The Trumpification of the GOP Is About to End

Commentary Magazine's Contentions ^ | August 7, 2015 | Noah Rothman

[2ndDivisionVet]

For political pundits, the carnival they watched last night was an enlightening affair. Trump aside, they say, the Republican Party’s presidential aspirants performed admirably. The marginally tuned-in voter who watched the debate last night saw something quite different. This was a raucous event, a reality show with little redeeming value beyond its most entertaining aspects. That’s not necessarily a fair assessment, but it is an honest reflection of what they have come to expect from the Dadaist performance art that is Donald Trump’s campaign of self-promotion masquerading as a presidential bid. The pundits are, however, pundits for a reason; they understand the mechanics of an election cycle in a way that the casual observer does not. On the left and the right, political professionals and opinion leaders know what they saw: the beginning of the end of Trump’s bid for the Republican nomination. It is true that his staying power in the race has shocked everyone, but the debates mark the beginning of a different phase of this campaign. It’s coming, perhaps later rather than sooner, but the celebrity candidate’s deflation is a virtual certainty. As such, the tempo of the Democratic effort to ensure that Trump comes to be viewed as the face of the GOP will accelerate in the coming weeks. They know that time is not on their side.

The political classes have expended untold joules of energy in the effort to understand the Trump supporter. Quizzically cocking their heads to the side, they sought to dissect and classify this little-understood species. They observe that he is justifiably frustrated with Washington. They note that she is apprehensive about the state of the economy, her personal finances, and her children’s futures. They correctly contend that the politicians in whom they invested their trust jilted them. The Trump supporter is rendered virtuous insofar as his expression of outrage, however inchoate and self-defeating, is righteous.

There comes a time, however, when the case for the aggrieved Trump supporter ceases to be compelling, and the well of sympathy runs dry. If anyone was confused about Trump’s motives before last night, they have no excuse to remain so today. He is in this for himself. It was a fact demonstrated by his refusal to rule out a third-party bid or his insistence that he would only support the Republican Party’s presidential nominee if he were that nominee. He demonstrated no policy knowledge – indeed, he was proudly ignorant of the affairs of statecraft. Trump was rude, boorish, and indignant that his crudeness was subject to questioning by the moderators. His embrace of unalloyed liberalism just a few years ago fully exposed the celebrity candidate’s opportunism.

Yes, the majority of Trump’s support comes not from an admiration for his policy positions but his style. His supporters think he upsets the apple cart, and they so deeply resent that apple cart. But these individuals are now clinging to an ideal that has been thoroughly dispelled. Trump backers in the grassroots, and those in conservative media outlets who would enable their self-delusion are embracing a series of category errors. They mistake rudeness for self-assuredness. They confuse incivility for resolve. They see pugnacity and presume efficacy.

At a certain point, coddling Trump supporters and trying to understand their grievances becomes a futile enterprise. When a loved one is making a terrible mistake that will eventually do them great harm, the priority is not to preserve their fragile self-image. The priority is to save them from themselves, regardless of how bitterly they will resent your efforts. For some Trump backers, no amount of contradictory information will dissuade them from their self-destructive course. For most, however, the carnival barker was exposed last night for what he was. What’s more, the members of his own party exposed him.

Those who observe politics for a living understand that a critical mass of support comes not merely from the grassroots, but from influential members of the party infrastructure. There is a reason why, since 1980, pre-primary endorsements from prominent members of a political party have been a better indicator of which candidate will emerge from a competitive campaign to win the presidential nomination. Donald Trump will receive no party support, and only in part because he does not support the party. Trump has provided Republicans with the marvelous opportunity for a prolonged Sister Souljah moment, and most of the GOP’s leading candidates have taken it.

