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Why Donald Trump Won’t Fold: Polls and People Speak
New York Times ^ | August 22, 2015 | MICHAEL BARBARO, NATE COHN and JEREMY W. PETERS

Posted on 08/22/2015 1:50:50 PM PDT by NYer

In the command centers of Republican presidential campaigns, aides have drawn comfort from the belief that Donald J. Trump’s dominance in the polls is a political summer fling, like Herman Cain in 2011 — an unsustainable boomlet dependent on megawatt celebrity, narrow appeal and unreliable surveys of Americans with a spotty record of actually voting in primaries.

A growing body of evidence suggests that may be wishful thinking.

A review of public polling, extensive interviews with a host of his supporters in two states and a new private survey that tracks voting records all point to the conclusion that Mr. Trump has built a broad, demographically and ideologically diverse coalition, constructed around personality, not substance, that bridges demographic and political divides. In doing so, he has effectively insulated himself from the consequences of startling statements that might instantly doom rival candidates.

In poll after poll of Republicans, Mr. Trump leads among women, despite having used terms like “fat pigs” and “disgusting animals” to denigrate some of them. He leads among evangelical Christians, despite saying he had never had a reason to ask God for forgiveness. He leads among moderates and college-educated voters, despite a populist and anti-immigrant message thought to resonate most with conservatives and less-affluent voters. He leads among the most frequent, likely voters, even though his appeal is greatest among those with little history of voting.

(Excerpt) Read more at nytimes.com ...


TOPICS: Business/Economy; Constitution/Conservatism; Crime/Corruption; Politics/Elections; US: New York
KEYWORDS: 2016election; 2016polls; election2016; frontpage; newyork; trump
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To: dschapin

I think most if not all of the GOP candidates except Trump are free traders. Trump has said he is a free trader too. But he want’s balanced trade in trade goods. None of this we buy your goods and you buy our companies stuff. And he is not afraid to bring up tariffs to bring the trade back into balance. He intends to tell countries, you either negotiate a balanced deal or get a tariff.

I’m actually for the export bank. I don’t like the tactics that McConnel used. But the Export bank helps American exporters compete which means jobs. And it’s not really a subsidy that costs us anything. It’s using the government borrowing power to finance the exports at low rates and selling insurance. And the bank has made a profit which gets returned to the treasury. $7 billion in the last 20 years. Of all the things we could cut, that made the least sense.


41 posted on 08/22/2015 3:12:02 PM PDT by DannyTN
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To: dschapin

Why hasn’t Cruz voiced your concern? Why has he only had nice things to say about Trump as opposed to all the other Republican candidates?


42 posted on 08/22/2015 3:12:08 PM PDT by CaptainK (...please make it stop. Shake a can of pennies at it.)
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To: CaptainK

Cruz has been keeping his fire focused on the democrats and not really attacking any of the Republican candidates. I don’t know if I would use that strategy but it is certainly an honorable one.


43 posted on 08/22/2015 3:15:53 PM PDT by dschapin
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To: dschapin
That’s because conservatives are constructing their own personality cult around Trump. His campaign is just as lacking in substance as that of Barack Obama.

What crap! Trump is being far more specific than any of the other candidates, who speak in banal clichés. Plan for ISIS? Trump has one, the rest think saying they will call it ISIS "radical Islam" is a plan. They think saying they will "secure the border" means something. Everyone from Dubya to Obama said they will secure the border. That's not a plan. A wall is a plan. It goes on and on, Trump is being specific and others are playing catch up.

44 posted on 08/22/2015 3:20:10 PM PDT by Hugin ("First thing--get yourself a firearm!" Sheriff Ed Galt)
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To: Lazamataz; DannyTN
Trump is not for any new gun restrictions. As here describes media and leftist "distortions" that semi-autos (AR-15s) are the same as a 'select fire' or fully automatic weapons. The media has a "hard time" telling the difference between "assault rifles" from "sporting" and other guns.

- - - -

"Donald Trump:

“I certainly stand by my opposition to Gun Control when it comes to taking guns from law-abiding citizens. You mention that the media describes the AR-15 as an “assault rifle,” which is one example of the many distortions they use to sell their agenda. However, the AR-15 does not fall under this category. Gun-banners are unfortunately preoccupied with the AR-15, magazine capacity, grips, and other aesthetics, precisely because of its popularity.” "

http://www.ammoland.com/2015/07/donald-trump-talks-gun-control-assault-weapons-gun-free-zones/#axzz3fGGbBbmj

And we see further that Trumps does note, “To the Left every gun is an assault weapon” so he does understand the liberal game.

45 posted on 08/22/2015 3:37:41 PM PDT by Red Steel (Ted Cruz: 'I'm a Big Fan of Donald Trump')
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To: Red Steel

Thanks. Less concerned now.


46 posted on 08/22/2015 3:49:29 PM PDT by Lazamataz (Ok. We won't call them 'Anchor Babies'. From now on, we shall call them 'Fetal Grappling Hooks'.)
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To: NYer
After reading many of the comments I was surprised how many of the same people said that they would either vote for Trump or Sanders. They sounded as if there was no difference.

I guess readers of the NY Times are a little different.

