Posted on 08/09/2015 10:25:12 AM PDT by 2ndDivisionVet
For political pundits, the carnival they watched last night was an enlightening affair. Trump aside, they say, the Republican Party’s presidential aspirants performed admirably. The marginally tuned-in voter who watched the debate last night saw something quite different. This was a raucous event, a reality show with little redeeming value beyond its most entertaining aspects. That’s not necessarily a fair assessment, but it is an honest reflection of what they have come to expect from the Dadaist performance art that is Donald Trump’s campaign of self-promotion masquerading as a presidential bid. The pundits are, however, pundits for a reason; they understand the mechanics of an election cycle in a way that the casual observer does not. On the left and the right, political professionals and opinion leaders know what they saw: the beginning of the end of Trump’s bid for the Republican nomination. It is true that his staying power in the race has shocked everyone, but the debates mark the beginning of a different phase of this campaign. It’s coming, perhaps later rather than sooner, but the celebrity candidate’s deflation is a virtual certainty. As such, the tempo of the Democratic effort to ensure that Trump comes to be viewed as the face of the GOP will accelerate in the coming weeks. They know that time is not on their side.
The political classes have expended untold joules of energy in the effort to understand the Trump supporter. Quizzically cocking their heads to the side, they sought to dissect and classify this little-understood species. They observe that he is justifiably frustrated with Washington. They note that she is apprehensive about the state of the economy, her personal finances, and her children’s futures. They correctly contend that the politicians in whom they invested their trust jilted them. The Trump supporter is rendered virtuous insofar as his expression of outrage, however inchoate and self-defeating, is righteous.
There comes a time, however, when the case for the aggrieved Trump supporter ceases to be compelling, and the well of sympathy runs dry. If anyone was confused about Trump’s motives before last night, they have no excuse to remain so today. He is in this for himself. It was a fact demonstrated by his refusal to rule out a third-party bid or his insistence that he would only support the Republican Party’s presidential nominee if he were that nominee. He demonstrated no policy knowledge – indeed, he was proudly ignorant of the affairs of statecraft. Trump was rude, boorish, and indignant that his crudeness was subject to questioning by the moderators. His embrace of unalloyed liberalism just a few years ago fully exposed the celebrity candidate’s opportunism.
Yes, the majority of Trump’s support comes not from an admiration for his policy positions but his style. His supporters think he upsets the apple cart, and they so deeply resent that apple cart. But these individuals are now clinging to an ideal that has been thoroughly dispelled. Trump backers in the grassroots, and those in conservative media outlets who would enable their self-delusion are embracing a series of category errors. They mistake rudeness for self-assuredness. They confuse incivility for resolve. They see pugnacity and presume efficacy.
At a certain point, coddling Trump supporters and trying to understand their grievances becomes a futile enterprise. When a loved one is making a terrible mistake that will eventually do them great harm, the priority is not to preserve their fragile self-image. The priority is to save them from themselves, regardless of how bitterly they will resent your efforts. For some Trump backers, no amount of contradictory information will dissuade them from their self-destructive course. For most, however, the carnival barker was exposed last night for what he was. What’s more, the members of his own party exposed him.
Those who observe politics for a living understand that a critical mass of support comes not merely from the grassroots, but from influential members of the party infrastructure. There is a reason why, since 1980, pre-primary endorsements from prominent members of a political party have been a better indicator of which candidate will emerge from a competitive campaign to win the presidential nomination. Donald Trump will receive no party support, and only in part because he does not support the party. Trump has provided Republicans with the marvelous opportunity for a prolonged Sister Souljah moment, and most of the GOP’s leading candidates have taken it.
But what might have hurt Trump most was his aggression toward the Fox moderators, both on and off the stage. Near four a.m. on the East Coast, Trump took to Twitter to litigate his grievance against Fox. He called host and moderator Megyn Kelly “overrated” and retweeted a fan who referred to her as a “bimbo.” When pollster Frank Luntz’s panel of Republican voters failed to revere him in the fashion to which he has become accustomed, Trump called him a “clown” and a “joke.” Trump’s ego has compelled him to go to war with the very base of influential conservatives who sustain his support: those in the conservative movement’s entertainment sector.
Those Trump supporters who are immune to evidence that suggests their avatar of angst-fueled rebellion is not who he seems to be were always a minority within the GOP, but that minority is almost certainly about to contract. A Gravis Marketing poll of debate watchers conducted last night indicated that only Rand Paul performed worse than Trump. Whereas 34 percent of respondents said Paul lost the debate, another 30 percent said the same of Trump. No other candidate registered in the double digits. By contrast, a stalwart but modest 19 percent said that the reality star won the contest. While 36 percent said they thought better of Trump after the debate, another 45 percent said they thought less of him – again, a subpar performance outmatched only by Paul.
Repudiated by influential Republicans, by Fox News viewers, and, by virtue of his attack on the moderators, by Fox hosts, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to cast Trump as the face of the GOP. That makes the liberal project to ensure that he is seen as the face of the Republican Party all that more urgent.
“Mr. Trump is the face of the GOP: angry, white and male,” former Bill Clinton advisor and Democratic operative Paul Begala averred in mid-July. “He is the voice of the GOP. Hell, he’s even the hair of the GOP.” This was always a thesis in search of evidence, but at least it was based in polling. To continue to make this claim after the fallout from last night’s debate has settled smacks of wishful thinking.
