Posted on 12/16/2014 4:17:43 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
They haven’t even been sworn in yet, but these members start off the cycle as underdogs in their quests for re-election in 2016.
Most of 2016′s initial targets are incoming Republicans, swept into office in a GOP midterm wave. They will represent districts Democrats carried with big margins in presidential election years — seats the newly minted Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján will probably want back. Only one vulnerable Democrat made this list.
What’s more, the window for either party to oust these freshman could close quickly. It’s easier to defeat an incumbent in their first re-election, before they solidify a stronghold on the seat.
(Excerpt) Read more at atr.rollcall.com ...
It would be worth studying to find out why Ohio did so well for the Democrats in 1916. A cursory glance doesn’t explain it. Statewide, James Cox won the Governorship in 1912 because of the GOP/Prog split (he got just under 42% with almost 47% going to their 2 candidates).
Dem Cox was then defeated in 1914 by Frank Willis (despite improving his performance to almost 44%) and also despite the son of President Garfield running as the Prog nominee (who got a paltry 5%, but almost enough to cost Willis).
Then the ‘16 election was another rematch between Cox and Willis, and this time Cox prevailed (winning by just 7,000 vote and .6%, 48.4-47.8%). There was no Prog candidate running that year. Cox did run behind Wilson, though.
Curiously, it’s worth pointing out that the GOP did dreadfully in winning the Governorship in Ohio for a long period of time. From 1901 until 1940(!), not a single Republican won reelection as an incumbent (Conservative John Bricker, who should’ve become President, broke the streak). Republicans had a batch of one termers that almost all went down from 1903 onwards. It probably didn’t help matters that these were 2-year terms, but it tended to benefit the Democrats more. And they put up decent candidates generally: To wit, Warren Harding ran in 1910 and got shellacked by 11% to incumbent Dem Judson Harmon.
Had someone told Harding he’d deliver one of the biggest landslides (and the biggest Congressional landslide) for the GOP just 10 years later, he’d probably have thought they were joking. Then again, had someone told the failed VP nominee of Cox’s in 1920 he’d almost wipe out the GOP a dozen+ years later, he’d have probably had the arrogance to believe ‘em.
Here’s a presidential-election trivia question with a Chicagoland twist:
What Illinois municipality in the Chicago metro area was carried by Bush in the 1992 election but gave Hillary a bigger victory margin over Trump than did the City of Chicago in 2016?
Cicero ?
Dolton
That is correct. I guess that Mexicans didn’t move in en masse until after 1992?
Cicero, IL:
1992: Bush 41.80%, Clinton 41.07%, Perot 16.67%
2016: Clinton 83.67%, Trump 11.83%
(In 2016, Chicago voted Clinton &2.88%, Trump 12.28%)
Unbelievable.
Dton is a village, so Dave Leip’s U.S. Election Atlas includes its voting results within Thornton Township. It is entirely possible that Dolton voted for Bush in 1992 and then gave Hillary a bigger victory margin than did Chicago, but I don’t have the data to support that. I can point out, however, that Thornton Township voted Clinton 56.30%, Bush 29.79%, Perot 13.52% in 1992 and voted Clinton 86.45%, Trump 10.73% in 2016.
The answer for which I was lookind, as DJ surmised, was Cicero (see my prior post).
I think it has less to do with that than the complete collapse of the Republican Machine in Cicero around 2005 (a Hispanic Republican succeeded Betty Loren-Maltese as Mayor in 2002-05). Had the machine collapsed or was broken before then, it’s doubtful that Bush, Sr. would’ve gotten that high a vote in 1992.
I think it’s particularly true in many urban locales that you vote how the local government machine wants you to vote, and they deliver the votes accordingly. It wasn’t that Cicero was a bastion of Conservatism, but that in order to do business, you voted a certain way. When the power shifts away to the opposition, the same can apply.
With the Democrat takeover of so many of the Chicago suburbs one by one (by whatever means, either due to an racial shift or voter fraud, or both), I tend to question the legitimacy of those lopsided one-party votes. There’s no Republican opposition oversight to speak of (and what opposition there is is likely a corrupted rump or puppet of the Dems, especially with the IL Combine).
I wouldn’t trust the “final result” tallies out of Cook County as far as I could throw ‘em.
Wow, I noticed Cicero went heavily for Shinton but I hadn’t noted it was by a greater margin than Chicago, Jimminy Jillikers!
Republican (Rino?) Larry Dominick is still Town President. He beat Hispanic Republican incumbent Ramiro Gonzalez in 2005, in the first non-partisan election. He was reelected twice with ease and was not even opposed for a 4th term earlier this year.
He must be corrupt as hell. ?
As for Dolton, according to wiki it was over 80% Black in 2000 so I can’t imagine it was still White enough to vote for Bush in 1992.
