Posted on 09/17/2015 4:10:14 PM PDT by onyx
If you’re a political junkie aching for hot takes, go ahead and sift through the hundreds of morning-after columns on the GOP debate. But if you want to know who actually won, better to consult the internet’s gambling addicts than its armchair pundits.
PredictWise — a site that calculates the probability of various events based on aggregated betting market odds — outperformed most pollsters and pundits in the 2012 presidential election, correctly predicting the outcomes in 49 of 50 states. Here's who, as of 4:30 p.m. Thursday, the free-market gods think won and lost last night’s debate.
Winners:
The two candidates to significantly improve their market valuation post-debate were former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina and longtime odds-on favorite Jeb Bush. Even as Bush’s poll numbers have declined, he’s maintained a commanding lead in the markets – one that only grew after last night’s face-off at the Reagan Library.
PredictWise now considers Fiorina the fourth-most-likely person to be the party’s standard-bearer — not bad for a candidate that couldn’t even crack the top ten in national polls less than a month ago.
Carly Fiorina: +4 percent to 10 percent
Jeb Bush +4 percent to 39 percent
Marco Rubio +2 percent to 17 percent
Losers:
The betting markets saw a bunch of losers on last night’s debate stage. Trump entered the Reagan Library leading the field in national polls. The Donald’s polling strength allowed him to stay at the back end of the lead pack, but his “low-energy” performance hurt him among bettors. Likewise, the markets seemed to view the debate as a missed opportunity for both Scott Walker and John Kasich. The Ohio governor’s odds had ticked up in recent weeks, as Bush’s flagging poll numbers seemed to open up space for another moderate from the party’s Establishment.
Walker -2 percent to 4 percent
Trump -2 to 13 percent
Ben Carson -1.5 percent to 6 percent
Kasich -1 percent to 4 percent
Also-Rans:
Huckabee, Cruz, Christie, and Paul moved little — all had probabilities of less than 5 percent before the debate and stayed roughly where they were. Cruz leads this crew with a 4 percent chance, Huckabee’s at 2 percent, while Christie and Paul both stand as 1-to-100 long shots.
The Democrats.
Sadly , Iowa , NH and DC are all open primaries ! Dems in those states have the power and probably stuck us with McCain and Romney and Dole
Well that is a good point. THAT needs to change.
Its was created on purpose by the Lib RNC to stop a real conservative from getting traction in the primary . Only Reagan was able to out maneuver them but since then its the hand picked Amnesty bought off hacks like Bush or Rubio, Walker or Carly that benefit from the sneaky set up.
Were you on the Board of Directors at HP?
Our side needs to stop the debate stuff after one or two more. After that it’s just beating up everybody, including the eventual nominee.
Having 11 debates in this day and age is nucking futz.
CNN is always looking out for their fellow leftists.
Jake Tapper who worked previously at Salon was the chief Dem in Charge of a nasty bloodbath meant to stop all the Amnesty talk and trash Trump because he can win in the general against Saint Hillary .
CNN plotted a better ambush than Murdoch .
How much foreign policy experience did Obama have?
Political bookie-ism will be the death of the republic.
He attended a Muslim school in Indonesia, so he was an “expert”
Exactly! It is just theatre.
How soon will it be before Trump drops out of the race?
It can’t be much fun for him now that he has to share the lead in the polls with people like Ben Carson whom he considers too ‘’low energy’’ and Carly Fiorina whom he can barely stand to look at.
If you don’t mind, I am going to reprint your comments on a thread I started for my own research. Thank-you
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/chat/3338081/posts?page=2
The next debate is moderated by Anderson Cooper on CNN. Do you think he get them to criticize each other or Obama?
And why does a low rating station get to be host. We conservatives should package and produce a debate and then sell it to who we want.
I was thinking of Frau Blucher from young frankenstein when she said that .....:o)
Im putting all my chips on another guy!
*NEIGH*
>> How soon will it be before Trump drops out of the race? <<
It might be if and when the MSM plus FNC & MSNBC stop giving him so much free publicity, which they certainly will do if they detect a fall-off in viewer/reader interest. At that point, he might need to start spending a lot of his own money in order to stay high in the polls — all the more so when serious negative ads against him begin in earnest.
Trouble is, Don’s whole business history indicates that he doesn’t like to risk his own money. Add to that the fact that his liquid assets are estimated at most to be a few hundred million bucks. So to finance a big national campaign, he might need either to start accepting large donations, or to mortgage some of his profitable properties. I’m not gonna predict either way. But the process surely will be interesting to watch.
Somebody’s going to lose their shirt.
“Trump was over 50% on all of them!!! It is OVER!!”
I like your enthusiasm but we’ve all been fooled before. The election is a marathon and not a sprint and anything can happen before the actual nomination.
I still think Carson and Fiorina are the GOPe stooges/trojan horses and plans B and C when Bush steps off.
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