7 ways the latest Fox poll is the Republican establishment's worst nightmare

Vox ^ | August 17, 2015 | Matthew Yglesias, Liberal American writer

[2ndDivisionVet]

National polls taken in August in the year before a presidential election do not reveal a great deal about whom the parties are going to nominate at their conventions the following summer. Still, you know this national poll of self-identified Republicans is not what Republican consultants, members of Congress, donors, and governors wanted to see after the Fox News debate.

Mark Halperin
✔ ‎@MarkHalperin NEW @FoxNews national poll. Trump & Carson big.

8:02 AM - 16 Aug 2015

From an establishment point of view this is a shockingly multifaceted disaster.

Let us count the ways:

1) Trump is unbowed, unbent, and unbroken

The Fox News debate hosts went hard at Trump and probably succeeded in making him even more toxic to a general election audience, but they didn't actually dent his support. Trump as the GOP nominee remains fantastically unlikely, but for now at least, Republicans need to keep talking about him, the media is going to keep covering him, and an independent run seems like a real possibility.

2) Ben Carson is rising, not falling

Before Trump-mania, the world was prepared for Ben Carson to play the role of not-gonna-be-the-nominee-but-polling-well-early. That meant Trump largely seemed at first to be overshadowing Carson. But Carson's poll numbers are now strong and rising. With Trump in first and Carson in second, all the actual politicians are lagging way behind.

3) Ted Cruz is beating the rest of the real politicians

Unlike the guys in first and second place, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is a real politician. And while it would be unusual for a first-term senator to win a presidential election, it did happen as recently as 2008, so it's not the craziest idea in the world. What would be crazy, however, would be for a party to nominate a first-term senator who's despised by the party's congressional leadership and whose record in office consists largely of counterproductive tactical blunders.

4) The Trump/Carson/Cruz/Huckabee vote is bigger than the Bush/Walker/Rubio/Kasich/Christie vote

Back on August 5, I was dismissive of Trump's lead in the polls on the grounds that when the more mainstream candidates' support was consolidated it still overwhelmed Trump. That's no longer really the case.

The combined 26 percent behind Bush/Walker/Rubio/Kasich/Christie is basically neck-and-neck with Trump. A majority of Republican voters currently say they like Trump, Carson, Cruz, or Huckabee — none of whom are acceptable to the party elites.

Simply consolidating everyone behind one of the candidates who is acceptable to elites isn't going to get the job done. Party leaders need to find a way to actually pry support away from one of the candidates who's unacceptable to them. So far, they have no idea how to do that.

5) The good performances didn't help

Watching the debate, I thought Ohio Gov. John Kasich and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio had the most impressive performances. So did almost every other journalist I know.

Guess who doesn't get a vote in the GOP primaries? Most of the journalists I know. And yet "can sound good to moderate-to-liberal journalists without conceding much on policy substance" is a skill that would be useful in an actual nominee. But Republican voters don't much seem to care about it.

6) The most likely nominees are underperforming

It still seems very likely that either Jeb Bush or Scott Walker will be appearing on the ballot in November 2016. The August slide in their poll numbers reminds us, however, that so far Bush has looked rusty and Walker has looked dull. These guys are having trouble getting Republican rank-and-file to care about them. And while there's little chance that will result in Trump or Carson becoming the nominee, it does mean that to ultimately win Jeb or Walker may have to fire up crowds with increasingly extreme positions.

Walker's debate contention — undisputed by Bush — that to be authentically pro-life requires making abortions illegal even when necessary to prevent a pregnant woman from dying is a hint of the kind of stance a long primary can draw out.

7) Mike Huckabee ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

For years now, people have been talking about Republicans' "strong bench" compared with the weak set of Democratic Party alternatives to Hillary Clinton. That bench is the legacy of the bumper crop of governors elected in the GOP's sweeping 2010 midterm victory, almost all of them reelected in 2014.

And yet, guess who is beating every single member of that farm team? A former governor who left office in 2007, ran for president in 2008, and whose views are anathema to the party's donor base.

[mc5cents]

That is exactly what I was thinking when I read that! Great minds think alike etc. LOL

[central_va]

This is now the Donald’s election to lose.

[CodeToad]

Not a bash on Cruz, who I hope does well, but if he was a strong contender and was getting his message out he should be polling higher than Carson and closer to Trump.

[SunkenCiv]

Hitlery has slipped below 50%, Sanders has come up strong, Biden (who’s just a beard, really) has 10%, which is just about what the other declared candidates have *combined*. Mwa ha ha.

