Posted on 05/07/2015 8:42:53 AM PDT by SoConPubbie
Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker has hit a bump in the presidential race as new candidates have crowded the field, and his national poll numbers have faltered.
He was seen as an early favorite to win the Iowa caucuses after taking the race by storm with a well-received speech in January at GOP Rep. Steve King’s Iowa Freedom Summit.
Since then, some air has come out of the Walker balloon.
A Quinnipiac University poll released on Wednesday still shows him with a big lead in the Hawkeye State, with 21 percent support. He leads Rubio, the next closest candidate, by 8 percentage points.
But Walker’s support has fallen in Iowa. In a Quinnipiac poll from February, Walker had taken 25 percent support and led the next closest candidate by 12 percentage points.
Nationally, Walker’s support peaked at 17.3 percent on April 1 and dropped to 12.3 percent on Wednesday, according to the
RealClearPolitics average of polls.
He’s been overtaken by two candidates seeking to appeal to establishment-minded Republicans.
Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush now leads the field at 15.5 percent support, followed by Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 14.3 percent.
GOP pollsters say Walker, who has not formally entered the race, excited Republicans earlier this year with his visit to Iowa. But they argue his support in polls could be soft.
“Walker had that speech that was very well received, and people wanted to hear
more, but these are people who are just leaning in his direction right now,” said GOP pollster David Winston. “The challenge is going to be in getting these people to commit.”
A source close to the Walker campaign argued that the Wisconsin governor has shown he has “staying power” in Iowa. The source said Walker had maintained relatively steady support and that he had weathered the barrage of presidential announcements by Sen. Ted Cruz (Texas), Rubio and Paul, all of whom got a boost from their campaign launches.
Still, it is clear Walker faces a challenge in the state, where Rubio and Cruz have made considerable gains on him.
Former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee’s entrance into the race on Tuesday is a new case of bad news for the Wisconsin governor. Huckabee won Iowa in 2008 and will compete with Walker, Cruz and retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson for social conservative votes.
Some Republicans in the state believe Walker’s base of support among social conservatives in the state is soft and driven largely by the buzz he’s generated as an exciting new face for the party — something that can vanish as quickly as it arrived.
Huckabee, they say, has far more durable support among the socially conservative base that propelled him to victory in 2008.
“Walker’s high numbers indicate the level of interest that there is in him in Iowa right now,” said former Iowa Republican Party political director Craig Robinson. “Huckabee’s numbers are made up of hardcore supporters that he can build off of and grow.”
Cruz, meanwhile, has planted himself in the state and will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Huckabee and former Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) as the GOP insurgent that the base sends to victory.
Huckabee and Cruz both launched their campaigns with explicit appeals to social conservatives and evangelicals, who make up an estimated 40 percent of Iowa GOP caucus-goers.
Political watchers in Iowa say Walker needs to make a similarly bold play if he hopes to make the most of his successful early run in the polls.
“Walker needs to come here and seize that faith-based coalition of voters, or else Huckabee is going to walk away with them,” said Steffen Schmidt, a professor of political science at Iowa State University.
Walker also has national considerations, and many believe he could unite grassroots conservatives with the GOP establishment in a way Huckabee, Cruz and Sen. Rand Paul (Ky.), another presidential contender, cannot.
In terms of winning support from the GOP establishment, Bush and Rubio are Walker’s two biggest threats.
The possibility that the Wisconsin Republican could appeal to both wings of the Republican Party is what makes him a formidable candidate. But it’s a balancing act he’s struggled with in the early going.
He has been criticized for changing positions on ethanol subsidies and immigration, for comparing Wisconsin union demonstrators to the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria, and for flubbing questions on evolution and the president’s patriotism.
“He’s a tweener, and it’s great to have that broad appeal,” said Robinson. “But people also thought [former Minnesota Gov. Tim] Pawlenty could manage that, and the problem is, if you’re not enough of one thing, you’re stuck in the middle and could see your appeal fade as people gravitate towards their more natural home.”
Still, Walker’s spike in the polls has been dramatic and has endured for months. Nobody expected he or any of the candidates would go wire-to-wire in such a dense field, and these kinds of surges and pullbacks are typical, especially in the early stages of a campaign cycle.
