Mike Huckabee Is a Poison Pill for Conservatives

The American Conservative ^ | January 5, 2015 | James Antle III

[SoConPubbie]

Mike Huckabee is going to put down his bass and walk away from his lucrative Fox News show to at least contemplate a run for the presidency.

The former Arkansas governor should be taken seriously, even if he faces an uphill battle to win the Republican nomination against opponents with superior fundraising and organization.

Huckabee already exceeded expectations in his first presidential campaign back in 2008. He started as a lower-tiered candidate while pro-choice, pro-civil unions Rudy Giuliani led in all the national polls—which might tell you something about the reliability of name ID-based early polling.

Giuliani didn’t win a single primary, while Huckabee carried eight states, including the first-in-the-nation Iowa caucuses. And that was before the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision gave rise to the super PACs that benefited Rick Santorum last time around.

Today Huckabee can probably raise money earlier on his own because he will start out polling in the top tier in Iowa, some Southern states, and perhaps nationally. He could also benefit from some socially conservative super PACs.

The conventional wisdom seems to be that the religious right has gone away since a lot of its national organizational muscle has atrophied. But evangelicals remain thick on the ground in Republican primaries, and some of their state-based political organizations are still forces to be reckoned with. In some cases, those organizations include the state Republican Party apparatus.

Huckabee’s 2008 rise was fueled by evangelicals craving authenticity. There was a strong desire among Republican primary voters for a conservative alternative to John McCain. Fred Thompson, the most promising carrier of that mantle, did not seem to want it enough. Mitt Romney wanted it too much, running for president on a Reaganite fusionist platform after having governed Massachusetts as a more moderate Republican in the tradition of his late father.

With Thompson seemingly snoozing through the early states and Romney distrusted by the party’s largest single voting bloc, Huckabee had a natural opening. But the very conditions that launched him into the top tier kept him from being able to truly compete with McCain. His support was too limited to evangelicals. A successful conservative candidate cannot have the kind of steep drop-off from Iowa to New Hampshire that Huckabee, and subsequently Santorum, experienced.

Huckabee also kept anybody else from being able to go toe to toe with McCain. He essentially knocked Thompson, who finished third in the Huckabee states of Iowa and South Carolina, out of the race, and then split the conservative vote with Romney. The two ex-governors became regional candidates. Huckabee’s stronghold was the South, while Romney did better in the Mountain States.

Perhaps Huckabee can top his 2008 showing. If Jeb Bush runs but Chris Christie proves more durable than Giuliani, Huckabee may be positioned to win more states with 25 to 30 percent of the vote. That probably wouldn’t suffice for the nomination by itself, but it could buy him more time to broaden his base.

The likelier scenario is that if Huckabee is once again the evangelical candidate, he will prevent other conservatives with non-evangelical appeal—and probably more money and better organizations—from gaining steam. This is especially true in Iowa, where evangelicals have in the past been willing to support socially conservative candidates who support a restrained foreign policy, most notably Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul.

Keeping Huckabee from consolidating the evangelical vote will be important for some of the other candidates. If Jeb Bush follows his brother’s lead, he will marry the evangelical vote to the establishment, making it difficult for any movement conservative challenge to get off the ground.

True, Dubya was an evangelical himself, albeit one who still belonged to a mainline Protestant church, while Jeb is Catholic. But that’s not necessarily an obstacle. Buchanan and Santorum have proven that evangelicals will support socially conservative Catholics. Several rungs down the ladder, Catholic Alan Keyes did much better among evangelicals than did their coreligionist Gary Bauer.

Rand Paul, Marco Rubio, Scott Walker, Bobby Jindal or John Kasich, to name just a few possibilities, would all benefit from a split evangelical vote, with each getting their slice. Ted Cruz may even try to dethrone Huckabee as the top evangelical vote-getter, as Santorum will likely need to do to even keep pace with his 2012 performance.

American politics has become a volatile business, so anything can happen. But the smart money says either Huckabee goes nowhere in 2016 or conservatives do.

W. James Antle III is editor of the Daily Caller News Foundation and author of Devouring Freedom: Can Big Government Ever Be Stopped?

[SoConPubbie]

	"If we must have an enemy at the head of Government, let it be one whom we can oppose, and for whom we are not responsible, who will not involve our party in the disgrace of his foolish and bad measures." - Alexander Hamilton "We don't intend to turn the Republican Party over to the traitors in the battle just ended. We will have no more of those candidates who are pledged to the same goals as our opposition and who seek our support. Turning the Party over to the so-called moderates wouldn’t make any sense at all." -- President Ronald Reagan "A thing moderately good is not so good as it ought to be. Moderation in temper is always a virtue; but moderation in principle is always a vice." - Thomas Paine 1792 "It does not take a majority to prevail, but rather an irate, tireless minority, keen on setting brushfires of freedom in the minds of men." - Samuel Adams "If ye love wealth better than liberty, the tranquility of servitude better than the animating contest of freedom, go home from us in peace. We ask not your counsels or your arms. Crouch down and lick the hands which feed you. May your chains set lightly upon you, and may posterity forget that you were our countrymen." - Samuel Adams

[Opinionated Blowhard]

Huckabee’s 2008 rise was fueled by evangelicals craving authenticity.