But what might have hurt Trump most was his aggression toward the Fox moderators, both on and off the stage. Near four a.m. on the East Coast, Trump took to Twitter to litigate his grievance against Fox. He called host and moderator Megyn Kelly “overrated” and retweeted a fan who referred to her as a “bimbo.” When pollster Frank Luntz’s panel of Republican voters failed to revere him in the fashion to which he has become accustomed, Trump called him a “clown” and a “joke.” Trump’s ego has compelled him to go to war with the very base of influential conservatives who sustain his support: those in the conservative movement’s entertainment sector.

Those Trump supporters who are immune to evidence that suggests their avatar of angst-fueled rebellion is not who he seems to be were always a minority within the GOP, but that minority is almost certainly about to contract. A Gravis Marketing poll of debate watchers conducted last night indicated that only Rand Paul performed worse than Trump. Whereas 34 percent of respondents said Paul lost the debate, another 30 percent said the same of Trump. No other candidate registered in the double digits. By contrast, a stalwart but modest 19 percent said that the reality star won the contest. While 36 percent said they thought better of Trump after the debate, another 45 percent said they thought less of him – again, a subpar performance outmatched only by Paul.

Repudiated by influential Republicans, by Fox News viewers, and, by virtue of his attack on the moderators, by Fox hosts, it’s becoming increasingly difficult to cast Trump as the face of the GOP. That makes the liberal project to ensure that he is seen as the face of the Republican Party all that more urgent.

“Mr. Trump is the face of the GOP: angry, white and male,” former Bill Clinton advisor and Democratic operative Paul Begala averred in mid-July. “He is the voice of the GOP. Hell, he’s even the hair of the GOP.” This was always a thesis in search of evidence, but at least it was based in polling. To continue to make this claim after the fallout from last night’s debate has settled smacks of wishful thinking.

The flailing effort to ensure that Trump remains the enduring symbol of a Republican Party that he only recently adopted and that he has repeatedly threatened to betray was exemplified in Washington Post columnist Dana Milbank’s most recent piece.

Milbank noted that debate moderator Megyn Kelly asked Trump to account for the fact that he had, in the past, insulted women by calling them “fat pigs, dogs, slobs, and disgusting animals,” among other things. “The audience laughed,” Milbank noted. When Trump attempted to parry by claiming his barbs were only aimed at Rosie O’Donnell, “More laughter.” “I think the big problem this country has is being politically correct,” Trump retorted. “The debate crowd applauded,” Milbank insisted.

The columnist went on to note that the public thinks that the Trump candidacy is hurting the party’s brand. He cited a Wall Street Journal/NBC News poll that does support this contention. But that claim is not supported in that same poll’s findings that discovered that generic Republican candidates continue to best Democrats in a ballot test. If Trump is rubbing off on the GOP, it hasn’t hurt the party’s electoral prospects. Yet.

Milbank added that the rest of the slate of candidates on the debate stage sounded remarkably like Republicans and not centrist Democrats, somehow betraying the GOP’s post-2012 “autopsy” report recommendations. “Trump himself may have diagnosed the party’s problem best: ‘We don’t have time for tone,’” He concluded.

If Democrats want to make Donald Trump the face of the party he and his supporters vocally resent, they better do it quick. They’re running out of time, and they know it.

[2ndDivisionVet]

These people need to take their crystal balls into the shop. They're not working.

[LS]

Ah, now they want to “save us from ourselves.” Didn’t Hitler use a line like that? Anyway, Rothman clearly hasn’t seen the post-debate poll yet.

[libbylu]

That is the dude who left hotair. He is so wrong. You’d think they would have learned by now. Gee if I get a polling call I am going to lie and say Trump.

[Bobalu]

[Da Coyote]

So, I presume that the author really thinks that the establishment choice of the dumbest Bush EVAH....will result in a Republican President?

Actually, could happen, since JEB is simply Hillary light....and only slightly less ugly to boot.

[libbylu]

BTW who would read this crap? Title says all.

[DoughtyOne]

You know, I think that photo must have been taken after the anvil scene.

