Posted on 06/09/2015 7:55:34 PM PDT by MinorityRepublican
President Bashar al-Assad’s military has suffered two more crushing blows as it crumbles on both fronts in the long Syrian war - against Islamic State jihadists and other rebel groups.
(Excerpt) Read more at telegraph.co.uk ...
Assad may cut a deal; that’s been in the news before.
Odd story here: http://justsecurity.org/23528/assad-put-crosshairs-working-isil/
That's because our pilots aren't being allowed to hit anything.
And the number of our airstrikes is way low daily, no more than 20.
And the number of our airstrikes is way low daily, no more than 20.
Pat Buchanan was saying if the rebels do win it and take Damascus, then, ISIS will square off against Al Nusra. Anyway, it’s his column from a few weeks ago. That said, he’s not always right and probably knows little more than a lot of us do.
There have been plenty of news stories that Assad has bombed more moderate rebels and has himself, indirectly helped the extremists of ISIS. What a mess.
The time to be polite is passed. Push them down the stairs.
Under the Black Flag, Radio Free Europe:
http://www.rferl.org/archive/under-the-black-flag/latest/17257/17257.html
Syrian Human Rights Observatory - London
http://www.syriahr.com/en/ (They do report on wrongs done by everyone)
Iranian fighters go to Syria to help defend Damascus
Foreign forces arrive as Islamic State has said it will mount an offensive against the capital
Thousands of Iranian, Afghan and Iraqi fighters have arrived in Syria to defend Damascus and its suburbs against Islamic State (IS), which has said it will mount an offensive against the capital following recent battlefield successes in Deir al-Zor and Palmyra.
So far, 7,000 have reportedly been positioned around the city. They are expected to go on the offensive to retake from fundamentalist militiamen the suburb of Jobar from which they can easily access the eastern gates of the city."
Meanwhile the Kurds are carving out their chunk in the north and east, and the whole north end of Iraq. Hezbollah is taking over Lebanon and the western mountains of Syria.
Great links. Thanks for posting.
Nothing could go wrong here.sarc
Great tagline. Exactly right.
What happens next is Isiah 17.
had to look it up. powerful stuff.
Iran is already sending in thousands of troops, but the fact is that the country is gone. The national entity that was called 'Syria' no longer exists on the ground, in much the same manner that 'Iraq' no longer exists. While the split of Iraq is far clearer (Shiite/Iran influenced territory to the East, Kurdish influenced territory to the North, and to the West the eastern-flank of ISIS held territory), for Syria it is more convoluted as there are a number of groups fighting for ground.
However, the clear winner is ISIS, and my opinion of what will happen is that Assad and his forces will retreat to the Mediterranean coast of Syria to the extreme Wast of the country, and they will basically make a last stand there. That is tribal Alawite territory, it is mountainous, and with the sea at their back they have no choice but to fight or die. It will be difficult for ISIS to dislodge them from there, and it is possible that an Alawite land-hold could be established. It is also likely that Iranian support will focus on that last bastion (as well as Damascus, of course).
I know there are some who are happy about the fall of Syria as a prime enemy of Israel (a country I fully support) has been taken off the board, but in my opinion that would be a highly (highly) erroneous view of things. All that has happened is that a government that could have been negotiated with and/or bombed has been replaced with an amorphous entity that cannot be negotiated with and is harder to bomb.
Another way of thinking about this is as follows: after 9/11 the West rightly knew it was imperative to destroy Al Qaeda and the Taliban. The Taliban because this was a group that was running an entire country that was being used as a terrorist base the size of a nation, and Al Qaeda for obvious reasons.
Well, in ISIS you have an organization that has done in less than two years something that Osama thought impossible - conquering and holding vast geography -, are spreading and integrating with other jihadi groups from West Africa to South East Asia, and once they have finished their land grab in the 'easy' countries (by 'easy' I mean the countries that were gift-wrapped for them: Iraq, Libya and Syria), they will turn their attention to the 'next set' (read: Jordan, Saudi Arabia), and of course the West.
But to answer your original question, Syria as a country is gone. You will have:
- a small Alawite/Shia splinter to the extreme West (decades ago there was a push for an Alawite state before the Alawites started ruling Syria);
- A Kurdish splinter to the extreme north (and I see the Kurds in Iraq and Syria someday bringing trouble to Turkey, which has a sizeable Kurdish population);
- a small piece of land controlled by the rebels (non-ISIS affiliated, with some of these rebels being Al-Nusra ...which is the local name that Al Qaeda in Syria is using);
- and finally over half the country controlled by ISIS.
Let me close by saying this - the next time a country considers 'regime change,' whether it is removing Saddam, Qaddafi or Assad, it is imperative to ascertain that there is a viable replacement available to fill the vacuum. If there is none, then the ONLY course of action is the Gulf War One (Senior Bush/Colin Powell) doctrine of smiting the heck out of the enemy, but leaving him and his systems in place.
