Posted on 08/14/2015 8:01:19 PM PDT by NKP_Vet
Donald Trump may be the current GOP front-runner, but it's "doubtful in the extreme" that he will become the eventual nominee, let alone president, University of Virginia political scientist Larry Sabato says.
"The Summer of Trump is unlikely to turn into a Year of Trump," Sabato, who heads the university's Center for Politics, writes in a "Crystal Ball" report released Thursday, in which he ranks the presidential candidates while putting Trump into a category of his own: "The Un-Nominatable Front-runner."
"Trump is an early season fling for many people, fun while it lasts but doomed to break up somewhere along the path to the nomination," Sabato said. And while Trump is still topping polls, Sabato believes there are some signs that his polling numbers "may have peaked," and pointed to statistics that show few people are really actually paying attention to the race.
The "real contenders" boil down to five candidates: former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz and Ohio Gov. John Kasich, said Sabato.
But Trump has proven to be a "stick of dynamite thrown into the presidential pond," Sabato said, and Trump's campaign will influence the race while the party pushes to court his supporters to back the eventual nominee, assuming Trump doesn't mount his own third-party run next year.
(Excerpt) Read more at newsmax.com ...
Never liked this guy much.
Everyone’s got an opinion, this guy is the 1st one I want to hear from about it.
In a way I understand folks naming Bush. It is sort of like an alcoholic falling off the wagon. But, Kasich?
What do you bet it’s Walker and Carson?
3 out of 5 establishment flunkies.
What’s a Sabato?
You mean he doesn’t have “electability” ... like Romney?
Yep. That’s what they said in the MN governor’s race a number of years ago. The GOP better wake up and smell the roses ‘cuz most of us are thoroughly PO’ed at the GOP for selling conservatives down the drain.
Wizards of smart having to make up new words because of Trump.
Well, with that kind of brilliant, detailed analysis, who am I to disagree?
He thinks his numbers have peaked? What does he expect? For them to keep going up until they hit 100. It’s too early to be making predictions like this. Trump is doing fine, his last few speeches have been good.
“What’s a Sabato?”
It’s sort of like an erectile dysfunction. But not as pleasant.
If Trump does fold, I’ll bet his supporters go over to Cruz...That’ll drive the GOPe just as nuts...
Kasich is GOP-e Plan B.
Ping!
Paraphrasing Ann:
Supporting the electable gave us McDole, McCain, McRomney.
Supporting the crazy conservative gave us President Reagan.
Maybe Trump can get the GOPee to fold first.
Maybe the time is right for a viable third party.
Kasich cant be anything more than an Ohio delegate magnet for Heb Arbusto.
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