Dr Copper
Posted on 01/28/2015 6:14:36 AM PST by blam
Tyler Durden - Crispin Odey
January 28, 2015
"I think equity markets will get devastated," warns famed $12bn AUM hedge fund manager Crispin Odey in his latest letter to investors. Having been one of the biggest bulls of this particular central bank artificial-bull cycle, his dramatic bearish tilt (as we discussed what he thinks are the biggest risks underpriced by the market previously), is notable. Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be "remembered in a hundred years," adding that the "bearish opportunity" to short stocks looks as great as it was in 2007-2009.
Odey Asset Management (report for Dec 2014)
The themes I have been outlining since the second quarter of 2014 are now establishing themselves:
* A faltering Chinese economy with growth ultimately slowing down to 3%.
* A hard landing for those countries plugged into China’s growth - especially Australia, South Africa and Brazil.
* A fall in commodity prices bringing with it pain to those heavily exposed. For oil this is the Middle East, Venezuela, Argentina, mid-west USA, Canada, Norway and Scotland.
No one forecast how fast and how far those commodity markets would fall. However, the same people who singly failed to see this coming are the first to say that the benefits of falling prices will outweigh the costs. My problem with such a hopeful outcome is that, in my experience, those that lose out from a fall in their income are quicker to adjust than those that benefit. In that intertemporal space lurks a recession.
(snip)
(Excerpt) Read more at zerohedge.com ...
Dr Copper
> Finally, Odey fears major economies are entering a recession that will be “remembered in a hundred years
People used to call those “depressions” though Obama calls them “happy times” with 5 % unemployment
* The Fed is expected to signal it remains on track to begin raising interest rates later this year, as it shows confidence that low inflation and rising risks from abroad have yet to derail the U.S. economic recovery.
* Nasdaq futures rallied more than 1 percent powered by a 9 percent advance in Apple shares . Apple's quarterly results smashed Wall Street expectations with record sales of big-screen iPhones in the holiday shopping season, which helped the company post the largest profit in corporate history.
* Yahoo gained 6.7 percent after it unveiled plans to spin off its 15 percent stake in Alibaba Group Holding , responding to pressure to hand over to shareholders its e-commerce investment valued at roughly $40 billion.
* Boeing added 4.1 percent premarket after posting its earnings results and outlook.
* U.S. Steel Corp's shares added 8.4 percent the day after its profit beat expectations. Though the company warned that low oil prices and the strong U.S. dollar could negatively impact its business in 2015, it said the potential for higher consumer spending could help lift demand.
Anyone who sat out the last six years on the doomers’ screeds lost heavily.
Yes.... they suffered greatly. For most people fear drives their investing.
Indeed—I have remained almost fully invested on the belief that the Wall Street recipients of federal largesse (QE ad infinitum) will not allow the markets to tank on Obama’s watch. After that, though, Katy bar the door.
That is Zero Hedge's modus operandi: doom and gloom. Here's a chart that shows the Dow is about to collapse, here's a graph that shows Europe is about to implode.
I suppose that eventually ZH will get something right. But there's batting 0.00 so far.
Hmmm, copper’s down - buy more copper (and brass, and lead....)
I didn’t sit out the last 6 years but I did divest at 16,500. I also divested before the last crash. And I sleep well earning a measly 3 points on my money while the Wall Street Roulette wheel spins under the power of the Fed. So, I’m happy your happy.
Sounds like the S&P will make new highs soon with idiots like this screaming for the sky to fall.
The Fed tried to take recessions out of the equation. But as hard as they try recessions will still happen. But that doesn't mean last a hundred years!
The Feds cause recessions in exactly the way they seek to prevent recessions. Evil.
Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Deep, dark depression, excessive misery
If it weren’t for bad luck, I’d have no luck at all
Gloom, despair, and agony on me
Does that mean the scrappers will put back the wiring they stole in my barn?
There _is_ coming, more than a correction. It will be a collapse.
All will have to chose where their _truth_ comes from. For most it is the traditions of men or their own imaginations.
Ha....this forum has so doom and gloom over the past couple of years I just stay positive to bother the grumps.
I think with cheap gas all the economies are going to take off and you’re going to a very prosperous and creative era. Good time to be alive!
I agree. I've noticed how a lot of doom and gloom articles come out just before a big rise in the DOW. This is how the big boys get the sheeple to sell low and the wrong time.
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