Posted on 12/16/2014 4:17:43 PM PST by Clintonfatigued
They haven’t even been sworn in yet, but these members start off the cycle as underdogs in their quests for re-election in 2016.
Most of 2016′s initial targets are incoming Republicans, swept into office in a GOP midterm wave. They will represent districts Democrats carried with big margins in presidential election years — seats the newly minted Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Ben Ray Luján will probably want back. Only one vulnerable Democrat made this list.
What’s more, the window for either party to oust these freshman could close quickly. It’s easier to defeat an incumbent in their first re-election, before they solidify a stronghold on the seat.
(Excerpt) Read more at atr.rollcall.com ...
Leip has Johnson coming in 2nd in 2 counties. Must be very low pop heavily GOP counties so I looked at Texas/Nebraska/Kansas.
King Texas seems to be a tie with him and Shill, 5 votes each and McPherson NE, 14 votes a piece, I guess that’s them, 2 ties for 2nd.
I was remembering your odd bedfellows questions, I didn’t remember the answers so it was fun to do again.
Good place for this unfun fact that some of you guys already know.
This is the first GOP win without VA since 1924 and without NV and CO since 1908. Very sad for those states.
Anyway, let’s see how the 1 term caucus did
1)Brad Ashford (D) GONE!
2)Rod Blum (R) wins by 8!
3)Crescent Hardy (R) Gone due to Reid’s mean machine
5)Kakto (R) WINS IN BLOWOUT
5)Polquin (R) WINS BY 10
It will be a least 239 in the House, 1 LA runoff is R/R, Issa is ahead in CA and so is Bera (D) in the only uncalled Nov races, I have no hope of overcoming Bera’s theft. If Issa holds on and we win the other LA runoff as expected it’s 241, staying above 240 (even with some thefts in MN and elsewhere) is a major accomplishment.
the imp never sleeps ...
guten morgen!
Dude, did you hear Cutler voted for Trump? If only he wasn’t so deplorable at throwing a football though.
At least one race went well on the left coast, GOP picked up the Oregon Sec of State office. First statewide win since ‘02.
Thank God I’ll get to retire one of my strange-bedfellows election questions, with WI finally voting for a different presidential candidate than NY did. I guess I’ll have to ask for the only two states to vote for Nixon in 1972, Carter in 1976, Reagan in 1980 and Dukakis in 1988.
Here’s one for you, Clay County SD and Washtenaw County MI did something interesting President election wise a while back, what was it?
Voted for McGovern in 1972 but for Ford in 1976?
Rod Blum (1st District, Iowa), a true FR-type conservative, won a fairly comfortable reelection in 2016, getting more votes than Trump, who also won the district. The GOP margin in this Dem-leaning district came from white Catholics who voted for Obama previously.
Iowa is trending more conservative, not just more GOP.
Dubuque County (in the 1st) flipping was especially noteworthy. It hadn’t voted GOP for President since 1956. Rod Blum, who hails from Dubuque, failed to carry it in 2014, but did so in this election.
You got it. Pretty sure they were the only 2 such counties in the nation.
Clay is an nasty bugger, hasn’t voted GOP for President since ‘84. Home of the University of South Dakota.
Clay seems to vote GOP for Governor and Senator, though (albeit usually when it’s a landslide for either).
I found a third: Pitkin County, CO voted for McGovern over Nixon by 54.15% to 44.16%, but then voted for Ford over Carter by 53.61% to 39.80%.
As(s)pen? Weird. Nixon took it by 20 points in ‘68.
Hippie douche phase, perhaps. They seemed to fall under the spell of the nutty Hunter S. Thompson. He apparently narrowly lost a 3rd party race for Sheriff there in 1969. It hasn’t voted GOP for President since 1984 and is heavily moonbat now with all the trendy, rich Californians flooding in. Sad to see once reliably GOP Colorado so polluted by evil.
I thought of a new “Strange Bedfellows” question, Bellwethers Edition:
What were the only two states to vote for the winner of the presidential elections in each of 1928 (Hoover), 1944 (FDR), 1948 (Truman), 1952 (Ike), 1956 (Ike again), 1976 (Carter) and 1992 (Bill Clinton)?
Tennessee and Minnesota!
Wow, that’s a good one, took me a while.
You got it. I had to include both Ike elections because I needed 1952 to exclude WV and KY (although I also could have used 1920 for the latter) and 1956 to exclude MO.
Here’s a less convoluted one: What were the only two states to vote for McKinley in 1896, Wilson in 1916 and Dewey in 1944?
North Dakota, and Ohio. They were both naughty in 1916.
Correct again.
Ohio was very naughty, considering Hughes almost won without it and was only down 3 in the nationwide pop vote (thanks to Jim Crow), lost Ohio by almost 8! I don’t think it was ever so pro-rat in relation to the country at large, before or since.
I don’t know what Hughes could have done to Ohioans to deserve that. I mean, WV voting GOP and OH voting Dem? Before the 2000 realignment, that was unheard of. But, as you said, Hughes could have won without OH (having lost in CA by less than 0.4%), and had he done so we wouldn’t have to hear every four years a out how no Republican has won without OH.
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