New Fox Poll Features Some Big Surprises [For Both Parties]
http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/news/3325667/posts

[DannyTN]

To the contrary, Trumps conservative creds are actually quite good.

See my post on 42 reasons why Trump is a conservative

What really put me in Trump's corner, is that he is the only candidate that understands the link between trade policy and jobs. No other candidate talks about this. Cruz tried to give Obama carte blanc for new job killing free trade deals.

But the claim that Trump isn't conservative just doesn't hold water.

[Bobalu]

I have come to the conclusion that Trump will win the nomination IF the GOPe does not screw him out of it.

I have also come to the conclusion that they WILL screw him out of the nomination.

Therefore, IMO, Trump should go third party NOW unless he can secure a promise that no shenanigans will be pulled by the GOPe. The promise must go into great detail to ferret out every sneaky way that delegates can be denied to Trump.

In return Trump could then pledge to forego a third party run if he loses the nomination fairly.

If the GOPe will not make such a promise then Trump needs to run third party.... they are going to find a way to screw him IMO so the only choice is third party.

If they refuse to promise fairness in all matters related to the nomination then their agenda will be clear for all to see.

[Hawthorn]

>> There are a handful of “Christian conservatives” who are Huckabee-ites no matter what <<

What’s with the quotation marks? Do you doubt their sincerity?

[Tenacious 1]

But the claim that Trump isn't conservative just doesn't hold water.

My FRiend, Trump has been a democrat most of his life. He donated to democrats far more than he has donated to republicans. He has been out there in the public on this for most of his life.

Trump was a registered Democrat from 2001-2008. He switched his registration the very year that, in his telling, the Republicans “crashed the economy.” In truth, Trump is a natural Democrat. His views on major issues are — or were until recently — standard-issue liberal. (Copied from Rline)

[Trump] has supported massive tax increases on the wealthy, a Canadian-style single-payer health care system, and is a fierce protection. He once declared himself “strongly pro-choice” and favored drug legalization. He accused Republicans who want to reform entitlement programs — the essential task for those who favor limited government — of “attacking” Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid. Barack Obama couldn’t have said it better. (Also Copied from Rline)

Trump is only a conservative-come-lately. It concerns me. But I'll go read your post. I used Rline only because it was the first thing that popped up on google when I looked for some back up. There is a wealth and a long history. Trump in a known entity and there is plenty of research to do on him. I'm quite surprised, for all the RINO bashing we do here, that more aren't more suspicious.

[Tenacious 1]

Danny,

Your 42 reasons Trump is a conservative are all positions he has only recently switched to. Hell you date a few back to when he was just a young man, in 2011! These are his positions TODAY. He also gave Obama a pass and blamed Bush for the recession. You know, the recession caused by the junk loans Fannie Mae forced on the banking industry by buying all their bad debt and then bundling it and selling American realestate investments abroad? That predates Bush. Bush tried to stop it. Trump was wrong. And THAT’s when he switched from a Democrat to a Republican? Really? Not suspicious at all, huh?

1.Pro life since at least 2011, wanted to ban partial birth abortion as far back as 2000.
2.Says no funds for Planned Parenthood, while they do abortions.
3.Pro Traditional marriage. “Gay rights is not my thing.”
4.Pro capital punishment “Capital punishment isn’t uncivilized; murderers living is”
5.Hold Judges accountable
6.Opposes “Common core is a diaster” Teach citizenship, quit “dumbing down”.
7.Anti education unions (2000)
8.For school choice
9.”Climate Change is a hoax”
10.”No Cap-and-Tax”
11.For drilling our own.
12.On Environment “Good development enhances the environment”
13.Stressed the importance of a strong family & culture of life (2015)
14.Supports Israel
15.Opposes Iran deal and letting Iran obtain the bomb.
16.Wants to crush ISIS quickly.
17.Wants a military so strong no one will challenge us.
18.Against unbalanced trade deals that kill American jobs.
19.Against warrantless government surveilance of citizens.
20.Is against having a high national debt. Warns that $24T is a point of no return.
21.Againt gun control
22.For assault weapon ban but says the AR-15 shouldn’t be considered an assault weapon.
23.Wants to repeal Obamacare and replace it with market driven polices and increased competition among insurance companies.
24.Wants to increase military spending.
25.Will close the border to illegals
26.Will send the criminals and sponges back.
27.Will deport all illegals but will let the hard working ones go through the legal process to come back.
28.Against Anchor babies
29.Knows unemployment is much higher than official stats.
30.Will bring jobs back through better trade negotiation.
31.Attended military academy and Wharton Business School.
32.Stood up for Birthers and challenged Obama on his fraud.
33.Believes USA is “the greatest force for freedom the world has ever known”
34.Wants to honor commitments on Social Security and Medicare, which we can afford to do if he gets the economy going full steam.
35.Wants to reduce the fraud in disability and other programs.
36.Against marriage penalties in tax code.
37.Wants to reduce income taxes and eliminate corporate tax.
38.Wants to rebuld our infrastructure.
39.Wants to apply welfare-to-work to 76 other welfare programs (2011)
40.Doesn’t have time for political correctness.
41.Not afraid to call out either party or both when they are wrong.
42.Not a puppet to campaign donators

