Posted on 08/01/2015 8:34:20 AM PDT by E. Pluribus Unum
I consider myself more an activist than a politico. That said, I’ve worked on campaigns and have a good understanding of what makes them tick. I’ve worked on city level races, county races, federal house races, a senate and a Gubernatorial race.
Some things are always unpredictable. But others are always predictable. Inevitably, there are candidates whose fans/followers believe that through sheer will their candidate can and will win. I watched this happen with Sharon Angle in Nevada, Christine O’Donnell in Delaware and Doug Hoffman in New York. There are many, many other examples of it over just the past six years.
You have an “insurgent” candidate who captures the hearts and minds of those loyal to principle over party, but the candidate ignores the basic fundamentals of campaigning and pays for it dearly. Sure, candidates like Trump, Palin and Angle have fans who will crawl over glass to help them. When it came to Angle I was one of those fans. I know Angle personally. I knew here when she was an Assemblywoman in Nevada’s 26th AD in Northwest Reno. I knocked doors with her to push her Prop 13 ballot initiative. I then volunteered for an eventually worked for her run against Dean Heller (then Secretary of State) for Nevada’s 2nd Congressional District. And I was invited to her campaign’s special hotel suite in Vegas as it was announced that she had won the Senate primary, shocking the political realm and handing Sue Lowden a stunning defeat.
Angle then went on to suffer a huge defeat by Harry Reid. One that left her supporters with their faces in their hands, confused as to what happened and how it happened.
No doubt Reid’s political machine used some questionable tactics. No doubt there was fraud involved. But ultimately Reid’s campaign flanked Angle at every turn. It didn’t matter how dedicated and determined Angle’s team was because Reid had the money, the network, the players and the infrastructure needed to outgun Angle in every way possible.
A Presidential campaign is certainly an entirely different animal in terms of scope and scale. Running a statewide campaign is a beast in and of itself. But running 50 statewide campaigns simultaneously is a whole different kind of monster.
Take Florida, for example. Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker has reportedly decided to somewhat sit out the Florida primary. This move, in my view, is the right move and only logical move their team can make.
Why? Because Florida is very, VERY expensive. Florida is a massive state covering multiple expensive media markets. To give you an idea, the Romney campaign spent more than $11,000,000 on ads alone in 2012. That doesn’t include the pro-Romney Super PAC outfits. Nor does it include what Romney had to spend to have staff, offices and GOTV infrastructure in place in virtually every county in Florida.
Both Jeb Bush and Marco Rubio have run statewide campaigns in Florida. Both already have a statewide foundation to build on. They know the county chairmen/women, they know the organizers, they know who ran the show for them locally before, they know where to get the deals on GOTV infrastructure and they know who they need to be friendly with vs who they need to ignore.
Why would Scott Walker spend millions trying to compete with that when, in all honesty, he can’t win there? Walker is right to pass on Florida. It’s not that he’s going to ignore Florida voters, but he’s certainly going to keep his powder dry and save his big guns for states where he can actually win. Which, in all honesty, is about every state outside of Florida. I mean, outside of Florida, what other state is a guaranteed win for Jeb Bush?
Yeah, let me know when you figure that one out.
Getting back to Trump…
As Newt Gingrich showed us, a lead in the polls is irrelevant if you can’t build campaign infrastructure and get voters to the polls and/or caucuses. And, as Newt so painfully learned, if you’re not prepared for the carpet-bombing of attack ads that will come your way, you’re toast.
And if you think the negative ads that destroyed Gingrich were, bad, you ain’t seen nothin’ yet. If I were a coms consultant for an anti-Trump Super PAC or campaign I would be licking my chops right now. Trump supported late abortion, used eminent domain for his business gain, supported universal healthcare and spread around money to the most liberal of liberal Democrat candidates.
Now on a personal level I agree with Sarah Palin’s perspective of Trump’s background and positions.
Shouts of, “But he donated to Democrats!” won’t sway Trump enthusiasts. The man built a skyscraper in New York City – of course, he had donated to Democrats. If he was building it in Salt Lake City, I’m sure he would have donated to Republicans. “But he changed his mind on positions!” Reagan had been an FDR Democrat. Should we hold that against him or be grateful he saw the light?
Well, that’s a part of the story. Yes, Trump enthusiasts won’t be swayed. But don’t underestimate the power of the old school social club known as the GOP establishment’s ability to command and control the primary/caucus game.
