Posted on 01/28/2015 6:14:36 AM PST by blam
Tyler Durden - Crispin Odey
January 28, 2015
"I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.
Odey Asset Management (report for Dec 2014)
The themes I have been outlining since the second quarter of 2014 are now establishing themselves:
* A faltering Chinese economy with growth ultimately slowing down to 3%.
* A hard landing for those countries plugged into China’s growth - especially Australia, South Africa and Brazil.
* A fall in commodity prices bringing with it pain to those heavily exposed. For oil this is the Middle East, Venezuela, Argentina, mid-west USA, Canada, Norway and Scotland.
No one forecast how fast and how far those commodity markets would fall. However, the same people who singly failed to see this coming are the first to say that the benefits of falling prices will outweigh the costs. My problem with such a hopeful outcome is that, in my experience, those that lose out from a fall in their income are quicker to adjust than those that benefit. In that intertemporal space lurks a recession.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Classic Hee Haw (I'll bet you thought I didn't know that). I've got quite a few classic Hee Haw DVD's. No one in my household seems to appreciate them except me. On the other hand, I never could get the humor in "Friends".
Nope...didn't lose anything, other than to inflation......not profiting is hardly the same as losing.
We took it in the a** on round one, and that was sufficient. "Fool me once", and all that other stuff.
Japan is already in recession, I believe Europe is very close. We saw yesterday the multinationals take a hit. Where is the growth going to come from? China? I think not.
Anyone who sat out the last six years on the doomers’ screeds lost heavily.
Hey I almost resemble that remark!
So far the markets are saying “so what”? If the end of QE didn’t tank the markets why will any other indicator? Look at the weekly chart for the DOW and it is still above long term support. What we have seen so far can be chalked up to a normal correction.
I am not saying this because I am advocating getting into the market. I’m just trying to assess reality and am thinking I need to reject all my former bias. Formerly I rejected momentum investing and believed in looking for value. You know, dumb things like PE ratios. But apparently I was wrong. PE ratios mean squat. There is some other dynamic I just don’t get moving these markets higher.
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