[DannyTN]

Since you didn't read my post before posting another hit piece on trump, I'll repost it here for you.

Why Trump is a conservative

1. Pro life since at least 2011, wanted to ban partial birth abortion as far back as 2000.
2. Says no funds for Planned Parenthood, while they do abortions.
3. Pro Traditional marriage. "Gay rights is not my thing."
4. Pro capital punishment "Capital punishment isn't uncivilized; murderers living is"
5. Hold Judges accountable
6. Opposes "Common core is a diaster" Teach citizenship, quit "dumbing down".
7. Anti education unions (2000)
8. For school choice
9. "Climate Change is a hoax"
10. "No Cap-and-Tax"
11. For drilling our own.
12. On Environment "Good development enhances the environment"
13. Stressed the importance of a strong family & culture of life (2015)
14. Supports Israel
15. Opposes Iran deal and letting Iran obtain the bomb.
16. Wants to crush ISIS quickly.
17. Wants a military so strong no one will challenge us.
18. Against unbalanced trade deals that kill American jobs.
19. Against warrantless government surveilance of citizens.
20. Is against having a high national debt. Warns that $24T is a point of no return.
21. Againt gun control
22. For assault weapon ban but says the AR-15 shouldn't be considered an assault weapon.
23. Wants to repeal Obamacare and replace it with market driven polices and increased competition among insurance companies.
24. Wants to increase military spending.
25. Will close the border to illegals
26. Will send the criminals and sponges back.
27. Will deport all illegals but will let the hard working ones go through the legal process to come back.
28. Against Anchor babies
29. Knows unemployment is much higher than official stats.
30. Will bring jobs back through better trade negotiation.
31. Attended military academy and Wharton Business School.
32. Stood up for Birthers and challenged Obama on his fraud.
33. Believes USA is "the greatest force for freedom the world has ever known"
34. Wants to honor commitments on Social Security and Medicare, which we can afford to do if he gets the economy going full steam.
35. Wants to reduce the fraud in disability and other programs.
36. Against marriage penalties in tax code.
37. Wants to reduce income taxes and eliminate corporate tax.
38. Wants to rebuld our infrastructure.
39. Wants to apply welfare-to-work to 76 other welfare programs (2011)
40. Doesn't have time for political correctness.
41. Not afraid to call out either party or both when they are wrong.
42. Not a puppet to campaign donators.

Source for most of the above and the image below...OnTheIssues.com

[zzeeman]

He donated to democrats far more than he has donated to republicans.

The facts don't back that up:

We went to two authoritative databases of campaign finance data to examine Ferguson’s numbers: OpenSecrets.org, to find federal donations, and FollowtheMoney.org, for state-level donations.

Trump has actually been relatively evenhanded in doling out cash to the two parties, but since 1989, he’s contributed over $350,000 more to Republicans running for federal and state offices, campaign finance records show.

Data from the Federal Election Commission and state elections offices provided by the two websites show that Trump has given $584,850 to Democrats and $961,140 to the GOP over the last 26 years.

source: http://www.politifact.com/punditfact/statements/2015/jul/09/ben-ferguson/donald-trumps-campaign-contributions-democrats-and/

[DannyTN]

"You know, the recession caused by the junk loans Fannie Mae forced on the banking industry by buying all their bad debt and then bundling it and selling American realestate investments abroad?"

You're wrong about the recession. Mortgages are a symptom of the economy not a cause. When people had jobs they qualified for the mortgages. Once people lost jobs, they could no longer pay for the mortgages. Every business down turn looks like a real estate bubble in hindsight.

