Posted on 10/02/2015 11:56:03 AM PDT by SeekAndFind
Four percent, guys. To put that in perspective, Scott Walker was still pulling five percent in one poll released less than a week before he dropped out of the race.
Every now and then, just for a fleeting moment or two, I put away my fatalism and consider that maybe the Republican establishment can’t nominate anyone it wants. And then the moment passes and I return to reality.
As for Trump, there’s been a raging debate for the past three months between people who think his surge is due to a cocktail of populism, “white identity politics,” and sheer alpha-male bravado and people who think it’s immigration, stupid. According to Pew: It’s immigration, stupid.
Trump is in the mid-30s, with an 18-point lead, among Republicans who are more likely to support a candidate who’ll deport all illegals. (Jeb Bush is at a breezy two percent.) Among those who say they’re less likely, Trump crashes all the way to 13 percent, several points behind Ben Carson and just five points ahead of Jeb. Interestingly, you see a similar result when voters are asked about taxing the rich. Again, Trump enjoys a huge lead among those who say they’re more likely to support a candidate who fits that description but flags behind Carson among those are cool to the idea — which is interesting given that Trump’s recently announced tax plan would actually slash the top income tax bracket from 39.6 percent to 25 percent and would eliminate the estate tax entirely. He’s built a populist reputation on taxes by slamming hedge-fund managers and the carried interest loophole but as a group the rich would do just fine under President Trump. What voters believe is true is more important than what’s actually true, though, and clearly GOP voters believe Trump would be a warrior for the middle class, shifting more of the fiscal burden to the upper crust and kicking out the illegals who threaten their jobs. Combine that with the fact that Republican voters in this poll are firmly hawkish abroad (69 percent want to end the Iran deal and 53 percent want ground troops to fight ISIS) and Dan McLaughlin is right: These are exactly the sort of “missing white voters” whom Sean Trende suspected of staying home in the 2012 election. Trump as nominee could mobilize this sort of Jacksonian, working class, but not rigidly conservative voter.
The question is, what parts of the GOP base that have been turning out for elections might stay home in protest rather than vote for him if he’s nominated? One possible answer from this poll is — ta da — conservatives. He still leads among that group according to Pew, but it’s a narrow advantage at 22/18 over Carson. Among moderates, by comparison, he’s cruising at 29/12. If that sounds vaguely familiar, it’s because Trump also performed comparatively weakly among conservatives in yesterday’s YouGov poll, with his favorable rating among that segment of the GOP shrinking from 57/35 in mid-September to 50/46 now. Word is apparently getting around that, as populist conservatives go, he’s a lot more populist than he is conservative, which is very good news for Ted Cruz. In fact, it’s probably because his numbers have taken a hit with conservatives specifically that Trump’s favorable rating among Republicans generally has begun to slip, to the point where it’s now well outside where a future GOP nominee’s numbers should be based on prior history. Go look at Harry Enten’s third graph here. Reagan was also a bit more unpopular than you’d expect among Republicans in 1980 relative to other major-party nominees but nowhere near as much as Trump is.
In lieu of an exit question, I’ll leave you with this. The preferred candidate of Republicans who value experience and a proven record over new ideas and a different approach is … Ben Carson?
There are articles out there basically saying “Trump’s in trouble because his ceiling is so low blah blah blah….where well the hell does that leave Jeb or even Caron? I think all of the other candidates would love to have the “low ceiling” that Trump has.
I'm sick and tired of all these "relatives" trying to cash in politically on their family names. We endured it with the Kennedys and the Roosevelts too. Even Mitt Romney and Al Gore cashed in on their father's political name. There are probably others.
At this point, I don't care if Ronald Reagan's son runs for president. I'm not voting for him. NO MORE relatives of other politicians in the White House, okay?
If anything this election cycle, I want to see Jebbie Bush and Shrillary Clinton utterly and totally destroyed politically this cycle. This should drive a stake through this nonsense for at least a generation or so.
Bush is wrong about everything....common core, immigration, iran deal, and global warming. He was a good governor when hurricanes hit...and that was his main resume builder. Furthermore, the “October Surprise—2016” waiting for him is that they have NEVER mentioned yet that his wife tried to cheat US customs out of thousands when she lied about her designer clothing from a European trip.
as Jeb Bush crashes into sixth place with … four percent
When Jebby crashes right out of the nomination process I will feel a lot better.
lol!
“You just have to wonder, if you were to ask one of the 4% why they support Jeb, what exactly would they say they like about him?”
Most likely they would say that Bush Sr. is a nice guy, Bush Jr. is a nice guys (and they are, I’ve met them both)...so Jeb MUST BE a nice guy.
Good enough for this low-information voter!
...only problem is that as people focus they realize that Jeb is actually offering less than Hillary, and his numbers are showing.
Yes it is. So, when Trump says "we'll bring back the good ones" just how many is he talking about? Trump being in the hotel, construction, and golf course businesses, we KNOW that he and his subcontractors ONLY employ American citizens and legal immigrants, right?
Obviously not. Therefore, what Trump evidently plans (and deliberately avoids making explicitly clear) is a variant on Kay Bailey Hutchison's Operation Touchback, which was rejected as equivalent to amnesty back in 2007.
If he can’t, I can.
America needs Bold Unapologetic Leadership. The left has advanced on all fronts at an incredibly fast pace. Bush does not have the style of leadership that is needed.
If you take into account the margin of error Bush may not even be registering.
I have NO idea why people like Jeb. My father’s a Republican voter, or so he tells me, but he says that he likes Jeb. Maybe I was just annoyed or tired, but I don’t remember WHY he said so.
Then again, he bought the spin about the PP videos being ‘edited,’ so I suspect that he’s a victim of the MSM spin.
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