I’m pretty confident it will be wrong. It will be 5-10 in my opinion. Probably closer to 5, but UKIP will finish second in as many as 100 seats - a massive stepping stone for the next election.
Well, I hope you’re correct about UKIP’s number of first-place finishes, but in a first-past-the-post system “second place” is first loser. And I hope that UKIP’s second-place finishes don’t come mostly in districts where last time the Tories beat Labour but Labour finishes first this time.