The recession was caused by

1. 1) lowering the import tariffs back in the 60's, which caused a progressive weakening of the economy.
2. 2) An oil price spike starting in 2007, the likes of which we hadn't seen since the 1970's. And the failure of both parties to take any action to mitigate that possibility.
3. 3) The repeal of Glass-Steagall which kept banks from engaging in risky behaviors, which was a biartison legislation.
4. 4) Repeated attempts to bolster the economy prior to the crisis which had exhausted the Fed's room to respond to a liquidity crisis. For example the bank reserve ratio was already at an effective rate of 1%, down from the 15 to 20% in the 1970's.
5. 5) Bush's speech asking for crisis intervention which killed consumer confidence.

[DaxtonBrown]

“What would be crazy, however, would be for a party to nominate a first-term senator who’s despised by the party’s congressional leadership and whose record in office consists largely of counterproductive tactical blunders. “

Call me crazy and slap me silly.

I know I for one get all my conservative views from Halperin. Not. Actually, I don’t even give a toot for our own “conservative” pundit class right now.

[BobL]

I think what people are FINALLY realizing is that being right on 41 issues, or 1,499 issues, for that matter, DOES NOT MATTER if a particular Republican doesn’t “get it” on Immigration, all immigration.

Allow this country to flooded with people from South of the border and you will get a nation that looks and votes no different than those South of the border...and being correct on the other 1499 issues - Common Core, abortion, health care, etc. WILL NOT MATTER - since the Republicans will cease being a national party, just as happened in California when the state got flooded with them.

So we give Trump a pass on the other issues. As Rush pointed out today, 14 of the Republican candidates have supported Schumer’s version of Amnesty in some form, only Cruz and Trump have not. Furthermore only Trump has made it clear that ALL of the illegals need to go home, and although some, perhaps many, will be allowed back legally, we don’t know the terms, but they will be HIS TERMS, not their terms, and it may simply be work permits, where their wives and would-be anchor babies have to stay home. We shall find out.

As to the others, they had a DECADE to choose between the base and the Big Money on Open Borders, they went with the money - so now it’s over for them.

[RetiredArmy]

I normally don’t attempt to put religious beliefs as a “prime” reason for voting or not voting for someone, but it depends. I did not vote for Romney because I just felt he was not the guy. Thus, I skipped the president bracket of the ballot. It had nothing to do with his religion, though I do believe that Mormon is a cult because they do not believe in Jesus Christ as LORD. I have always looked at these people from the eyes of a soldier. This person is going to be my commander in chief. IS this the guy/gal I want leading me. To be absolutely perfectly honest, Ronald Reagan is the only one that I ever voted for that met “I want him as my commander in chief.” Not even GWB met that for me. I have voted since Nixon ran. Even he did not meet it. Gerald Ford, both Bushes, Romney, none of them did I want to be my CIC. Only Reagan.

[LS]

Interesting. I met Bush, never served, but I would have served under GWB if I could.

[Peter W. Kessler]

First and foremost, I’m a Cruz guy.

But, if Donald Trump runs away with the nomination, I’ll support him.

If Trump picks Cruz as V.P. running mate, I’m on board 1000%.

Go Cruz!!!

[grey_whiskers]

Teh Stupid, it burns.

He is not only going completely opposite to the GOP-e and their donors (Limbaugh pointed out prior to the Fox debate that these donors had sent out the word to sink Trump at all costs!)...but he's irrevocably burned a number of product lines and business relationships.

Trump is partly about his image: but he's about the *country*. He realizes that if we import the rest of Mexico, the country will not be worth living in; that if China manages to take the role as holder of the world's reserve currency, we're done; if Iran gets a nuke, we're going to get hit.

Name recognition and popularity? He's already a household name, already creating the "Big Tent" that Karl Rove masturbated over, and promised to create if only the GOP would sell out the country to the Globalists.

And $300,000 a speech? Are you sober? He's already a *billionaire*: the interest ON the interest of his fortune, at 1%, would be worth more than that.

I agree he might not stick to his conservative views once elected: and his "in your face" approach to any criticism would make it harder to turn him if he DID go the wrong way: on the other hand, the GOP-e isn't even pretending anymore. Even a 10% chance is better than the zero we have now.

I personally think he has ulterior motives: but that they really are *to restore the country* : and he realizes from his years in business, just what it would talk to accomplish this, as he's fought the bureaucratic red tape all his life.

[A CA Guy]

TAnd no one will Kelly or her war on journalism.

[longtermmemmory]

Do we have a poll with second choice?

If all those say Trump is their second choice there will be a gnashing of teeth in DC. (for those without teeth Obamacare will provide them)