“Some people have better starting points than others, but they all face the same challenge,” Winston said. “Turning that starting point into a majority coalition.”
Nonsense. He was one of the best candidates Republicans could field.
All these attacks on conservatives like Walker only help Jeb Bush and are totally unacceptable. It's the same insanity that gave us Romney at the nominee in 2012.
Add candidates to the mix and the votes have to come from somewhere.
There is no reason why the wouldn't come out for Walker.
“Cruz is the best choice.”
I agree. I liked Carson but my fear is the same that has happened to Powell and Rice. In the end, they are black first which means Democrats.
Winners of debates aren't always winners of debates.
I’ll not discount Walker’s three time successful ground team who has fought two elections against nationally organized opponents. I think he’ll carry both Iowa and New Hampshire.
Nope.
There are past caveats on gay marriage that would come back to haunt Walker. In June of 2014, when Wisconsin’s ban on gay marriage was found to be unconstitutional, Walker said then and there that his own opinion on the issue didn’t matter. Then there seemed to be some caveats on this and some back peddling.
Wisconsin State Journal
June 13, 2014
“Scott Walker: My Views on Same Sex marriage Don’t Matter”
It is online. Google it.
Larry Sabato chimed in in that article and basically said that Walker is trying to avoid anything to do with talking about same-sex marriage. IOW, he is not as strong on social conservatism and would not have the support of social conservatives and Evangelicals as Cruz would.
Cruz is just as strong on fiscal and military issues as Walker, though.
Walker then seemed to take the attitude of oh well, the courts have decided, let it go... Then came the strong support for traditional marriage!!!!!!!
We will have a repeat of 2012 aka Romney unless Cruz is at the top of the ticket and Walker or someone else as good as Walker is in the VP slot.
Do America a favor, Scott, and hold off another four or eight years, wouldja?
Amen.
Quinnipiac = Clinton’s pollsters.
Cruz will take Iowa. He has much more support among social conservatives and evangelicals than Walker and is just as strong on national defense and fiscal conservatism as Walker and will beat out Huckabee there on fiscal conservatism.
Bush, Rand Paul and Walker will divvy up New Hampshire.
Cruz and Walker will be neck and neck in South Carolina.
Bush will win Florida.
Just my projections... Nothing more...
Thank you.
Read post #28 that I posted...
Bump.
Cruz to victory.
Why do you think that would cause Christians to stay home? Walker has a near perfect pro-life record and I'm sure he would pledge to put judges on SCOTUS that will overturn Roe and allow states to define what marriage is.
Walker has far more credibility as a reformer and getting things done because he has been a governor than Cruz does, which makes him a stronger general election candidate. It's always been easier for governors in Presidential elections than Senators.
Do us a favor and shut up and stop attacking conservative candidates. That idiocy gave us Romney in 2012 and, thus, a second term of Obama.
The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result.
Cruz is the best choice. Out of all the presidential candidates Cruz is more fiscally conservative than Bush or Huckabee.He is stronger on national defense than Rand Paul.
And he beats out Walker when it comes to support among evangelicals and social conservatives.
Cruz alone has all three legs of the conservative stool (that Reagan spoke of) “down pat.”
But I'm not sure that very many voters think this way. Most people find their favorite via some mysterious process, not a checklist approach.
An interesting poll I saw was "would you consider voting for" which Rubio won, that is he was acceptable to the most people.
Thinking about my own process it is more a process of elimination, discarding candidates from the bottom that are unacceptable for some reason.
Rubio?? Bush??? You gotta be kidding me.
I prefer Walker to Cruz, but would happily vote for Cruz.
In fact, a Walker presidency of eight years would be ideally followed by Cruz’ eight-year presidency.
I notice that FNC is interviewing all those ‘no chance in hell’ candidates.
I like the Kelly file but when she interviews them I switch the channel.
I like Cavuto but he interviewed Trump asking him when he would ‘decide’ and what he would do as POTUS, and I had to gag.
Trump is a super-rich circus clown.
Walker is still a Chamber of Commerce guy; a GOPe sleeper.
Cruz or Lose.
.
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