The flailing effort to ensure that Trump remains the enduring symbol of a Republican Party that he only recently adopted and that he has repeatedly threatened to betray was exemplified in Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank’s most recent piece.
Milbank noted that debate moderator Megyn Kelly asked Trump to account for the fact that he had, in the past, insulted women by calling them “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals,” among other things. “The audience laughed,” Milbank noted. When Trump attempted to parry by claiming his barbs were only aimed at Rosie O’Donnell, “More laughter.” “I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct,” Trump retorted. “The debate crowd applauded,” Milbank insisted.
The columnist went on to note that the public thinks that the Trump candidacy is hurting the party’s brand. He cited a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that does support this contention. But that claim is not supported in that same poll’s findings that discovered that generic Republican candidates continue to best Democrats in a ballot test. If Trump is rubbing off on the GOP, it hasn’t hurt the party’s electoral prospects. Yet.
Milbank added that the rest of the slate of candidates on the debate stage sounded remarkably like Republicans and not centrist Democrats, somehow betraying the GOP’s post-2012 “autopsy” report recommendations. “Trump himself may have diagnosed the party’s problem best: ‘We don’t have time for tone,’” He concluded.
If Democrats want to make Donald Trump the face of the party he and his supporters vocally resent, they better do it quick. They’re running out of time, and they know it.
Did you read the article? IMO, here is the money line:
While 36 percent said they thought better of Trump after the debate, another 45 percent said they thought less of him
How's he doing in the Literary Digest poll?
Whatever else they say, they still come back to preferring him 3:1 over Bush and significantly over Cruz.
Yeah, I like Bobby Jindal, too. No one is 100% pure as the driven snow; but I can hope at least for someone decent in that job. (Why anyone now wants the job puzzles me.)
>> Whatever else they say, they still come back to preferring him 3:1 over Bush and significantly over Cruz <<
Maybe so. But my point is that DT’s prospects have gotta be more than a bit questionable when the unfavorables are significantly higher than the favorables. So we oughta keep an eye on both numbers, not just one.
Yeah, too bad. We could use one of their polls about now.
Not sure. I think it’s like the u favorables of a NASCAR race-—”oh I really don’t like it, I’m just here with a friend.”
Articles like this tell a lot more about the pretensions of the writers than they do about Donald Trump.
I’m becoming more and more convinced that Trump has been planning to go independent from the beginning.
It used to be a voice of rationality, especially back during the Cold War. Then the editor died, and under the new editor it went astray. I let my subscription expire.
Trump is on a lark. He didn’t expect to be taken near this seriously by so many people and really doesn’t know what to do next. But so long as the MSM will keep shoving mics in front of his face, he’ll keep sticking his foot in his mouth on a daily basis.
Obviously the Trump adorers who used to be GOP voters have no problem with him going third party, and also appear to have no problem with the fact that the Dems are trying to paint Trump as the typical conservative (wonder why?), so it would appear to me that said voters have every intention of leaving the GOP to vote for Trump should that become necessary.
Assuming that to be the case, why should we listen to them when it comes to choosing the GOP nominee? They’re going to leave anyway if they don’t get their way, right along with Trump. He’s obviously a “take my ball and go home when I don’t get my way” sort of guy, but I had no idea so many conservatives were the same sort.
The GOP should “disinvite” Trump from the next debate and let the chips fall where they may. He’ll flail around, let the spittle fly in all directions, and probably take 5% of the GOP voters with him, but at least then we’d be rid of Hillary’s stalking horse and can get back to deciding which of a dozen or more excellent candidates should be the GOP nominee.
You got it wrong...’WE’ are the GOP... ‘THEY’ are the 3rd Party in Washington.
Ah, another “I’m smarter than you, so listen to me” articles.
LOL.
No, you’re deluding yourselves. But if you are the GOP what are you doing chasing a guy that’s going to leave the party if he’s not nominated?
You are the 3rd party whether you admit it or not. Unless, of course, all this Trump mania is just a way to blow off steam before you help pick a candidate who won’t go down in flames to Hillary.
When the MSM is willing to give your candidate all the free publicity he wants, that’s not a good indication that you’ve chosen wisely.
If you’re really convinced that the GOP consists only of people who will sell you down the river, what are you doing in the GOP at all?
I get a little tired of the constant cynicism when the GOP has taken control of so many state governments and where they have control they’re doing an excellent job of turning things around in the states. I happen to think the same will happen once we get control of the Presidency, provided Trump and his followers don’t blow the opportunity to get that done.
Commentary magazine has been hysterically anti-Trump for weeks.
Thank you. Very well put. Just Trump’s admission that he won’t back the nominee primary voters eventually choose should end all support for him among Conservatives. He’s just in it as a spoiler and for the publicity. He can’t match the others’ knowledge about issues and their communication skills and that ticks him off. So, he resorts to insults and schoolyard name-calling that appeal to a certain segment of the population that admires crude blowhards who like to stick it to people who disagree with them. The country deserves better than this. It desperately needs something better than this.
I'd be willing to bet that most FRpeers would not make that pledge. Trump main issue is illegal immigration, how in hell can someone who's main issue is immigration pledge to support a Jeb Bush or any of the other amnesty candidates? Jezz this is not rocket science.
Personally I'm at the point there I think Trump should go third party. Screw the uniparty.
They can't. As much as some Freepers and others want to fit this years critical issues into liberal and conservative, they just won't fit. Legal and illegal immigration, bad trade deals and US sovereignty are more critical this election cycle, and liberal and conservative pols are all over the map on those issues.
Bump
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