trump’s to lose....

[xzins]

The CBS web page says it is 7%. I looked. It says that the number of registered republicans is 517(?) to 575. An n of 575 won’t give an MOE of 4% at a 95% confidence level.

[LS]

The GOP sample was 530+ GOP voters and 63 “adults,” not 1200. Still think it’s a 7% MOE?

[NKP_Vet]

If you’re still watching Faux News, I would suggest skipping them today. Every show will be touting this latest poll. Megyn Kelly will go ballistic over it. Her entire program will be how finally someone has overtaken Trump and all is right in the world.

[xzins]

It can be 7% if at a lower confidence level.

[PLMerite]

“In other words, it isn’t worth a cup full of cold [censored].”

So, on the scale of worth, which is worth less, cold [censored] or warm [censored] ? :)

[BigEdLB]

Muslim vomit. No. No chance of regurgitated bacon. Therefore this Trump supporter wouldn’t partake of Muslim vomit.

[FreeReign]

What EVIDENCE does anyone have that these polls just aren’t made up? They could publish numbers pulled right out of their hindquarters and no one would know the difference. (They lie about the news, why not lie about polls?)

Of course these polls could be made up. There is no way of knowing since the primaries are still far away.

But the problem is that Trump cited these polls as being legitimate over-and-over again when he was supposedly in the lead. So now what does he do when they show him behind?

[EternalVigilance]

Instead of government of the people, by the people, for the people, we now have government of the money and the media, by the pollsters, for the elites.

[EternalVigilance]

So now what does he do when they show him behind?

Live by the poll, die by the poll.

[Yashcheritsiy]

I dunno. I’m pretty sure that n=575 should yield around 4-4.5% at a 95% confidence level. Doesn’t even depend too much on what the total population size is.

[Hostage]

You believe in polls. You’re in the minority among those in the scientific community.

The polls are not reflective of the nonrespondents which typically make up 90% of a poll based on a scientifically acceptable sample plan.

Independent post-election analyses of the 2012 race pinpointed the 6 million+ demographic ‘Perot Bloc’ of conservative blue collar voters who chose not to vote for Romney or anyone else. Trump is accurate when he says Romney failed to inspire. With that bloc, Romney would have won handily.

The media polls were not accurate as you say. They could never be accurate. Calling them accurate is like claiming global warming models had NYC underwater in 2008 (which was called) and then observing a hotspell and draught to back up the warming predictions.

The Perot Bloc were not sampled by media because they were factored as conservative GOP that would vote for Romney and importantly they were ignored to bolster the media favoured candidate. The media polls did not bother to poll the Perot Bloc so they would never have known regardless of the election outcome. In other words, the media polls got lucky.

Romney’s people factored the Perot Bloc in as a sure vote and Romney’s polls had him winning the day before the election, so much so that he remarked how he could “smell victory”

The 2012 election outcome was not reflected in the polls, it was reflected in the nonrespondents that sat home.

Michael Barone who had hitherto been one of the most in-depth accurate assessors of voting sentiment was off by a very large amount and he attributed his failure to his reliance on landline polling.

Polls can at best be said to reflect those willing to engage of those who are sampled. The 90% nonrespondents may or may not engage in terms of actual voting. If the nonrespondents decide to vote, the polls will look to be ridiculous.

Polls are not legitimate, but they serve as useful shapers of public opinion thereby becoming self-fulfilling. If they were for information gathering only, and never published or broadcast, their social Heisenbergish effect would never be seen and the end results would differ greatly from what actually occurs. The risk to all polls are the undersampled blocs that may or may not be inspired to vote. This was evident in 1980 and 1984

The correlation you are touting is similar to standing outside a sports stadium and monitoring the roar of the crowds. One simply doesn’t know what the score is and doesn’t know if the guest team has their own cheering section. But should the favored team win, the outside ‘roar’ monitors will surely claim they predicted the outcome. Ridiculous.

The only saving grace of polls is the quasi-independence of some from others. That is the only attribute that can possibly restrain cheating.

[Fantasywriter]

‘it is unwise to overlook the fact that Dr Ben has the finest intellect and control of the language of any candidate in modern memory’

Carson wants a national gun registry capable of ***predicting*** the next mass murderer. Do you have any idea how stupid that is? I’m usually pretty good with words, but I’m at a complete loss as to how to communicate the depth, level and magnitude of the stupidity behind that idea.

The best I can do is explain the ONLY thing Carson’s idea is good for. It would make an excellent premise for a Sci-fi novel along the lines of 1984. The plot would feature how the data base was useless for its stated purpose, but was abused beyond all comprehension by the authorities.

That, and ONLY that, would be a good use of Carson’s insanely idiotic idea.

[Lazamataz]

Other Freepers have correctly observed that Carson has not had rallys, but book signings... and that he routinely steps in it in interviews. That aside, let's look at the last few weeks of Carson headlines:

• Top Carson Aide Wants Taxpayers To Fund Farrakhan
• Ben Carson on "volatile" past, trying to stab a friend
• BEN CARSON SKETCHES PLAN FOR DEALING WITH ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS (Citizenship for guest workers)
• Dr. Ben Carson's prescription: Abolish Medicare

About the only thing that MIGHT help him is the Medicare position, but that would be a wash, because he'd lose as many seniors as he gained people like us.

So there is ZERO that drives these polls. Well, zero, except this: It’s Official: GOP Establishment Hacks Pushing Carson Now As the Anybody But Trump

But hey, TDS'ers.... You go right ahead and believe the Establishment-created polling.

Me, I'm going to stick with the anti-Establishment candidate.

[Yashcheritsiy]

It can be 7% if at a lower confidence level.

Wouldn't it be the other way around?

[sarasota]

CBS poll? Sunday on what used to be a nice hour and a half of non-political news, they had a young woman Trump bashing with the usual sound bites, droning on and on. “News” for the feeble minded.

[relictele]

I gave up on JebTV long ago.

It really is sad to watch them become another studio full of DC swamp people, smirking and chuckling about the fall of the republic. Hey, it’s just politics! Let’s go have a Scotch with Chuck Schumer.

[Lazamataz]

The polls are only accurate just prior to the election. Polls much earlier than that are usually purchased, intended to drive trends.

Further, this one is a 7% MOE. When I was taught Stat, this is about as bad as you can get and still claim to be a poll. It's garbage.