Perhaps some evangelicals were fooled by Nanny Huckabee in 2008 because he used to be a minister, but anyone fooled by this Christian Socialist today is willfully blind. I am sure there are some low information types who will still think of him as the "evangelical" candidate because the media tells them to, but anyone with half a brain will see this fool for what he is -- an amnesty-loving, soft-on-crime nanny-state socialist with a Jimmy Carter foreign policy.

[7thson]

Huckabphony will draw and spilt conservative votes and give the nomination to JEB Bush. That is his only purpose.

[Catsrus]

Why is it that every time I hear the name, Huckabee, I think of the cartoon character, Huckleberry Hound?

[arthurus]

(Romney) after having governed Massachusetts as a more moderate Republican in the tradition of his late father.

A publication that equates "left wing statist" with "moderate" is not a conservative publication whatever might be its name.

[jpl]

I still haven’t forgotten how that monster that Huckabee pardoned went on to execute those cops in cold blood.

[yldstrk]

He may be a poison pill for Jeb Bush............

[Dr. Sivana]

Now is the time to remind the public of Huckabee’s “Willie Horton”. Also, ask him if there is anything wrong in principle with Mrs. Obama’s school lunch regulations, which are in line with things that Huckabee has been promoting all along, but are despised by the rank and file. (Follow up with pro-life credentials of candidate of your choice in order to show that you don’t need Huck to have a pro-life candidate. That was harder in 2008 when I voted for him.)

[skeeter]

The likelier scenario is that if Huckabee is once again the evangelical candidate, he will prevent other conservatives with non-evangelical appeal—and probably more money and better organizations—from gaining steam.

Huck and the GOP know it.

I wonder whats in it for him.

[St_Thomas_Aquinas]

Huckabphony will draw and spilt conservative votes and give the nomination to JEB Bush. That is his only purpose.

Maybe a conservative billionaire should bankroll a bunch of RINO presidential candidates...

[Theodore R.]

Fred Thompson, the most promising carrier of that mantle, did not seem to want it enough.

An underwhelming statement

[Theodore R.]

but anyone fooled by this Christian Socialist today is willfully blind

In Republican primaries, the blind follow the blind, and they both fall into the ditch.

[Mr. K]

Fred Thompson is like most actors- they look and sound good when the words are written for them- but in real life they are not as presidential as they seem.

Dick Morris dismissed him with a wave of his hand WAY early in the campaign and said that we would see he was right, and boy was he.

Thompson may be a good guy, but he was not president-level material

[Theodore R.]

That’s what it’s all about: nominating finally a “native Texan” called “Jebbie”.

[Democrat_media]

Huckabee is the socialist from Arkansas and he is for amnesty for illegals. look up his record . this cretin is no conservative . he doesn’t have American values of small government . He loves big government. acts religious but is a false prophet.

proof huckabee is the socialist from Arkansas

http://topconservativenews.com/2007/10/conservative-huckabee/

[Slings and Arrows]

TAC was founded by Pat Buchanan.

[LucianOfSamasota]

This is especially true in Iowa, where evangelicals have in the past been willing to support socially conservative candidates who support a restrained foreign policy, most notably Pat Buchanan and Ron Paul.

Ron Paul is a SOCIAL conservative?

Several rungs down the ladder, Catholic Alan Keyes did much better among evangelicals than did their coreligionist Gary Bauer.

Maybe Keyes' MESSAGE had something to do with that?

[spetznaz]

Simple truth - the next election cycle will be exactly like the last two. There will be a wide selection of candidates, following which they will be whittled down to around 6 core candidates, then each of those 6 will spend a week as the 'leading contender' during which Conservatives will sling toxic mud and muck on each others' candidate. Once that is done, the last of the six to be 'leader of the week' will be the RINO candidate, and will take the nomination.

Even on FR you'll see FReepers form a circle and fire freely at each other. Let's just say zots will be common. Candidates that are conservative ....just not having one thing or the other ....will be eliminated because they are 'not perfect,' and then you'll be left with that one remaining candidate who is NOT AT ALL Conservative.

Then what will happen?

Well, then people will be told to hold their noses and vote for that chap, even though some weeks back they had an entire lineup of candidates far better than him.

Candidates that were 80% good enough (but not perfect) will be irradiated with endless vitriol and eventually discarded, and then all will go behind that one RINO candidate that is 80% bad.

That is exactly what will happen next time as well. Why? Because for a bunch of usually intelligent people, Conservatives generally act like infantile sots during elections.

Result? The result is that, unfortunately, the question is not WHETHER a RINO will nab the nomination, but rather WHICH RINO will nab the nomination.

It is so obvious that this African from Kenya can tell you that many moons before the election, and hopefully that will shame all of you enough that you prove me wrong. But we know that will not happen, so folks may as well start holding their noses now and preparing to vote for yet another RINO to face off against the Democrats.

I recommend using old school clothes pegs. Easier on the fingers (but unfortunately tougher on the nose).

[HMS Surprise]

When I gauge conservatives I have to assume that policy outliers emanate from a sketchy core belief system. Huckabee has gone off the reservation too many times to be considered a good bet. He’ll backslide like every RINO that has ever found the finish line.

[bert]

yep......

I call the phenomenon sanctimonious self righteousness

A narrowed field of view prevents overlooking that which really doesn’t matter and results in the primary win of the Rino candidate.

We then are subjected to the breast pounding by those that declare with bravado that they will not vote