Posted on 06/19/2015 10:52:26 AM PDT by nickcarraway
At FiveThirtyEight, we like to celebrate outliers. LeBron James’s Cleveland Cavaliers may end up losing in the NBA Finals, but James’s performance has been outlandishly good. In the same vein, I want to congratulate Donald Trump, who reportedly will declare today that he is running for president.
Trump is the anti-LeBron — popularity is performance in politics, and Trump is the first candidate in modern presidential primary history to begin the campaign with a majority of his own party disliking him. A whopping 57 percent of Republicans have an unfavorable view of Trump, according to an average of the three most recent polls. That beats former record holder Pat Buchanan, who had a 43 percent unfavorable rating at this point in the 2000 election cycle.1 Buchanan, of course, ended up running as an independent.
Taking into account name recognition, Trump’s net favorability rating (favorable minus unfavorable) of -32 percentage points stands out for its pure terribleness at this point in the campaign. Like his unfavorable rating, it is by far the worst of the 106 presidential candidates since 1980 who are in our database.
For this reason alone, Trump has a better chance of cameoing in another “Home Alone” movie with Macaulay Culkin — or playing in the NBA Finals — than winning the Republican nomination.
Well when you’re on the bottom, there is only 1 way to go...
When the dust settles, he’s going to be in the top 5 IMHO.
Just saying...
(half-hour speech by Trump about two months ago)
It was at a GOP meeting. Listen to the first three minutes, then if you’re not interested turn it off.
But the first entire three minutes... I think it is a very strong speech.
What other candidate in either party, is saying one of the things which Trump said there, for an entire half-hour?
So, about trying to outdo Huck on entitlements....what say you?
I have never known of any "conservative" to support any Republican candidate who is supportive of the assault weapons ban until now.
The posters on here aren’t Conservative...they are paid hacks. you know, the same ones who Donald had ot pay to show up for his rally.
Hillary is not a real candidate AT ALL, but I have very knowledgeable sources telling me she’ll win it by hook and crook. It doesn’t matter WHAT people think. The game is rigged.
Just saying.
I saw an interview between Trump and Hannity just after Trump’s announcement, I believe it was broadcast from Trump Tower.
In it, both of them confessed to having concealed carry licenses. In New York.
Trump is not for gun control.
He’s as much a “real” candidate as any other, popularity has nothing to do with it. Knock off the crap.
If he stands no chance, why spend any of the bullets on him?
How is he a real candidate? He has no intention of actually running, and he’s doing it for attention and to smear conservatives. How many candidates do the Clintons need in the race?
You're just not getting this, are you?
Words are not deeds, my friend. A wise person judges others by what they DO, not by what they SAY.
Donald Trump has not laid down a consistent track of conservative deeds in his life. Even his words have been inconsistent over the years. Sometimes he's favored our time honored republican ideals, and other times he's favored liberal ideas.
That tells you all you need to know about him -- namely that you can predict with certainty that he'll continue to do in the future, what he's done in the past - which is flip-flop from one political extreme to the other.
Coming on the heels of the eight year disaster known as Obama, we need a strong and consistent conservative who has not shown Trump's propensity to waver, and who possesses guts of steel.
Dianne Feinstein, the author of the 1994 bill that banned "assault weapons", had a CCW. Hypocrisy on the issue is common among liberals.
Trump said he is for the Second Amendment. I acknowledgement that. He also said he is FOR banning the "assault weapons", which, as we know is any weapon liberals feel looks scary. My 12 guage, should I put a pistol grip on it would qualify as an "assault weapon" and Trump, as would his fellow liberals, would then be all for banning it.
He is a kook, and I cannot believe any conservative would buy his pro-Second Amendment BS when he is so blatantly hypocritical on this issue.
Maybe not for himself, but for you....?
I can’t understand why Trump is not running as a democrat. The whole right side of that party is wide open waiting for someone to say I am not a socialist,but I do like growing government.
The thing is, everything he says is completely right on, and everyone else is silent.
I don’t know why, but Trump is the only one talking about making America stronger.
He’s it. The other candidates need to say what they’re supporting and what they’re planning.
Why is everyone so darned quiet?
Fixed it for you.
Wow.
btw...the man has done nothing but make wild claims he has absolutely no real plans of carrying out. But if empty promises does it for you, go ahead and continue defending a liberal who not only has voiced his opposition to conservative causes, but has also supported the Clintons.
I firmly believe that one day soon Trump himself will cause you to regret your choice.
Are you really so easily swayed and impressed by mere WORDS?
Trump put his money on Democrats to the tune of hundreds of thousands of dollars, but none of that matters now, because he's saying things you want to hear.
To get your vote.
Crikey...
By the way, there’s another segment of that video, which is worth a watch.
It’s about 23:30 - 24:00. Trump receives a standing ovation from the crowd, his finest moment I think in a good appearance.
It’s sort of funny in fact:
23:30 - 24:00 or thereabouts.
Just a half minute or so.
Another standing ovation around 27:30 or 27:45, also good.
Those two moments are worth a look, if you’re so inclined.
Best regards.
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