I’ve seen this first hand. Up close and personal. Conservatives, libertarians and “plugged in” independents tend to be aware of what’s happening year round, regardless of whether or not it’s an election year. But the older ladies wearing sparkly GOP hats and the men in suits with the fancy elephant pins on their collars don’t fully plug in until a couple months out. And when they do, they bring enormous persuasion to the process. Because those people are the party’s county chairs. Those people each bring 50 more people with them to the table. Those are the people who show up out of nowhere and dictate who the more “electable” and “next in line” candidate is. And election after election those people defeat the insurgent candidate when the rest of us think we might have finally solved the puzzle.
Now I’ll admit Donald Trump brings a certain anomaly into the mix. Trump has some extraordinary abilities that Herman Cain and Ron Paul never had. If Trump were positioned like Herman Cain was last time around and team Obama hit him with dirty accusations about his marriage, Trump would simply tell the media to pound sand. And he would back that attitude up with millions of his own dollars to re-enforce said statements.
No doubt, Trump brings a new level of fight to an ugly battle. But don’t for a second think the party bosses and their armies aren’t ready for it. Their playbook is effective and entirely predictable.
The big business, pro-Bush Super PAC are going to unleash an unholy barrage of ads on Trump that will have people who casually pay attention scared to death of Trump as a political leader. And while they initiate this scorched earth political bombing of Trump, the Bush campaign will be running ads that establish him as a “safe” former Governor who cut some taxes and knows how to be a polished leader.
While the pro-Trump groups should be defining Bush for what he really is… a big government, big business hack who will do virtually nothing to slow the massive expansion of government. A political machine that favors government over liberty. A guy who will continue the rotting of American sovereignty in favor of global order. A politician who will do nothing to secure our borders and will help the continuation of the invasion because it pads the pockets of his big corporate benefactors. The pro-Trump entities will instead be stuck in a never-ending position of defense, scrambling to convince the casual crowd that Trump isn’t evil and is looking out for their best interests.
If you think this won’t be the case then you don’t understand how the machine works. Trump can certainly redefine how certain parts of the game are played, but he can’t redefine the entire game.
Trump’s campaign and supporters need to think beyond today and fast. Right now Trump operates almost entirely in the 24 hour media cycle. It’s a strategy that is proving wildly effective in the short term. But it’s a strategy that in many ways isn’t prepared for what’s to come.
My advice to Trump’s army of supporters is simple. You need to relax on preaching to the choir. Trump is doing a fantastic job on that front. What you need to be doing is finding out who your county GOP chair is, who the establishment activists are, and you need to cordially and politely be warming up to them. Then, you need to be in the meetings, the social events and gatherings helping them all understand why Trump could work for America.
Don’t be like the Ron Paul fans. The Paul crowd ridiculed and mocked the party bosses, which ended up hurting Paul in the long term. Instead of converting minds, the Paul fans just pushed minds further away, making the party establishment resent them in every way possible.
Don’t try and hide Trump’s past political sins. Instead, embrace them and help others understand that even Reagan himself had similar sins. Trump represents a great American story. One of many failures, but one that used those failures to learn success. One that had a man in the heart of big government liberal policies (New York) who emerged a financial mega-star through hard-headed maneuvering and powerful management skill.
America is done with shiny politicians. We’re over the political lies and promises. We’re ready for a bull in a China shop and Trump can be that bull.
Unfortunately, there is still one hell of a roadblock in place and it’s called the GOP establishment. Trump is right to engage in combat with the establishment. But at some point the Trump train will need to use the establishment’s tracks. Blowing up those tracks isn’t the answer on the long term front. Because in doing so the establishment will quickly build a bypass for the Bush train.
Mark my words…
The planet of “America First”! Screw China, Japan, Mexico and others stealing our jobs.
Just thinking about the consternation of the little old ladies in sparkly GOP hats is enough to make me vote for Trump. And don’t forget their husbands, the Chamber of Commerce Continental-driving country club Republicans.
I hope it hangs on through Christmas. I’m stocking up on little baby Donalds in a manger and beardeded Donalds in a sleigh.
He will stay just long enough to drive conservative candidates out and then leave the campaign. I’m not saying this will happen, but it is my fear that this will happen.