You know the one, where it’s tossed of the cliff by the Road Runner and falls on the GO... er Wiley Coyote’s head.

How can these writers still print that Trump is over? Haven’t they seen the other idiots lose face saying the same thing for weeks now?

This is downright comical.

[tumblindice]

Day ain't over yet.

[gaijin]

Isnt Commentary some northeastern, tassel loafer Neocon rag?

Sure seems like it.

[knarf]

D TRUMP COULD OPEN THE THIRD PARTY SO MANY SEEM TO WANT .... AND JUST MAY WELL BE A SUCCESSFUL CANDIDATE DOING IT, TOO !

[SamAdams76]

I don't think the final chapter has been written quite yet with respect to Trump. He has picked up over 200,000 supporters on Twitter since the beginning of the month, over 30,000 in the past 24 hours alone.

The other big gainers are Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina and Ted Cruz. So Trump appears to be having a positive effect in this race, considering that the MSM guns would be trained on our conservatives if he was not in this race to take the flak.

Name	Twitter Handle	8/1/2015	8/9/2015	Gain/Loss
Donald Trump	@realDonaldTrump	3,409,127	3,620,877	211,750
Marco Rubio	@marcorubio	772,150	802,150	30,000
Rand Paul	@RandPaul	654,236	663,415	9,279
Ted Cruz	@tedcruz	443,426	461,329	17,903
Ben Carson	@RealBenCarson	393,107	459,438	66,331
Carly Fiorina	@CarlyFiorina	384,524	431,855	47,331
Mike Huckabee	@GovMikeHuckabee	378,172	387,172	9,456
Rick Perry	@GovernorPerry	305,523	310,472	4,949
¿Jeb Bush	@JebBush	239,197	254,622	15,425
Rick Santorum	@RickSantorum	236,439	238,860	2,421
Bobby Jindal	@BobbyJindal	203,428	207,292	3,864
Scott Walker	@ScottWalker	167,564	183,525	15,961
John Kasich	@JohnKasich	80,497	93,327	12,831
George Pataki	@GovernorPataki	45,350	45,606	256
Chris Christie	@ChrisChristie	40,234	41,059	825
Linda Graham	@LindseyGrahamSC	23,043	23,921	878
Jim Gilmore	@gov_gilmore	356	795	439

[Resettozero]

These people need to take their crystal balls into the shop. They're not working.

Perfect summation!

Their. Balls. Are. Not. Working. No. More.

[Zuben Elgenubi]

I really like Commentary Magazine and read it frequently. The author makes some good points about the GOPe not supporting Trump, but did not predict the increased poll number for Trump after the debate, so he’s full of it.

[nhwingut]

I think this guy Noah was at HotAir at one time. He’s an establishment to the core. He made AllahPundit sound like a Freeper.

Sadly, HotAir is now part of the Salem RINO propaganda network.

[867V309]

Trying to read this reminded me of trying to listed to Michael Mudhead on radio. He tries to drown you with words that don’t amount a pile of dust.

[NormsRevenge]

..the well of sympathy runs dry..

when we run out of gunpowder, wake me..

I’ll wail buckets for this po’ bastard.

[Lopeover]

Nope! Wrong-oh! Fox was responsible as the hosting network for setting the tone. This isn't about Trump it is about the uniparty, CoC and Marxist media wanting to pick our candidate. Fox had the opportunity of a lifetime to set the standard. Instead they lowered the bar to the MSNBC rung. So long Fox! So long Kelly Megyn, you bloody beach! We'll find a new home! You betcha! 🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸

[Georgia Girl 2]

None so blind as those who will not see.

[NormsRevenge]

He made AllahPundit sound like a Freeper.

—

now , that takes some doing. ;-)

[HarleyLady27]

...more viral waste being spewed across the nation...

I can just see them in a huddle going, well that didn’t work, it seems nothing is working, what are we going to do...if he wins, we are on the street like bums....

LMAO....I just love it....