Thanks. that was really informative. and scary. I wonder what the real numbers for ISIS are. 40000 taking over parts of three countries? seems so crazy. and didn’t a US general or somebody say 10000 have been killed?
I cant believe Syria is gone. Iraq in tatters. Jordan and Saudi Arabia next? And 18 million Kurds in Turkey that now have representation in the govt. but will it be enough for them or will they want their own country? just wow.
So when Assad falls who then will run Syria? Turkey going to step in the gap before the animals take over?
When Assad falls - and it is starting to look like a 'when' rather than an 'if,' unless he immediately moves to establish the 'Alawite state' I had mentioned - there will be no one to run Syria. Why? Because, even at present, Syria does not exist. As we chat, ISIS controls over 50% of the country and still appears to have quite some pep left in its step based on its current gains.
Syria is fallen.
The only questions are whether Assad will survive or go the way of Qaddafi, how big the Alawite 'state' in the West of the country-formerly-known-as-Syria will be, and whether ISIS will make moves into the northern part of the c-f-k-a-Syria and engage the Kurdish Pershmerga. That is it! Just those two questions! There is no query whatsoever of what may happen once ISIS wins ...the other rebel groups, the Al-Nusra Al-Qaeda unit, and any other units operating are simply not a match for ISIS. To be honest I am quite surprised that Al-Nusra is still functioning.
As for Turkey ...they are protected from direct attack by ISIS by their military (the best Moslem military), but primarily by the Kurdish Persmerga on their southern borders. They will not step in to help the Pershmerga though as they have a real Kurdish question in their own country, and a question that based on the recent elections is gaining real political strength.
The only questions, as mentioned, is the survival of Assad, the nature of the Alawite splinter, and whether ISIS will attempt to engage the Kurds in the c-f-k-a-Syria. That last question is important as ISIS did not have a good experience against the Kurdish Pershmerga in Iraq, and to be honest that is the ONLY group in the WORLD that has (to date) managed to stop ISIS. It is complicated though, as continued Pershmerga success doesn't make Turkey very happy.
As for the Alawite state ...I think what you will see is that once they are pushed to the sea, the Alawite-Shia fighters will engage with a ferocity that would make even the Pershmerga proud! When all you have is a simple choice between fighting like a beast, or getting slaughtered like one, things get crystal clear very quick! Thus, I think the Alawite splinter will survive - unless the West/Saudi Arabia decide to start bombing them. The Saudis seem intent to bomb anyone not Sunni.
As for Assad's survival ...live or die the man is finished.
As for ISIS - this is what I see. The only groups that will successfully fight them are the Kurdish Pershmerga and (well knit) Shia militia groups (probably buttressed by Iranian special forces units from the Quds group). However, these groups will be fighting simply to hold an existing position, and thus ISIS will spread at will (just leaving the northern parts of the c-f-k-a-Syria and the c-f-k-a-Iraq due to the Kurds, leaving the west of the c-f-k-a-Syria due to Alawite fighters willing to engage tank battalions with their teeth, and leaving the east of the c-f-k-a-Iraq to Shiite militias).
Then, ISIS will make a play towards Jordan (another non-Sunni country within reach) and Saudi Arabia (their spiritual mother as the Wahhabi/Salafist doctrine they follow was born there).
That will not elicit that much reaction - Jordan will lose some territory, and Saudi Arabia will mow down ISIS by the hundreds but the ISIS numbers will be built up by native Saudis who look at the government as infidel.
Then, what will finally happen to stop ISIS is that they will pull off the most spectacular attack on a Western city, and when that is done FINALLY the West will decide to fight. I don't mean nation building ...I don't mean hearts and minds ...I don't mean regime change ...I mean old school WW2 scorched earth.
And the West will win, and put such a tremendous emotional/racial scar on jihadi terrorism that it is very likely the same effect noted on Imperial Japan vs modern Japan will be seen! However, a lot of Americans will die for that to happen.
So, it is up to you as a people. I am not American (I'm Kenyan), but among my people there is a saying that the best time to kill a crocodile is when it is in its egg. That's because if you refuse to smash that shell underfoot, what will happen is that one day you will face an 18-foot leviathan rather than a squiggly little worm of a reptile.
If the West doesn't kill ISIS now, it will have to kill ISIS when it is a global amalgamated jihadi entity that just pulled off a major attack on a Western city ...but either case the West will have to kill ISIS. The question is when they will decide to do so, and to me it appears that the decision made is 'later.'
ISIS is like Baron Frankenstein’s monster. They will get out of the lab. Both the US and Israelis are going to rue this.
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