Let’s don’t manage by fear. Let’s manage by facts, and actions. So far, Trump’s actions and facts (things he’s said he’ll do, that he’s done) are giving us EVERY indication he’s in this win this.He’s put a LOT on the line, for this run.
The long knives of the GOPe AND so-called conservative groups (Koch Bros’ Americans for Prosperity) are out for Trump. Tells me what I need to know.
A very naive statement...
Trump may not need the GOPe money or Super pacs, but he needs their political process...
That process is the delegates from each state who vote in the convention.
That process can and will be manipulated not to Trump's advantage...
Bingo. That's the big "if." That would be Perot 2.0, designed to lead to Hillary 1.0.
On the other hand, he's been slamming Hillary pretty damn hard. But if he drops out, does it really matter? Once he drops out or splits the vote, the deed is done and Hillary just wins on the math, no matter what anyone thinks of her.
After all, the soccer moms vote as they're told - Hillary could be literally in prison and they'd elect her President without a second thought.
I'll enjoy watching Sununu's fat head explode if the Donald gets the nomination.
Scouts Out! Cavalry Ho!
Excellent post
The remarks about Christine O’Donnell hit close to home.
She really was a great candidate—smart, pleasant,had strong, conservative positions, smart, likeable. I saw her talk to farmers and to college students—with equal ease.She knew the issues and she was articulate.
When she clinched the nomination from Mike Castle,who was the favored GOP candidate for the Senate seat—in fact, he was all but assured of it-— the Karl Rove machine really kicked in to destroy her. We had far more opposition from the GOP-E here in DE than from the Dems.
And Chris Coons, who beat O’Donnell, is a moron—who became Harry Reid’s little pet. He touted his abilities as New Castle County executive, until just after the election, it was revealed that the County was in debt—whoops—thanks to his stewardship.
The media, the GOP-E, the dems were all arrayed against her.
And she fought hard. But we only had seven weeks from the nomination to the election to fight back, and it was uphill all the way.
We lost in 2010 by 25,000 votes.That margin was much less than the number of Republicans who did not vote in New Castle County. Had the New Castle County Republicans up north voted for their party’s candidate, we would have won. But they stayed home and gave the seat to Coons.
After all, we couldn’t have a non liberal Republican upstart win in Democrat Delaware!
The media attacks came and came, often without time or resources to fend them off.
In my mind, she is still a far better candidate than most in the GOP today.
The attacks will come against Trump, but I have a feeling he is ready for them.
He has already torn the pressholes a couple of new ones.
Pass the popcorn.
And they don’t seem to get that, do they !
Bump for later.
This is so delusional. Angle, Cain etc were conservatives. Trump is a straight up liberal.
That really turned me off Walker. MS should have been a watershed eye-opener to everyone just how dirty the DC Cartel would play and everyone involved shunned by the decent.
As Albert Einstein said: The definition of insanity is doing the same thing the same way over and over again, expecting a different result.
Other than their polling (WTF?), you'd have to be a fool to try to compare Trump to Newt...PERIOD. End of story.
Oh, I know, lets compare Newt shopping at Tiffany's for his wife (remember that?) and Trump shopping at Tiffany's for his wife.
Newt has to show the cash/credit card/ID...Trump makes a call, puts it on his account, has it delivered...Who's the fool in that picture?
and Trump is that, how?
Seriously. Nothing about Trump says "leadership".
He uses a famous name to build something (paying off politics, eminent domain and stuff), attracts other investors by his fame and then he cashes in and the place goes bankrupt.
“Based on Einstein’s definition, it’s insanity to think we can infiltrate the GOPe and win.”
Good point! We’ve tried that and lost, ended up with an establishment candidate.
I think Trump IS planning on using the GOPs ‘tracks’, as the article refers to. That’s why he threatened to go 3rd party if they weren’t nice to him - to get their attention. And to get them to play on his terms. He’s not acquiescing to them, as past candidates have done nor is he totally distancing himself from them. He’s different from anyone they’ve had to deal with before - and that makes them nervous. Win or lose, it will be fun to watch.
He may be wrong on a couple of counts.
Bush probably will not carry FLA.
Trump is holding the trump card (pun intended) on the GOPe
Since he is a 3rd party threat unless he is treated well by the party. Seems like he has them over the barrel.
Also, expect MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD FROM THE LEFT!
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