Posted on 04/24/2015 4:58:34 AM PDT by UKrepublican
NIGEL FARAGE'S hopes of becoming an MP have been given a massive boost with an opinion poll showing the Ukip leader has a commanding nine-point lead in South Thanet.
Research privately commissioned by the anti-Brussels party revealed he has opened up a significant gap ahead of Tory candidate Craig Mackinlay in race to win the Kent seat on May 7.
Figures also show that Mr Farage has met more voters over the past month than his Labour and Tory rivals put together.
Raising a pint of bitter to celebrate St George’s Day in the constituency today, Mr Farage said: “There is a buzz and momentum about the Ukip campaign with two weeks to go.”
He insisted the findings demolish claims that he has been barely visible in the constituency and is heading for defeat.
The poll of over 1,000 voters in South Thanet put Mr Farage on an expected vote share of 39 per cent at the general election.
The Tories were on 30 per net and Labour candidate Will Scobie was lagging behind on 26 per cent.
Polling firm Survation carried out the survey, which was funded by Ukip donor Alan Bown.
The findings contrast starkly with a ComRes poll last month that gave the Tories a one-point lead over Ukip in South Thanet.
It also showed that more than 18 per cent of voters in South Thanet have met Mr Farage over the past month.
The figure compared with 8 per cent who have met the Labour candidate and 7 per cent for the Tory candidate.
And nearly a third (31 per cent) of voters in South Thanet say they have had a knock on the door from Ukip activists over the past month compared with 13 per cent for the Tories and 15 per cent for Labour.
A Ukip source said: “This shows up the lies from the other parties that Nigel is never in the constituency.
“Our support has been really galvanised over recent weeks. We have had coachloads of members and supporters coming down to deliver leaflets and knock on doors."
Mr Farage marked St George’s Day by drinking with Army veterans at the Northwood Club in Ramsgate in the constituency.
He said: “We’re nicking a bit of vote from everybody. We’ve clearly hurt Labour more than we’ve hurt anybody else.
“The thing that really strikes me about these figures is the number of non-voters, the people who did not engage in 2010, who have said they are going to vote Ukip. I think that is really exciting.
“Nearly a quarter of our voters didn’t vote in 2010. Some have not voted in 20 years, some have never voted in their entire lives.
“I get criticism every day - they say ‘Nigel’s not here enough, is he?’ You know, I don’t actually do everything in the full glare of cameras, there is something called hard work, knocking on doors and meeting people and I’ve done loads of it.
“The number of voters who say they have actually met me is more than the Labour and Conservative figures combined.
“We have taken a big lead here.
“And this whole narrative here - Ukip’ fading away, it’s not doing any good, it ain’t going to take any seats; actually we take the very opposite view.”
He added: “In the last 72 hours we’ve become very excited about how we are doing in some of our target seats.
“I think we are the party in this campaign now with the optimism - which I think Mr Cameron appears to be lacking ever so slightly - and the energy and we are pretty bullish with two weeks ago.
“I’ve said all along we are confident but not complacent, but I now feel much more confident.
“If you give me evens, I’ll have ten grand with you!
“The one dilemma for Ukip is the very large number of people who are not in the habit of voting. Making sure they actually turn up, that’s our challenge for us in the next couple of weeks.”
He also attacked the “political class” for “sneering” at St George’s Day and England flags.
After stepping behind the social club bar to pull himself a pint of John Smith’s, the Ukip leader said: “St George’s Day, we shouldn’t be ashamed of that.
“St George’s Day is something our political classes look down upon, they sneer at it.
“I think we should be proud to be English. We should not be ashamed of the St George’s Flag, we should not be ashamed of St George’s Day, we should make it a national holiday.”
He accused other parties of “appeasing” the “terror of Scottish nationalists.”
“We’ve just about had enough of that. We want a fair deal for the English.”
Earlier, Ukip held a press conference in London to highlight its plan - revealed last month by the Daily Express - for a new Bank Holiday in England to mark St George’s Day - April 23 - with another in Wales for its March 1 St David’s Day, to mirror Scotland’s and Ireland’s widely celebrate St Andrew’s and St Patrick’s Days.
Ukip culture spokesman Peter Whittle said St George’s Day would be an “inclusive opportunity” for people in England to celebrate their common values.
“A country is not just its economy and its identity cannot just be read on a balance sheet. We believe in our hearts and our minds that this is a great country to be proud of and part of,” said Mr Whittle.
There ya go. People can say what they want about TV ads and microtargeting for voters and whatever else, but at the end of the day, the candidate who makes the effort to actually *connect* with voters is the one they will prefer.