47 posted on 08/22/2015 3:53:02 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Irish Eyes

Change they want and change they will get with either one. It’s what elected Obama. Dangerous, but it’s what we appear to have come to. I look upon Trump favorably at present but have reservations. If he’s on a ballot I’ll vote for him, but there are risks, of that I’m aware. The risks of continuing with the same old thing are readily apparent too, though.


48 posted on 08/22/2015 3:58:20 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: dschapin

Pardon me, but I have heard more substance from Trump than I have from any candidate on either side of the aisle.

Perhaps you have an attention deficit?


49 posted on 08/22/2015 4:02:31 PM PDT by dforest
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To: RegulatorCountry
Change they want and change they will get with either one.....................................................

Yes I agree, but IMHO one will be toward the light and the other to the dark.

50 posted on 08/22/2015 4:07:15 PM PDT by Irish Eyes
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To: Irish Eyes

There are somewhat surprising points of agreement between the two that may have something to do with it as well. Unfettered immigration, illegal and legal, during an almost decade-long period of economic difficulty and dislocation is obviously resonating across the board. They both have spoken against illegal immigration and at least hinted that legal immigration has been excessive. Sanders is afraid it will collapse the welfare state, one of the few rational things he believes. Trump views it as an existential threat to the nation itself, not in so many words but it’s there if you look. Also, he believes that it’s the purpose of government to defend the interests of the governed, the citizens. That’s a truism that has fallen to the wayside on both sides of the aisle politically. I’ve never understood what is supposed to be so wrong about being nativist when it comes to one’s own country and one’s own fellow citizens.


51 posted on 08/22/2015 4:13:38 PM PDT by RegulatorCountry
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To: dschapin

That is pretty much the case. I don’t hate Trump but needless to say he isn’t my guy and I am not going to jump on board with the fad candidate who says the right things. Actions and record always speaks louder than words in politics.


52 posted on 08/22/2015 4:15:15 PM PDT by American Faith Today
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To: dschapin

Take away Trump’s money in a hypothetical and create a situation in which he too has to rely on donations to his campaign and he is one of the good old boys of the establishment. He is Peter King or even Lindsey Graham. It is great that the reality is he won’t be bought. But one would think we would vet someone off of more than that. I guess not.


53 posted on 08/22/2015 4:23:35 PM PDT by American Faith Today
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To: WashingtonSource

I was thinking the same thing. LOL!


54 posted on 08/22/2015 4:24:21 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (I'm fed up.)
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To: sparklite2

Absolutely.


55 posted on 08/22/2015 4:27:12 PM PDT by RushIsMyTeddyBear (I'm fed up.)
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To: Kenny

Sigh

That is exactly what Trump is doing
He was for Obama before he was against him. Now he is screaming conservatism towin support


56 posted on 08/22/2015 4:28:26 PM PDT by American Faith Today
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To: dschapin
That’s because conservatives are constructing their own personality cult around Trump. His campaign is just as lacking in substance as that of Barack Obama.

Meanwhile, Trump has given far more substance and detail to his plans (from people constantly asking him about his plans) than any of the other candidates, even Cruz, who, when asked if deportation or not deportation (i.e. legalization) is off the table, replies "I believe that is something we can talk about after we secure the border."

IOW, even Cruz goes wobbly and light on details.

57 posted on 08/22/2015 4:31:11 PM PDT by Greetings_Puny_Humans (I mostly come out at night... mostly.)
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To: dschapin
You sound like a troll but I've 'splained this, in detailed historical and cultural terms here, many times. There are revolutions in voter behavior every 50-60 years and we are in the midst of one. In such revolutions, ideology becomes nearly irrelevant. This is largely because government reaches a point where it fails to deal with basic issues and the "strong man" is needed to shake the nation from its doldrums.

It's anything but a "personality cult." Rather its a backlash against the "cult of party" or the "cult of professional politicians." It occurred in 1828 with Andrew Jackson, in 1860 with an unknown named Lincoln who had extremely minor political experience, it occurred in 1904 with Teddy Roosevelt, who had been deliberately isolated as VP before he became pres with McKinley's assassination, but who won convincingly, and to a large extent it happened in 1980 with Reagan, who was probably the most "traditional" of all of the elections.

Trump is running an absolutely brilliant campaign in which he completely dominates the subject matter discussed, the time it's discussed, and how it's viewed. He spends absolutely nothing for media time, yet controls the media more than Reagan did. He is running not just against Dems but against the GOPe consultant class and the beltway professionals who see their livelihoods going away.

Ideology has become much less important (almost unimportant) because in two ideological elections (2010 2014) absolutely nothing was accomplished.

I couldn explain more, but I doubt it would register.

58 posted on 08/22/2015 4:40:50 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: olezip

I agree, but give him credit. He’s getting closer than almost any drive-by so far has, including so many bozos on “our” side who pump out one anti-Trump column after another in places like NRO, then whine and cry when no one agrees with them.


59 posted on 08/22/2015 4:42:04 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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To: dschapin

Maybe because Cruz wants to be his veep?


60 posted on 08/22/2015 4:43:12 PM PDT by LS ("Castles Made of Sand, Fall in the Sea . . . Eventually" (Hendrix))
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