He’s one for you that I researched yesterday. Now that Elliot County KY has voted GOP for President, what county now has the longest rat streak?
There are three TX counties and one NC county that I know have voted for the RAT presidential candidate since at least 1912: Brooks, Duval and Starr in TX and Northampton County in NC. I also suspect that Jim Hogg County, TX would have pulled off the feat as well had it been founded (from land taken from Brooks and Duval Counties) prior to 1913.
Other than Northampton and those three TX counties, I can’t think of any that have voted RAT in every presidential election since 1912. Do you have access to pre-1912 presidential-election numbers for TX and NC counties?
I don’t have any exact numbers if Leip or Ourcampaigns doesn’t have them but via Wikipedia (they use it as a source) a while back I found an odd and wonderful source that has colored (and shaded by %) county maps with the winners going back to freaking 1828! And the GOP is blue.
http://geoelections.free.fr/USA/elec_comtes/1828.htm
It’s French, don’t ask me what *their* sources are. You have to pick out the counties by sight.
Anyway you named all the counties in the conversation, the “winner” is Starr county TX, it last went GOP in 1892. It was “close” in 1972, Nixon almost got 42%. Next highest GOP % that Leip has is just 27% in 1912. Yuck!
Brooks (established in 1911 from part of Starr) has never gone Republican since it’s been on it’s own, 1912-2016. Jim Hogg (established in 1913 from part of Brooks and Duval) likewise has only gone rat, 1916-2016. I am unaware of any other extant counties that have never voted GOP for President other than Menominee County WI, created in 1959 (but somehow they weren’t counted desperately in the 1960 election, weird) from an Indian reservation.
Duval TX went for TR in 1904. Webb TX was last GOP in 1912. South Texas blows! I don’t know why but I figured it would have been a little more GOP friendly back in the late 19th/Early 20th.
Northampton NC last went GOP in 1896 (dem in ‘92). One of 2 stinky McGovern counties in NC. The other is Orange, last GOP in 1928.
There are a few other stinkers in the South with only a single GOP win in the 20th Century. Macon County Alabama for example, only Republican in 1956 (48%-46%), dixiecrat in ‘48. I imagine there are a few that only went GOP in 1972.
Trump broke a lot of long county rat streaks besides Elliot, for our purposes this includes everything that’s went rat at least since 1972. Gray’s Harbor WA, last R in 1928. Pacific WA, last R in 1952. Dubuque IA, last in ‘56. Itasca MN, last R in 1928. Mower MN, last R in 1960. Swift MN, last in ‘52.
Came tantalizing close to a few others in the upper Midwest. Portage WI (within 4), last R in ‘56. He was within 2 points in Carlton MN (13.5% Finnish!) which was last R in ‘28. Within 3 in Lake MN, last R in 1932 when it was the only county in the state to vote for Hoover, by plurality because of the huge 19% vote for the Socialist candidate (Debs had carried the countyin 1912!), it wasn’t Hoover’s best county by %.
I wonder what’s wrong with Cook MN, it used to be the most GOP of the cluster up there in NE Minn, Bush carried it by plurality (46%) in 2000, he got 45% in ‘04 and lost by 7 points to Kerry. Last 3 elections heavily rat. Trump’s share dropped to 34%, down from almost 37% for Romney. It’s trending in stark contrast to every nearby county on both sides of the state line.
Those 3 bastards in NW Wisconsin where dented but still stand strong. Douglas (Trump within 8) last went R in ‘28. Bayfield (within 9) in ‘72. Ashland (within 12) in 1956.
Shillery of course broke Orange County CA, last D in 1936. I don’t know of any other streaks she broke, there might be couple more.
Assuming you can believe any of those counties in California reported factually. I'd bet you a bag of Skittles that Orange probably went for Trump, removing the illegal, multiple and dead voters. I also believe he carried Minnesota. We already know the DFL fixed it for Sinator Diapers in 2008.
Hillary carried Fort Bend County, TX, which hadn’t gone RAT since LBJ in 1964.
I don’t know why Cook County, MN hasn’t moved towards the Republicans in the same way as surrounding counties, but Bush carried it in 2000 solely because Nader got over 10%. The RAT + Green percentage hasn’t changed very much in that county.
I can’t remember if I had asked these two questions before:
What Michigan county gave Grover Cleveland his highest percentage of the vote in the nation (or at least in states for which Leip provides county-level data) in each of 1884, 1888 and 1892?
What Michigan county gave Samuel Tilden his highest percentage of the vote in the nation (or at least in states for which Leip provides county-level data) in 1876?
I can’t access the county data on Leip’s site prior to 1960. According to that French website, Tilden got 100% of the vote in a whopping 22 counties in 4 states. Going by the colors, Roscommon and Mackinac (73%) and the defunct Isle Royale & Manitou counties were Tilden’s best in Michigan.