Projections show currently UKIP will keep at least 1, but some say 2 of their current 2 seats.....the likelihood is that is will be much more and the pollsters are going to look very silly as they have in the past.
Sample is the key - if you base a sample on support of the 2010 election, where the Lib Dems were polling far higher and the UKIP vote was just 3% - since then, they have won the European election with 27% of the national vote and won two of three of the last by elections - the outcome of this will obviously point to a far smaller UKIP vote.
The reality is - it will be much higher.
Actually a 9% win coming from next to nothing is remarkable - speaking of third parties - there is actually a reasonable chance the leader of the Liberal Democrats (coalition partners with the Tories) will lose his seat in Sheffield.
Seems like the media is doing its best to suppress UKIP turnout
They have, it has been an onslaught but I think it is failing in its objectives, at least in the long term. UKIP continues to rise, the rest continue to snide at them, and not listen to large parts of the country. It’s a strange time in UK politics, I think it is quite likely we will have to vote again in the next couple of years.
Jolly good! I can’t wait to hear him at Question Time.
NICE.
UKIP has helped push a political consensus on reducing immigration--something that this country has yet to do. The free movement of labor within the EU complicates matters, but there have been reductions of non-EU immigration. It was hilarious to hear Miliband attacking Cameron for not meeting the immigration reduction targets. Who would have ever imagined a Labour leader issuing such a charge? Miliband admitted that Labour made a mistake on the immigration issue. British jobs for British workers resonates with the voters. Scott Walker is following suit linking immigration with job losses and depressed wages. It is a winner politically and scares the Hell out of the political class.
I watched the debates between Farage and Nick Clegg, which Farage won hands down. Clegg made a major mistake participating in them. The Liberal Democrats will be the biggest losers this election cycle.
I know, Pelosi sits in one of the safest Democrat seats in the country while there is no such thing as a safe UKIP seat, but my point is that a year ago Farage’s goal was to get himself elected PM, not to eke out a victory in his own district and lead a caucus of a measly six members. Dick Gephardt’s CD wasn’t safe for Democrats in 1998 or 2000, yet no one would have run a headline saying “Gephardt on Target to Win” if there was a poll showing Gephardt up by 9% but with Republicans poised to keep their House majorities.
Thanks!
Mmm...I hope so, but the problem with surveys like this, particularly ones you commission yourself, is that there is always a built-in bias to the answers that you want to hear.
This is why you hear politicians who are challenged on certain issues sometimes replying with “well the feedback I’m getting on the doorstep doesn’t say that at all”. They’re telling the truth, but it is a fundamental fact of Human psychology that there is a big difference between what people SAY they believe, and what they ACTUALLY will do.
Don’t get me wrong - I think Farage will win Thanet South, but I think its going to be quite close. The problem in getting that elusive breakthrough is that all too much of the voting decisions in the UK (and probably everywhere else as well) is essentially tribal in nature, and that’s very difficult to break down.
I was talking with Alan Piper (UKIP parliamentary candidate for Westmorland and Lonsdale) and he summed it up very well. Getting votes for UKIP (and probably any newer political party actually) is a bit like trying to persuade people to give up smoking. They want change, and they know its good for them, and they know its the right thing to do, but when the chips are down so many folk just can’t bring themselves to break the habit of a lifetime.
The odds are we are going to have a "hung" parliament on May 8th (one where no party, or combination of party's, has an overal majority). That means a weak minority government reliant on constant wheeler-dealing behind the scenes to get any meaningful legislation passed, OR - another election.
It was never a target for Farage to become PM this year, that was never going to happen. Nobody even talked of it.
On FR they did. And it was used as a model for a new third party in the U.S. to usurp the GOP.
I think that must have been an extreme minority even on FR.
Considering they will go from 3 to as high as 20% this time around in just 5 years - that is impressive growth of a political party, model or no model.
I saw a forecasting model from 538 this weekend, and it predicted UKIP holding only one seat in the House of Commons after this election. I hope it’s wrrong.
I’m pretty confident it will be wrong. It will be 5-10 in my opinion. Probably closer to 5, but UKIP will finish second in as many as 100 seats - a massive stepping stone for the next election.
Well, I hope you’re correct about UKIP’s number of first-place finishes, but in a first-past-the-post system “second place” is first loser. And I hope that UKIP’s second-place finishes don’t come mostly in districts where last time the Tories beat Labour but Labour finishes first this time.
Well second place is a loser of course, but it changes the dynamics for the next election.
Interestingly, a great deal of them seats are working class voters in the North in safe Labour seats.
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