The GOP's Electoral Cliff

Newsmax ^ | 2/18 | Dick Morris

[TangledUpInBlue]

The 3.8 percent point margin by which President Obama defeated Mitt Romney in 2012 clouds the challenge the Republicans face in 2016. Unless they are able to improve their standing by 5 to 6 points in the key electoral states, they cannot win.

Romney got 206 electoral votes (carrying his closest state, North Carolina, by only 2.2 points). To add to this total, much less to bring it up to the 271 needed to win, Republicans must carry a number of states where they lost by five or more points in 2012.

[TangledUpInBlue]

I’ve met Corey Booker. He would be very dangerous. Politics aside, I came away loving the guy. Cool to chat with, personable, athletic. He is very, very dangerous.

[GeronL]

around 40% if hispanics in Texas voted Republican in the last election, including for state-wide candidates very much opposed to amnesty

[stephenjohnbanker]

Oh well....whatever it takes to screw him : )

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Is it really smart to allow those states to get a head start in determining who the next candidate will be?

It makes sense if you're a RINO.

[VRW Conspirator]

They reignite the young black vote with someone like Corey Booker as VP.

I said it before the 2012 election. Romney needed to select Allen West as his VP choice...but, noooooooooo.

[schaef21]

This means nothing if Hillary is the candidate. Forget all of those polls.... it’s all name recognition at this point.

People are sick of her.... she won’t wear well during an extended campaign and the Dems know it. That’s why we haven’t seen her lately, they are keeping her out of the limelight.

[Wallace T.]

At one time, the Republicans had a majority of black voters, in the era of segregation and restrictions on black voting rights in the Southern states. Franklin Roosevelt and machine politicians in the Northern cities moved a portion of the black vote into the Democrat column in the 1920s and 1930s. However, when, under Kennedy and Johnson, the Democrats turned into advocates of civil rights while the Republicans, notably the Goldwater wing of the party, rejected Federal civil rights legislation and opposed expanded welfare programs, black voters mostly abandoned the party of Lincoln. The black middle class benefited from affirmative action; the black underclass benefited from entitlement programs.

[KC_Conspirator]

People get mad at me here saying that I don’t believe I will see another Republican president elected in my lifetime. Its only because I believe the math does not add up during presidential years; years full of stupid low information voters come out and vote for democrats who cause their own demise is too much to make up. Plus all the fraud...

[nascarnation]

What troubles me most is that the two key tossup states (FL and OH) both have R governors and Sec of State, yet appear to be hotbeds of voter fraud.

The Soros SoS Project failed, yet the results seem the same.

[magellan]

There could be more states in play. Obama won Colorado with only 51% of the vote. In the Colorado U.S. Senate election, Cory Gardner won statewide election against an incumbent Democrat, Mark Udall. The incumbent Democrat governor won reelection with only 49% of the vote. In the Iowa U.S. Senate race, Republican Joni Ernst won, and in the Iowa governor’s race, the incumbent Republican won with 59% of the vote. In Nevada, the incumbent Republican governor won with over 70% of the vote. I think Nevada and Iowa are turning Red.

Republicans won statewide elections for governor in Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Michigan, and Massachusetts. The Republican was reelected as governor of New Mexico with 57% of the vote. I don’t think this means a Republican presidential candidate will carry these states, but it does show how an energized Republican electorate can make things challenging in Blue States.

[rwfromkansas]

I lived in West Texas, and most of the Hispanics I met were Republican. That’s my point precisely.

[DoodleDawg]

At one time, the Republicans had a majority of black voters, in the era of segregation and restrictions on black voting rights in the Southern states...

Yeah, ninety years ago. This is today.

[nascarnation]

Perfect VP for Hillary.
And you can bet the community organizers will be out in force “wink-winking” about Hillary’s failing health.

[Disambiguator]

Don’t forget tho that most, possibly close to all, of those 4 million Conservaltive voters didn’t go to the polls because the effort to turn them out (a big voter-targeting software system named “Orca”) crashed on election day, without any real backup. There were good stories on that, as well as the Dem’s targeting/turnout systems (Narwal/Catalist) on both Breitbart and PJMedia a last year. I’ll see if I can find them. They were really fascinating insights into how voters are targeted on almost industrial level.

There's no "almost" about it. This was laser-guided-bomb GOTV going on.

[factoryrat]

Just like 2012, the elite will boil the election down to slightly left vs. slightly right. Elections are bought and sold in the US now, it's nothing more than a money game, and the one who buys the most votes, wins. The elite have already settled on jeb and hillary, and barring one of them dropping dead between now and election day, one of them will be chosen to be president, not by the people, but bu those who bought their presidency.

[2nd Amendment]

I don’t accept nothing from this toe-sucking freak. Throw Karl Rove in there, too. We should run a true conservative candidate that doesn’t have to consult “focus groups” to see what he (or she) believes and run like Ronald Reagan. If this country doesn’t have the guts to elect a patriot and a conservative, only perdition awaits it, anyhow!

[Wallace T.]

Agreed. The water has long since flowed over the dam. LBJ supposedly said, after the 1964 Civil Rights Act was passed, that he would have the African-Americans (the quote uses the N-word) voting Democrat for 200 years. If those were his words, he was prophetic.

[nascarnation]

But is a robocall or junk email really enough to turn out a turned off Republican?

(I can see where an Obamaphone message to go out and protect your EBT/Section 8/Medicaid/Earned Income Credit/etc might be effective)

[TangledUpInBlue]

I think this is true and a good point. I also think she can be baited into saying stupid things - ala - “what difference does it make”

[GeronL]

It’s a tall order and based on this - at least at first blush, makes it appear that Walker would have a good chance.

based on what?

He fought the unions.... don't you think there will be other issues in a national election campaign?