In 1884, again, the French website says Cleveland got 100% of the vote in 10 counties in 3 states, though it appears the defunct county of Manitou gave him the highest vote in the state. Curiously, Gen. Benjamin Franklin Butler got 100% on Isle Royale as the Greenbacker candidate, his highest in the nation.
In 1888, Cleveland got 100% in 12 counties in 4 states, but again, it appears Manitou was his best again in Michigan.
In 1892, Cleveland got 100% in 5 counties (3 in TX, 2 in LA), but once again, Manitou was his best in MI.
It was noteworthy that Manitou County, former site of a Mormon settlement on Beaver Island under a self-proclaimed “King”, was lawless and without an organized government from the time the Mormons were driven away after “King Strang’s” assassination in 1856 until it was formally dissolved in 1895. Strang managed to serve in the MI legislature prior to his murder, as a Democrat (of course).
That’s right, Houston burbs, bastards, DuPage of TX. Wasn’t all bad there though, GOP held every county office and even beat an incumbent rat on the county commission. As you’ve said before if Trump can recover some in the white collar suburbs and hold/expand on the blue collar vote, he’d be in good shape. It’s funny, you could pick out some select counties Clinton won and said “Ok there’s no way she lost the election”, and you could do the same for Trump.
Let’s see, Cook MN rat/Green was 51.8% in 2000, 58.59% in 2016. I’d call that a fairly large increase.
Lake (so weird they have a Cook and Lake bordering each other! Only same name counties to border each other in 2 states?) was 61.02 rat/green in 2000, only 48.62 in 2016.
Carlton was 61.36 rat/green in 2000, 47.74 in 2016.
St. Louis (Duluth) was 65.63 in 2000, 53.06 in 2016.
They are Cooking something bad in Cook. It’s 7.6% Indian but the reservation has been there since the 30’s and Trump improved on Romney’s performance on the reservation by 7 points, low turnout there it looks like.
It’s seat, Grand Marais, sounds like a hippy dippy hamlet and there’s been a 14 point GOP decline there in since 2000. It’s largest township equivalent, West Cook Unorganized Territory (which accounted for over 40% of the vote in 2016) also saw a 14+ point decline in that time frame.
My best guess is it’s a budding resort/hippy area with a lot of lib swine moving in like Teton WY and Alpine CA. Doesn’t take a lot of votes to swing such a small county. Hippies are the problem with Jefferson County WA, someone from there told me, Vermontization.
I think Trump won NH, MN, and NV.
I don’t know about the OC though, 8.6 point margin, I’m skeptical of fraud solely accounting for margins that big, it was probably (enough of) the White rich a-holes splitting tickets, Mimi Rogers had no trouble winning, she got 58% and Trump only 44.5% in her district.
Dead counties are fun.
Isle Royale was the best for Tilden. Leip doesn’t include them after that but I see them dark green for Butler on the French map in 1884 (it’s over 90% and under 100%, I think). The have no info for it after that either, though the county existed until 1897.
Oddly the island is now split between 2 mainland townships so we don’t know how it voted in 2016.
>> Given how Hiram Johnson backstabbed Hughes in 1916 (Johnson’s lack of support cost Hughes CA, and thus the presidency), I don’t think that Hughes would even consider picking Johnson for VP in his second term. Coolidge would have been the obvious choice after breaking the police strike in 1919. <<
Hughes nearly defeated Wilson in 1916, the Teddy Roosevelt/Bull Moose wing of the GOP the defected in 1912 was back aboard and united with the traditional conservative wing of the GOP around Hughes. My understanding is that both Wilson and Hughes went to bed late in the evening on the election night assuming Hughes would the next President, because he was way ahead in the electoral vote. Then the west coast states came in and Wilson eeked out a narrow victory.
Hughes in '16 & '20 followed by Coolidge in '24 & '28 would have been the ideal course for this country. There would be a good opportunity to undo most of the damage of the Wilson error.
I was heading off to bed, I didn’t realize (or remember) those islands were there own counties. Had I not checked that French website, I’d not have noticed. I confirmed that Butler got 100% of the vote in Isle Royale in 1884 by scrolling down to the bottom of the page where they confirmed he got that margin and it was his best county.
Eventually, I’ll get around to researching the Michigan censuses to see what was happening with these counties (I’m stuck on Alaska, researching the countless native villages from 1880 to the present with countless different spellings - at the rate I’m going (I’m almost close to completing all places with the letter “C” and still have an astonishing near 1,400 lines of names and population figures to research. I’m lucky to get through SIX a day, and have managed to uncover numerous errors from the census bureau’s 1940 returns).
I can give you an easy answer what the vote was on Isle Royale, and that’s zero. It doesn’t have any permanent year-round residents. What few that stay there that own property are unlikely to be there in frigid November.
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